Transterrestrial Musings

My Theory

Which is mine.

The fact that the roll problem seems to get worse as the burn progresses could be a result of:

higher acceleration as the vehicle gets lighter
less atmosphere as altitude increases, with correspondingly less aerodynamic control
increasing thrust asymmetries as the nozzle erodes

I'm guessing that it's a combination of all of the above and that the vehicle doesn't have enough RCS control authority to muscle past the (unplanned) thrust asymmetries. The pilot is probably fighting to keep the nose pointed forward, and as Brett Buck suggested, yaw and pitch moments are getting coupled into roll.

If so, this is a problem that could be solved with a better engine nozzle design, thrust vector control on the main propulsion (a more expensive fix), more powerful RCS jets, or all of the above.

As I said previously, though, this shouldn't necessarily prevent them from winning the prize, as is.

Burt says it was caused by a "known deficiency":

The unplanned corkscrew maneuver Wednesday was characterized as a "spin-stabilized" roll. Rutan said there’s a "known deficiency" in SpaceShipOne that caused the roll.
Wind that hits an airplane from the side causes the craft to roll as a corrective technique, Rutan explained. The same thing applies to SpaceShipOne as it pierces the upper reaches of the atmosphere, although the rocketship "rolls much too much to correct for that," he said.

That still doesn't make much sense to me. Perhaps a better explanation will be forthcoming.

Posted by Rand Simberg at 07:42 AM

September 29, 2004
Come The Revolution?

Are the Iranians finally starting to throw off the chains of the mullahs?

If so, and it happens before the election, I'm sure that John Kerry will be quite disappointed. He'll probably send Joe Lockhart out to complain that the new government is a US puppet.

Posted by Rand Simberg at 02:24 PM

First Leg Successful

Sorry for not posting sooner, but my DSL connection's been flaky all morning.

I'm concerned about that roll we saw during ascent. I was very concerned when it seemed to be accelerating, but it looks like he got it under control after engine shutdown. I wouldn't fly again until I understood what caused that. I'm pretty sure that I wouldn't want to ride a vehicle that did that, though others' mileage may vary.

It was a little irritating to listen to John Pike on Fox. On the one hand, he actually did seem to be cheering them on, but he's out of date on current events. He told the Fox hosts that DaVinci was planning to fly in the next few days, when they've announced that they're delayed several weeks. It would be nice if media people could get some other names in their space rolodexes than John's.

Maybe more thoughts later.

[Update]

Bruce Hoult (in comments to this post thinks that it's being caused by swirl in the oxidizer flow of the engine. I doubt that. Brett Buck has a different, and more plausible to me (and more disturbing, if correct) diagnosis over at sci.space.policy:

...the problem appeared to be a coupling from yaw to roll - definitely had a significant yaw angle, and the effective dihedral is extraordinarily high with this design - a lot like the lifting bodies that had similar control issues. Maybe that resulted from a yaw thrust vector misalignment, maybe just plain old roll/yaw coupling issues at high speeds. But it seems very unlikely to be something that can easily be fixed.

If he's right, it doesn't mean that SS1 can't win the X-Prize, since it's had two successful flights with the problem. It may mean that they may have to go back to the drawing board for SS2, and that the technology's not quite as in the bag as Mr. Branson thinks. As I said, safety issues aside, I think that the market for a rolling ascent is more limited than for one that's smoother and more controlled.

[Another update, after further reflection on Mr. Pike]

He also blew it when being asked why people find this so exciting, whereas they don't seem to care about NASA. He repeated the old cliche about how NASA has managed the seemingly impossible feat of making spaceflight boring, but his (mis)diagnosis was that this was exciting because we could identify with the pilot, whereas NASA had reduced emphasis on showcasing the astronauts since the 1960s.

No, John. People find this exciting, because it offers a promise that they can go themselves.

[Update at 12:45]

A commenter points out that Mike Melvill says that he screwed up. He doesn't say exactly what he did wrong.

Anyway, that's good news, because it means that they don't have to do any analysis to figure it out, and pilot error is easily fixable, either by making the pilot smarter, or by using a different pilot. I was surprised to see Melvill fly this time--I had the impression that he's gotten his ride in June, and was satisfied to let someone else do it. Now, will he be the pilot on the second flight?

[5 PM EDT update]

Derek Lyons asks if the space community has already lost interest in this.

I don't think so. I'll bet that a lot fewer people came up from LA, because they'd already done it once, and the entry price increased quite a bit over the last one. I do think that there's a sense that it's got enough momentum now, and they are content to watch on the web (combined with the fact that, truth be told, like sporting events, the view is much better from home). I'll bet that once it becomes a real race, like the Ansari Cup, there will be big crowds, and it will be crowds of people who weren't necessarily interested in space.

The most important gauge of public interest isn't how many people physically show up to events like this, but how many marketing deals, and investment agreements get signed, and how much continuing buzz it gets in the major media.

Posted by Rand Simberg at 09:01 AM

Today's The Day

Clark has a schedule of events for the flight, and a roundup of links, many of which indicate that the space tourism business is rapidly picking up steam.

Posted by Rand Simberg at 04:42 AM

September 28, 2004
Tomorrow's Festivities

On the morrow will occur the first flight to win the Ansari X-Prize. It will be live streamed on the web, and here's a Free Republic thread that will follow it with great interest.

As an aside, and for what it's worth, I doubt if there will be a similar one at Democratic Underground (perhaps the first time I've ever linked to anything there), though I have to admit that I don't want to wade through the moral and intellectual swamp at that site to look for one.

Posted by Rand Simberg at 07:29 PM

Hamburger Imperialism

Via email, Clark Lindsey points out a column by Philip Ball at Nature, citing (but not deigning to actually link) yours truly, that is both amusing and sad:

There is no point in being coy about the role of military incentives in the advancement of science and technology. After all, it has a history far older than that of aviation and space science. But this does not suit the narrative the X prize needs, and so the foundation has transformed the story into one of private (yet populist) enterprise battling public (yet elitist) prevarication.
As an example of where this reasoning leads, aerospace engineer Rand Simberg suggests in The New Atlantis that the commercial space age would be further accelerated if the United States were to withdraw from the 1967 Outer Space Treaty, because it "bans declarations of national sovereignty off-planet, and makes the defense of private property rights in space problematic".

How otherwise can McDonalds colonize the Moon (or should that be the Moon®)? Simberg neglects to mention that the treaty also outlaws the militarization of space. But no one would do a thing like that, would they?

This is funny on a couple different levels. First, as Clark writes, "How about we campaign for a moratorium on political references to McDonalds except by ACTUAL sophomores?"

A few days ago, I got an email from someone at NPR, asking me to point him to people who opposed commercialization of space, so that they could present "the other side" for a story on the Ansari X-Prize, since we all know it's always important to present the other side, no matter how whacked out, in order to pretend to have a "balanced" piece. Well, here's a prime specimen.

I didn't mention that the treaty outlaws the militarization of space because, well...it doesn't.

It outlaws the emplacement of weapons of mass destruction on planetary bodies, but there are no strictures in it against military activities per se. Otherwise, it would have outlawed ICBMs, which travel through space to reach their ultimate destination. In fact, I always found it amusing that the anti-missile-defense types wanted to maintain space as a sacred sanctuary through which missiles could pass unimpeded.

Of course, one of the purposes of the treaty was to in fact remove one of the incentives of militarizing space, by rendering all of it to a state in which there was little to defend. I'm not sure that's the best way to spread wealth into the universe, whether in the form of fast food, or human freedom. But based on other comments in his little piece, we already know what Mr. Ball thinks about the latter.

[Update on X-Prize Day]

If you can imagine it, that capitalist universe-destroying monster, Chris Berg, actually likes the idea of a lunar McDonalds.

Me, too, even though I rarely eat there.

Posted by Rand Simberg at 04:39 PM

The Space Tourism Kettle Continues To Boil

I was told (by someone who should know) at the Return To The Moon Conference in Las Vegas in July, that Futron would soon be releasing their proprietary space tourism market research study (based on research by the Zogby polling organization), that they'd previously only been selling for twenty-five hundred bucks.

Well, the day before tomorrow's initial Ansari X-Prize attempt, they've done it. I'll try to read it in the next few days, and provide some thoughts.

[Via Clark Lindsey, who does a much better job that I possibly could in keeping up with this kind of thing]

Posted by Rand Simberg at 12:56 PM

Harnessing The Blogosphere

Speaking of clueless reporters and "experts," Jay Manifold announces a potential blogospheric solution to the problem.

Posted by Rand Simberg at 06:17 AM

Looking For Answers In All The Wrong Places

As Clark Lindsey says, why oh why do the media think that just because someone is a scientist, even a space scientist, he would know anything about space transportation or space tourism? There are many people who do understand this subject, but it's apparently too much work to go seek them out. Instead, they think that they can just go down to the local observatory, or university astrophysics department, and get the opinion of someone that's worth printing. Instead, they often get nonsense, and they don't even know it.

"The idea is great, I like the idea, but I am very aware that even people like NASA find it a challenge. Eventually it will come. Whether it will come in Richard Branson's time, and in his way, remains to be seen," he said.
"I take it as a declaration of intent, to look into it, rather than to take bookings straight away."

What does this mean? If it's a "declaration of intent" (which indeed it is, and a quite forthright one by my reading), then it's more than "looking into it." All of the pieces are in place, now that the technology has been demonstrated by SS1, and Branson is going to put up the money (or raise it from others, which he's fully capable of doing). I suspect that he will be taking bookings, if not "straight away," then certainly within the year, with all the concomitant marketing hoopla and tie-ins.

But it gets worse. He's supposedly a scientist, but he can't even get the science right:

The space tourists would not be completely weightless, he added.
"You can't have an orbit at that altitude, so you could not be totally weightless. It would be probably fairly close to it, but it is not an orbit, it is still within the upper atmosphere."

This is simply false, on two levels. You don't have to get out of the atmosphere to be weightless (though these flights do leave the atmosphere, for all extents and purposes), nor do you have to be in orbit to be weightless. And in fact, as I've pointed out, a suborbit actually is an orbit--it's just one that intersects the planet's surface, so it can't be sustained for long. The passengers will in fact be truly weightless, in free fall, for several minutes.

Of course, part of the problem, and reason that stories like this get published, is that Space Daily doesn't have an editor. It just has a publisher who thinks that it's more important to have quantity of content than quality.

Posted by Rand Simberg at 06:06 AM

September 27, 2004
Freedom Of Research

I think that this is a good thing, for the same reason that Ramesh (presumably?) thinks it bad--because if true, it provides constitutional protection for cloning.

Posted by Rand Simberg at 09:26 AM

Lots Of Good Stuff

...on Virgin Galactic, the Bigelow space prize, and other topics, over at RLV News, that I missed this weekend as a result of the hurricane. Just keep scrolling.

Posted by Rand Simberg at 06:21 AM

Branson Steps Up To The Plate

One more sign that the "giggle factor" is disappearing from space tourism. Richard Branson has been toying with the industry for years, but it looks as though he's finally ready to make his move. I'll be interested to see if Jeff Bezos does anything publicly in response.

Posted by Rand Simberg at 05:26 AM

September 26, 2004
Is There A Mycologist In The House?

One familiar with the southeastern Florida ecology?

Sorry, I'm still too discombobulated to be able to post pics, but I noticed when I went out to survey hurricane damage this morning that one of the changes overnight was a lawnful of mushrooms. There seem to be two varieties (I'm assuming that they aren't variations on the same species). One is flat and gilled, and the other has a circular head. Both are white, and as the day progressed, they developed brown areas on top.

Anyone know what they are, and if having them for dinner would result in delicious nutrition, or a trip to the emergency ward?

Posted by Rand Simberg at 05:30 PM

A Choice Of Disasters

I was interviewed a few days ago by a reporter from the Sun-Sentinel. Surprisingly, it had nothing to do with either space or blogs. He was just looking for people who had recently moved here, to get a newcomer's perspective on hurricanes. He got my name (actually, Patricia's, but she was at work when he called, and I was home) from our next-door neighbor, who is apparently involved with the local Welcome Wagon.

Anyway, here's the result.

Posted by Rand Simberg at 02:31 PM

After The Storm

We were very lucky. I lost DSL about seven last night, and as we were watching the DVD of "Hidalgo" (not my selection) the power went out just as Viggo the Idiotarian crossed the finish line.

After that, as Bulwer-Lytton would write, it was a dark and stormy night. I think that once again, just like Frances, we were in the southern eye wall. No flooding, and by morning, the wind was down to a dull roar, and we could go out to survey damage, of which there was little. We heard on the radio that a million people were without power in Florida, and that eighty percent (of which we were a part) of Palm Beach County was in that state. We didn't expect to get power for a few days, under the circumstances, so I was (almost literally) shocked when it came back on about half an hour ago. So we didn't even lose it for twenty-four hours.

Considering what the folks up north have been through, we feel very, very lucky. We've taken down plywood and shutters, and perhaps we can finally get back to normal. Though, since I've only been here a month or so, this (watching for storms, preparing for storms, going through storms) is starting to feel normal to me. Perhaps now we can get to something much better than normal.

Posted by Rand Simberg at 12:16 PM

September 25, 2004
Saturday Evening Update

I don't know how long I'll be able to continue to post.

Everything is fine here, but we've had several power dropouts, most of them momentary, causing reboots of computers, but one of them was long enought to knock down my laptop. I also lost DSL for a while, but it's come back, so I thought I'd attempt one more post tonight before we're down for good. Or at least for a few hours or days.

The wind continues to pick up. We have a stagnation region just outside the front door, because the winds are coming from the northwest, so it's fun to stand out on the porch and watch the wind and rain across the street. I think it will get worse than this, but not a lot worse, based on the track we're seeing on the television. I'm not done with the post yet, but it seems like a good idea to put it up, in case I lose the connection. Think of it as a "save" that everyone can see.

The DSL connection is hokey, so I don't know how much longer I'll be able to post. In any event, power or not, we'll be good. I wish that I could say the same for those folks farther north.

Posted by Rand Simberg at 05:54 PM

Still OK

We put up the last plywood a few minutes ago--the wind is finally starting to pick up. I debated buying the Game Plan on DirecTV so I could watch the Michigan Big Ten opener against Iowa, but I didn't really want to gamble the twenty bucks when we could lose either power or satellite signal at any time.

The forecast hasn't changed much since this morning--it's still headed north of us. I don't expect any more surge than Frances caused, and the house stayed dry inside the last time. This will be the first time we've ridden one out here, and I expect a noisy night. I'm sure that the shutters and plywood will make a racket like they're about to come off and take the walls off with them, but seeing how they performed with a similar storm only two weeks ago (exactly two weeks ago) will provide us with the confidence to stick it out.

At this point, at least, we're feeling very lucky, and feeling very bad about those north of us. On the other hand, at least they didn't waste a lot of money rebuilding from Frances--they didn't have time.

Posted by Rand Simberg at 12:53 PM

All Buttoned Up

We're just starting to see the first outer rain bands of the storm now. No significant wind yet.

The good news (at least for us, though not for St. Lucie and Indian River Counties) is that, like Frances, it's hitting north of us, so we shouldn't have to worry about storm surge here. The other good news is that it's moving much faster, so the agony won't be prolonged as it was with Frances. The bad news is that it's now Cat 3, with a possibility of intensification to Cat 4 prior to landfall, sometime later this evening or early Sunday morning. It's grown considerably, and it now has a huge (45 miles) eye width, with a hurricane-force wind radius of seventy miles. Whatever Frances didn't take care of, Jeanne will finish off.

We've got both cars, and everything that's not mortared down, into the garage, and just one last bit of plywood will seal us in for the afternoon and night. The winds will probably start to pick up this afternoon, intensifying from tropical force to hurricane into the evening. If it follows the predicted path, we'll be on the southern edge of the hurricane-force winds, and they'll probably last several hours.

We still have power, but I'll be surprised (and thrilled) if we keep it until midnight. I'll keep checking in when I can.

Posted by Rand Simberg at 08:21 AM

September 24, 2004
The Calm Before The Storm

The shutters and plywood are back up, except for one patio door that lets us get out to the grill and pool. We'll cover it tomorrow, as the winds start to develop.

But there's no wind tonight, and a three-quarter moon, waning. The temperature is pleasant. There's no hint that there's a monster lurking three hundred miles away, preparing to wreak havoc on us (or more hopefully, at least for us, those north of us) on the morrow.

The winds should pick up in the morning, and we'll have to check the storm track to see if it's going to continue on its present path toward the counties north of us, including the Cape, or take a bad (again, for us) turn toward us, in which case we'll have to decide whether to stay or run from the flood waters. The winds don't concern us per se, but we don't want to have to be in a position in which we're seeking higher ground within the house, and running out, with the only alternative to get outside in hundred-knot winds.

For now, the forecast is encouraging for us (and proportionately discouraging for those north of us, who also took the brunt of Frances only two scant weeks ago). All the good wishes that you've sent to me, broadcast now to them. Unless, of course, the storm whimsically changes course yet again.

Posted by Rand Simberg at 08:09 PM

Blowhards

You know, I've jokingly blamed George Bush for all the hurricanes we've been getting, but the morons at Moveon.org are doing it for real.

Alan Henderson has more.

Posted by Rand Simberg at 08:58 AM

No Space Race This Month

The DaVinci Project has been put on hold for a few weeks, leaving a clear field for SpaceShipOne to win the Ansari X-Prize in a couple weeks. It's definitely now Burt's race to lose.

Posted by Rand Simberg at 08:55 AM

A Lofty Goal

Andy Borowitz has one for CBS News. It's probably an unfulfillable dream, though.

"After a full investigation of the events leading up to the broadcast of this story, we have concluded that idiots were responsible," said network spokesman Palmer Gravinese. "Consequently, under a new policy of CBS News, idiots will no longer be permitted to participate in the gathering or production of news at CBS."
Adding that the network appeared to be "riddled with idiots," Mr. Gravinese said that CBS had set 2006 as a target for the broadcast giant to be completely idiot-free, but cautioned, "We realize that's an ambitious goal."

Posted by Rand Simberg at 06:16 AM

Light Bloviating Today

And perhaps the weekend, depending on the whims of Jeanne.

Hey, if it's a weekend in southeast Florida, it must be time for a hurricane!

It looks very much like we'll have to put the storm shutters and plywood back up, and prepare for a whole lot of shakin', rain and wind goin' on sometime in the next forty-eight hours. We filled the cars last night--the lines weren't bad, but the Mobil I went to was already out of regular (didn't matter, since the Bimmer takes high-test, though I cheat and only give it 89 octane, with nary a knock).

Off to the store this morning to get the last scraps of food, amidst the panicked hordes. We're actually not in bad shape, since we restocked after Frances in anticipation of Ivan, who on his long excursion seems to have obligingly hit everyone in the southeast except us, and so we still have supplies on hand. We even still have a few bags of ice in the garage freezer. The main thing is perishables (I'd like to pick up a frozen roast and chicken, which serve as ice-chest coolers until they thaw, after which they can be thrown on the grill).

I've decided that this is one more reason to be unhappy with Florida living (not that I didn't already have enough), but it probably is unusual.

I hope. I do know that I'm starting to get stressed out from hurricane fatigue.

Posted by Rand Simberg at 05:17 AM

September 23, 2004
Just A Coincidence

That's what the Kerry campaign says about the timing between the "Fortunate Son" campaign and the Sixty Minutes broadcast.

Right.

Who do these people think they're kidding?

Posted by Rand Simberg at 03:02 PM

Can't Stop Loving You

The Big Trunk has a tribute to the late and justly lamented Ray Charles on the first anniversary of his birthday since his recent death.

Posted by Rand Simberg at 10:23 AM

John Kerry, Nuanced Diplomat

The Senator seems to think that he knows what's going on in Iraq better than the Iraqi Prime Minister.

Of course, he probably just thinks that Allawi is an illegitimate puppet installed by the imperialist criminal Bush regime.

[Update at 2:20 PM EDT]

It was in response to this amazing question by a reporter:

Prime Minister Allawi told Congress today that democracy was taking hold in Iraq and that the terrorists there were on the defensive. Is he living in the same fantasy land as the president?

Did anyone hear this? Was the question serious, or was it veiled sarcasm at Kerry's description of the president's views? I can't tell from just the words--one would have to hear the tone as well.

If the former, if the press thinks that this is helping their candidate, they're living in a fantasy land.

Greg Djerejian has similar thoughts.

It would seem that Mr. Kerry is only interested in cultivating "allies" whose foreign policy is opposed to that of the US, while treating with contempt our actual allies in this war (Britain, Australia, Italy, and now Iraq).

I don't think that's going to play well on November 2nd.

Posted by Rand Simberg at 10:11 AM

The State Of The Kerry Campaign

Mark Steyn has a current snapshot. It's not a pretty picture:

...‘Kerry is a good closer,’ say his pals, which is their explanation for the way he struggles through the campaign and then wins narrowly even in the one-party state of Massachusetts....
...In normal circumstances, you’d send the vice-presidential nominee out to serve as your attack dog and savage your detractors. But because Kerry is aloof and cold, he chose a running mate to supply all the warmth and charm and feel-good fluffiness he himself lacks. Whatever John Edwards’s strengths, he’s no attack dog. While Dick Cheney went around the country snarling devastating cracks about Senator Flip-Flop, Edwards was reduced to pleading for Bush to call off the SwiftVet ads. He looked as though he was about to burst into tears.

There is an attack dog on the Kerry team. Unfortunately, it’s his wife, and folks don’t like that in a prospective First Lady. Teresa Heinz Kerry dismisses her husband’s critics as ‘idiots’ and ‘scumbags’, and Kerry’s new advisers seem eager to limit her visibility. I’ve lost count of the number of Democrat women who’ve said to me that they can’t stand her.

So that was the state of play in mid-September: a candidate in hiding, a lightweight running-mate way out of his league, and a motor-mouth wife duct-taped and tossed into the cellar...

...just in time for the change of policy, comes a new ad from the Swift Boat Veterans for Truth focusing on another cheery snapshot from the John Kerry scrapbook of 35 years ago. This one is about Kerry’s trip to Paris to meet negotiators from the North Vietnamese communist government and the south’s Provisional Revolutionary government. He was a Naval Reserve officer at the time, and many of my correspondents regard it as treason. I’m not in favour of having Senator Kerry put on trial and executed; soccer moms and other swing voters may see that as over-reaching. But John O’Neill, the Swiftees’ spokesman, says, ‘It would be like an American today meeting with the heads of al-Qa’eda.’ Even if that line doesn’t catch on, the ad is nicely timed with Kerry’s Iraqi withdrawal strategy to paint the senator as the candidate of American defeatism, then and now.

I don’t think there’s a majority for that position in the country or in any of the battleground states. But, if you’re John Kerry’s campaign staff, what else is there? The Boston Globe had a story this week with the sub-headline: ‘Advisors Strategize To Boost His “Likability”.’ Good luck with that one.

Registration required, but RTWT.

With regard to Senator Kerry being a "good closer," I heard Donna Brazile say the other day something like "he runs better from behind, like Seabiscuit."

The senator may look a little like Seabiscuit, at least in his facial features, but I don't think he runs like him.

[Update a few minutes later]

Speaking of resembling animals, did you hear Kerry's speeches yesterday? He must have a bad cold. He not only looks like a Frog, but yesterday, he sounded like one.

Posted by Rand Simberg at 07:40 AM

Nice Shot

From Ratherbiased.com:

In other news, TV Barn reports that "60 Minutes" Sunday is going to kick off its new season with a premier episode about "a cruel scam that preys on the elderly." No word on whether Bill Burkett is involved.

Posted by Rand Simberg at 06:34 AM

The New Space Race

The St. Louis Post-Dispatch is running a series on the history of the Ansari X-Prize (based in its home town). Here's the first installment.

[via Alan Boyle]

[Update at 9 AM EDT]

Here's a story about judging the event, with the focus on head of the judging committee (and former NASA astronaut) Rick Searfoss.

Posted by Rand Simberg at 05:58 AM

"My Teleprompter Is Deadly"

Iowahawk has fictionalized (a little) Dan's Unexcellent Adventure. Inspector Rather meets the bloggers.

Posted by Rand Simberg at 05:46 AM

September 22, 2004
Computer Problems Continue

Which is one of the reasons that blogging is light. I ordered a new motherboard that arrived today. It was the same as the one that failed (only thirty-six bucks plus shipping), so I figured it would be a painless swap.

Almost. It loads Windows, and then prompts me for name and password. Shortly thereafter, it bluescreens with a bunch of hex and a message:

DRIVER_IRQL_NOT_LESS_OR_EQUAL

The problem is with a file called portcls.sys

I tried reinstalling Windows, to no avail. I cannot get the system up. Does anyone have any theories? I'm wondering if it's a memory problem, but I don't have any spares of that type to test with.

[Update at 5 PM EDT]

Never mind.

I found the problem. It was some new audio de-vice on this version of the board, that I apparently installed the wrong driver for. I uninstalled it in safe mode, and got the machine up.

I should add that one of the things that added to this joyful computer experience was a relatively new keyboard on which the F8 key didn't work...

Posted by Rand Simberg at 01:46 PM

More On Weightless Flights

Here's a long article by Leonard David.

Posted by Rand Simberg at 12:06 PM

September 21, 2004
Breathtaking

These people are astounding. Or they would be, if they hadn't been indulging in this nonsense for years:

In response to false Republican accusations regarding the CBS documents, Democratic National Committee Chairman Terry McAuliffe issued this statement:
“In today’s New York Post, Roger Stone, who became associated with political ‘dirty tricks’ while working for Nixon, refused to deny that he was the source the CBS documents.

“Will Ed Gillespie or the White House admit today what they know about Mr. Stone’s relationship with these forged documents? Will they unequivocally rule out Mr. Stone’s involvement? Or for that matter, others with a known history of dirty tricks, such as Karl Rove or Ralph Reed?”

My response:

Terry McAucaliffe today refused to deny that he buggers little boys.

Will he admit today what he knows about his relationships with these acolytes of Michael Jackson's? Will he unequivocally rule out his own involvement? Or for that matter, others with a known history of dirty tricks, such as John Kerry or Joe Lockhart?

Posted by Rand Simberg at 06:42 PM

Clueless At Time

Their reporters think that the posters at Free Republic are "bloggers."

Have they learned about those new-fangled motor cars, or are they still using buggy whips?

Posted by Rand Simberg at 06:31 PM

Win Some, Lose Some

I was supporting Boeing during Phase A of the Jupiter Icy Moons Orbiter (JIMO) on technology risk issues, and indirectly supported their Phase B proposal. However, NASA just announced that they're awarding the contract to Northrop Grumman. At least the program is moving forward.

Better luck next time, guys.

Posted by Rand Simberg at 12:36 PM

Thank You

Kirsten Anderson Heffron has an amusing "Dear John letter."

Posted by Rand Simberg at 11:40 AM

Auto Woes

In another consequence of the hurricane, we had a thousand-dollar repair bill on the BMW. Though actually, in a sense, the hurricane may have simply made us aware of a problem that had been ongoing.

As you may recall, I was blogging with power out by running my modem and laptop off a voltage inverter hooked up to the car's battery. On the Saturday morning before we got full power back (even with partial power, I couldn't get the DSL modem to work from the house current), I was letting it idle in the driveway to recharge the battery, while I watched the (infuriating) Michigan-Notre Dame game.

Suddenly, I heard a loud hissing sound in the driveway. I ran outside and the car resembled a steam locomotive, with its hood obscured by all of the dangerous DHMO in gas phase. I looked at the dash, and the temperature gauge was pegged. I shut the engine off, and let it sit.

The next day, I tried topping it off, and the water was pouring out as fast as it was going in, through a crack in the filler tank that had apparently ruptured.

I tried driving it, and while it ran smoothly, it had no power (top speed about ten MPH), which really started to concern me, because I was afraid that I'd warped or cracked the heads on the V-6 (though that didn't make sense, given how smoothly it was running).

I also couldn't figure out how I'd managed to drive it across the country two weeks previously, through the Southwest in the hottest part of summer, with no problems at all, but then have it overheat idling in the driveway.

Then, of course, the little cartoon lightbulb went on over my head. It has an electric fan to pull air through the radiator when the car isn't moving. Most likely scenario--the fan had failed sometime in the past, and I hadn't noticed it because I'd rarely let the car idle motionless for that long previously.

Sure enough, when we took the car to the repair shop, that was exactly what happened--a resistor had gone bad and the fan had quit fanning. Of course, the resistor isn't replaceable--you have to buy the whole fan unit from Wolfsburg, at over three hundred dollars. Also, it was a cascading failure--the incident, in addition to rupturing the plastic fill container, wiped out the water pump by running the bearing dry, and the thermostat. All told, about a thousand bucks, including labor.

The mechanic told us that he hadn't seen this happen before, but it didn't surprise him, because BMW had gone to a single, non-redundant fan about that time. I'm not sure why they don't just drive it off a belt like in days of yore, but I guess most modern car manufacturers prefer to only run it when it's needed, perhaps to not be a useless power drag, since it's rarely needed. I know that I have one on my eighteen-year-old Accord that's never had a problem. And of course, this would have been avoided if I'd been sitting in the car while it was idling, because I probably would have noticed the temperature creeping up (which would have been a much less costly way of discovering the problem than the catastrophic failure that it actually endured). But there's no telling how long it hasn't been working, or how long it would have been before I discovered it, if it hadn't been for Frances.

The good news is that the engine is all right. The power problem wasn't caused by a lack of compression, but by a slight warping of the throttle body so that the valve couldn't open properly. After cleaning it, they got it working again.

Posted by Rand Simberg at 09:57 AM

First-Hand Description

Xeni Jardin scored a ride on one of the inaugural Zero G Corporation flights.

She loved it.

(I'd recommend scrolling down to the bottom first, repeatedly clicking on the previous ones until you get to the beginning, in which she continually describes all the advice that she gets from people leading up to the flight. Then read it in proper sequence by hitting the "back" button for the next page.)

[Via TexasBestGrok]

Posted by Rand Simberg at 05:42 AM

September 20, 2004
Ivan Redux?

The storm apparently did a U-turn up in the mid-Atlantic and headed back down here. It's been dumping rain on us overnight, and through the morning, on its way west. It's headed across Florida and back to the Gulf, where it may reform. Keep an eye out for it, Texas.

Posted by Rand Simberg at 10:05 AM

Launch Regulation Legislation

...is coming down to the wire.

This is an important piece of legislation for the alt-space community, and no one is paying attention to it except us, so any calls that Senators on the Commerce Committee get will be noticed. So get on the horn, particularly if you have one in your state.

Posted by Rand Simberg at 09:31 AM

F%BR#$@&RFG&!!!

That post title is a vague comic-strip rendition of the curse I emitted when, in attempting to get my machine to reboot after freezing, and getting only a series of long on/off beeps, and repeatedly removing and replacing the half meg of RAM in an attempt to get it working again, one of the end clips popped off the socket.

So much for that mobo.

I didn't need this. I particularly didn't need this after moving to Florida, thousands of miles from the nearest Fry's. I even more particularly didn't need this after considering that a new mobo will require a Windows reinstallation, and the disk is still packed away somewhere.

But I suppose this is a good excuse to finally finish unpacking office stuff, and attempt to organize it.

Fortunately, it's not my only machine, but it does have some data on the drive that I'd like access to pronto.

Anyone know a good place to buy a motherboard in Boca Raton and environs? I haven't noticed any computer places here that hold a candle to Fry's (or PC Club, or other similar places in California).

[Update]

D'oh!

That's half a gig, not half a meg of RAM. The machine isn't that old.

Posted by Rand Simberg at 05:59 AM

September 19, 2004
Another Myth Of The Old Space Age

Alan Boyle reports on the inaugural services of Zero Gravity Corporation, an entity that's been attempting to offer weightless flights to the general public in the US for over a decade. It was held up by FAA regulations.

In full disclosure, I attempted to start a business like this about that long ago, but couldn't raise the money to get started. We did offer service for a brief time in a much smaller aircraft, but never managed to expand beyond that, though we had plans to do exactly what Zero G has done, using cargo 727s that could be quickly converted on a daily basis using pallets. But had I known what travails Peter Diamandis and company would have to go through, I probably wouldn't have even made the attempt, and I'm probably lucky that I didn't have to go through it at all.

I want to take exception to a quote that Alan has in his piece, however:

Cosmic Log reader Ayanna Bryan provides a cautionary note:
"As someone who has gone on parabolic flight several times for research purposes, let me assure you that most people do indeed get sick. And it's not just nausea. There are other forms of motion sickness that are very unpleasant and sometimes disturbing.

Some people remain sick for several hours after the two-hour flight. Unless medicated (which has its trade-offs: comfort in-flight for discomfort 6 hours later), the normal human vestibular system is easily affected by sharp changes in gravitational level. Some fliers still get sick after taking the Scopolamine/Dexedrine medication. Some people even 'freak out,' for lack of a better term, once they experience the effects of increased and then decreased gravity.

I hope fair warning is given to paying customers, and I hope the preflight training is good enough to meet Air Force standards. Otherwise someone could get seriously hurt."

As someone who has done extensive research in this business, let me point out that this comment is completely spurious. Research flights have a specific goal in mind--research. Comfort of participants is a distant second to that goal. They don't call NASA's airplane the "Vomit Comet" for nothing, but there's no reason to think that such unpleasant side effects can't be avoided.

For one thing, people who don't have to perform research can use much more effective anti-nauseants than scope-dex. For another, since the purpose of a NASA research flight is to get as much research in as possible, the plane basically flies, and gets in as many parabolas as possible, until it's either low on fuel, or until everyone on board has green gills, and no more productive activity is possible. That won't be the case on these flights, in which the goal is to provide an enjoyable and exciting customer experience. There will be far fewer parabolas, and they will be developed gradually, with low-gravity maneuvers preceding the weightless ones.

If Zero G makes a significant number of people sick, it will be because they're doing something wrong, not because it's an intrinsic feature (or in this case, bug...) of the experience. Sadly, this is just the type of misinformation that makes it so difficult to raise money for space tourism ventures.

[Monday morning update]

Clark Lindsey has similar thoughts, and provides a little tutorial on weightlessness, but it requires one bit of clarification.

The "zero g" effect produced by these flights, just like in orbit, is an apparent one. Earth's gravitational pull doesn't change and remains as strong as ever. (It decreases as 1/(distance squared) as you move away from the planet.)
Over the top of the parabola, both you and the plane are falling together. You are no longer being pressed against the floor of the plane, which is usually keeping you at a fixed distance from the earth via the lift of its wings. (In the valleys of the trajectory, the plane is having to decelerate and reverse you from the speed gained during the falling portion of the parabola. So you feel higher g force in that case.)

In orbit, the same principle applies except you and the vehicle are falling around the earth because your rocket produced enough horizontal speed to keep you from hitting the ground as you fall. That is, the curve of your falling trajectory matches the curve of the earth.

This last sentence is true only for a circular orbit--it's not true in general. For suborbit, or elliptical (or hyperbolic trajectories), there's no relationship between the trajectory and the earth's curvature. But this is not required for free fall.

Essentially, what you feel when you feel "gravity" is the force of some other object (such as your chair if sitting, or the floor if standing or walking) supporting your weight against it. In a free-fall trajectory, the airplane is basically "flying around you," following the path that you would take if you'd simply been launched from a cannon (in vacuum), so it never contacts you and can thus not give you any feeling of weight by supporting you against the force.

One more subtle point. What we call a parabola in so-called parabolic flight isn't a true parabola, mathematically, precisely because of the curvature of the earth. If we were using a flat earth model, in which gravity were a constant, (as Galileo assumed when he first started doing calculations for his pioneering work in ballistics), then it would be a parabola. In reality, it's a small section of a non-circular ellipse (that is, a suborbit would be an orbit with an extremely low perigee, if the earth didn't get in the way). However, over the distances involved in subsonic aircraft, flat earth is a reasonable approximation, and the difference between the trajectory and a true parabola are inconsequential, and probably unmeasurable.

[Update at noon eastern]

Here's a space.com article that describes the (overly onerous, in my opinion) FAA approval process for the flights.

Incidentally, I don't buy the notion that Zero G can really patent the idea of using cargo airplanes during the day for this that fly at night--it seems almost as silly to me as Amazon's single-click system. I doubt if that would stand up in court very long.

Whether it does or not, though it looks like the real barrier to entry to this is the FAA certification process (though now that there's a precedent for the Special Type Certificate it may be easier for a competitor to come in than it was for Zero G, should the market prove robust enough to support one). Space enthusiast Peter Diamandis should welcome this, even if Zero G investor and executive Peter Diamandis doesn't...

Posted by Rand Simberg at 08:36 PM

September 18, 2004
Idiot Tech Support

That's one of my pet peeves. It's very frustrating to get someone in tech support who a) has no knowledge at all other than what's on the checklist in front of them and b) certainly doesn't know as much as you do, particularly when it comes to first principles or logic and c) doesn't know that they don't know, and answer your questions with gibberish, often in a condescending way as though you're the idiot.

This happens all too frequently, and it happened again today with DirecTV.

I've got a weird problem. Intermittently, I'll lose signal on some channels, starting with pixelation and audio breakup, deteriorating into complete loss of satellite signal. The last time I was having a problem like that, in California, it turned out to be a bad LNB, so I went out and bought a new one, and installed it.

The problem persists. Now here's the really strange part.

When I run a test on the individual transponders while it's acting up, the odd-numbered ones are fine, with signal strengths in the nineties. The even-numbered ones are zero across the board. What kind of failure would cause this kind of selective behavior? What's different between odd-numbered and even-numbered transponders that would cause one to be fine and the other useless? I thought it might be something in the logic programming of the receiver, but I hooked another one up, and saw exactly the same behavior.

It seemed like an intriguing problem to me, and I figured that if I talked to DirecTV about it, they'd have some kind of ready explanation. And indeed they might, if you could actually talk to someone who understands how the system works, instead of a drone with a checklist, who not only couldn't explain it, but didn't seem to think it remarkable. He simply kept leading me through his check list. When I explained to him that even was bad and odd was good, he could only repeat, "that means it's seeking signal," as though that actually meant something significant and useful.

The bottom line was that he said he'd send someone out to look at it. On October 12th. I'm tempted to make another attempt to see if this time I can at least get someone with a little intellectual curiousity, and ability to think, but I'm wondering if anyone out there has any insight.

It's not the receiver, it's not the LNB. It could be dish aim, but the problem with this, as with all hypotheses, is that it doesn't explain why I have a perfect signal on odd transponders and zero on the evens. Same thing with a bad cable, which is the only other thing that I can try at my end.

If someone described the symptoms to me, and I had no other knowledge, my first guess was a problem with the transponders on the satellite itself. But that implies that everyone else would be having the same problem, and it's hard to imagine that occurring for long without DirecTV doing something about it.

Anyway, I guess I'll try swapping cables, just because there's nothing else I haven't tried, but if that's the problem, I'll be very interested to understand what kind of cable failure would affect half the transponders, and only those with even numbers.

[Update on Sunday morning]

Thanks for the input. I finally did get in touch with someone at DirecTV who knew what they were talking about, and he told me that the most common reason for this behavior was cabling, with receiver second, and LNB a distant third. He couldn't explain the physics of it, but said that in his experience, it was usually a bent pin on a cable, or some similar problem.

I went out this morning, and started tracing the wire. I found a corroded connector where it goes into the house on the active line. When I moved it to the other side (on a line we aren't currently using), which wasn't corroded, the problem seems to have gone away. I'll have to watch for a while to see if it recurs, but that looks like it was the culprit. I'll have to go to Home Depot and get a replacement for it, and seal it back up out of the weather (it only had electrical tape wrapped around it, which is probably why it went south).

Posted by Rand Simberg at 01:48 PM

September 17, 2004
The Evolution Of Democracy

Twenty years ago, a political science professor at the University of Michigan came out with a seminal book titled the Evolution of Cooperation.

In it, he described how cooperative strategies could have evolutionary-beneficial consequences, and thus be selected for. In particular, via a series of computer game tournaments in which algorithms were submitted to play an extended iterated prisoner's dilemma, he identified a strategy that was the most successful called "Tit for Tat" (TFT). (Read the link for information as to how the game works.)

In this strategy, you retain a memory of past interactions with other entities, and you treat them exactly as they treated you the last time you dealt with them. If they cooperated the last time, you cooperate. If they defected on you the last time, you defect on them the next. If it's your first interaction, you cooperate.

The strategy has four characteristics that made it successful. It's simple and can be clearly and easily recognized after a brief period of time, it's forgiving, it's provocable and retributive (so that you can't get away with screwing it), and it's nice (that is, it never screws anyone for no reason--its default is to cooperate). In essence, it is cooperative, and is rewarded for being that way.

One of the interesting things about it is that the more similar algorithms it has to deal with, the better it does. Put in an environment of non-cooperators, it has a much harder time, but it can still be more successful than them, and if it has a few others to cooperate with, it can survive even in a sea of non-cooperators.

Non-cooperators, on the other hand, don't do well in a cooperative society. A non-nice strategy (one that always, or occasionally, or randomly defects unprovoked) won't do well in a world of TFTs, because after the first time they get screwed by it, they will not cooperate with it again, at least until it changes its ways. So while it gets a big payoff the first time, it gets a much smaller one in subsequent exhanges, whereas the TFTs interacting with each other always get the medium benefit.

Thus, it's possible for a small group of cooperators to "colonize" a larger group of non-cooperators, and eventually take it over, whereas a group of non-cooperators invading a larger group of cooperators will not thrive, and will eventually die out. This is the basis for Axelrod's (and others') claim that there is evolutionary pressure for cooperation to evolve.

This may hold the key to fixing Iraq, and ultimately the Middle East. While there's a lot of bad news coming from that country right now, the fact remains that much of it is calm and at peace--that part doesn't make the news. It may be that nationwide elections won't be possible in January, but certainly it should be for some regions (particularly the Kurdish region).

The Jihadists and ex-Ba'athists are determined to prevent a democracy from forming there, but if such can be established in large areas, it will provide an unnurturing environment for them there. Then we can gradually expand them, and tighten the noose around the Fallujahs over time. What we have to pay attention to is not the level of violence, but over how widespread a region it is. As more and more of the country becomes not only pacified, but wealthier, with a stake in continued peace and freedom, we can continue to shrink the territory in which the terrorists, the ultimate non-cooperators, can survive, and eventually kill them or starve them out.

Posted by Rand Simberg at 02:52 PM

September 16, 2004
The New Saudi Arabia?

Mark Whittington asks if that's what the moon will be in the twenty-first century. He also misspells Gerard O'Neill's name in the process...

I assume that he means in the energy-production aspect, not the exporting-murderous-nutballs-with-a-misogynistic-fascist-ideology aspect.

Maybe, but we're a long way from it, both in terms of the cost of getting there, and in developing the technologies to make it happen. I think that it's a race between using space for energy, and developing radical new technologies on earth that will make that unnecessary, and I don't have my money on either one right now.

Posted by Rand Simberg at 08:34 AM

September 15, 2004
It Strikes Me...

...in reading some moronic commentary on Usenet about Dan's Unexcellent Adventure, that this little incident provides a pretty fool-proof intelligence test. Anyone who still believes, at this point, that the documents are genuine, or even could conceivably be genuine, has to be an imbecile.

Of course, someone who believes that they may be false, but now considers them irrelevant because the underlying story must still be true (and conveniently, because they're obviously forged), is simply bereft of logic or ethics.

Posted by Rand Simberg at 07:00 PM

Just When We Thought It Was Safe To Take Down The Shutters

Here comes Jeanne, pointed right at us.

Posted by Rand Simberg at 12:17 PM

CBS Stands By Imperial Wardrobe Claims

NEW YORK (APUPI) In the face of rising, even overwhelming skepticism, Dan Rather and CBS News refuse to back down from his blockbuster story that the Emperor wore a new set of clothes in last week's parade. His network remains one of the last holdouts from the growing consensus that His Highness was, in fact, ambulating down the street completely naked.

"We choose to believe the numerous eyewitnesses who saw the Emperor's new clothes before they changed their story," explained a CBS spokeswoman.

The imbroglio started last week when Sixty Minutes did a hard-hitting piece on the latest imperial fashion, with extensive footage of the Emperor as he strode down the street, waving to his subjects. Shortly after the piece aired (though NPR, pointing to a plot on the part of the nudity lobby, and being unable to distinguish between time zones, claims that it actually occurred prior to airtime), a small boy put up a post at the anti-imperial Free Republic website claiming that the Emperor was actually not wearing any clothes at all.

"I've been examining the footage of the parade," he wrote, "and if you look carefully, you'll see that almost every square inch of his skin is exposed. It looks to me as though he's not even wearing any underwear, either boxers or briefs. I think that in a couple shots you can actually see his doodle."

It was apparently a thought that hadn't occurred to anyone else, at least at first, and this post didn't receive much attention initially, but a few people started emailing it to some bloggers, who on the next day noted the potential sartorial discrepancy and invited comments from their readership. As others went back to reexamine the CBS footage, the web sites started to become deluged by emails from fashion experts all over the country.

Heated arguments took place on line, with sites like The Daily Kos arguing that the clothes were simply so fine that that they just appeared to be transparent. One commenter at that site named "Joe the Fashion Guy," who claimed to have worked with famous Parisian designer Foofoo LaDerriere, pointed out that it was quite common for celebrities' clothes to present the illusion of nudity. Subsequent investigation, however, determined that he was simply a night watchman in the LA Fashion District.

Some bloggers and other web site owners did their own experiments, taking pictures of themselves with and without clothing, and posting the results to demonstrate the difference. Many of them used animated gifs to offer instant A/B comparisons.

The results ranged from fascinating to frightening, resulting, in some of the latter cases, in charges of grotesque internet obscenity. For additional contrast, some of them demonstrated a state in between, by donning pajamas. The other networks and newspapers started to pick up the story. As a result, over the course of a couple days, it became clear to most non-imperial partisans that His Majesty had suffered a major-league wardrobe malfunction, and that CBS had been snookered.

Despite this, the network and Rather stuck to their guns. They dragged out other footage of prior clothed instances of His Majesty, and noted that even if that particular footage displayed a naked emperor, it didn't matter, since the general story was true. Flanked by the imperial tailors, they also attacked critics as partisan, and opposed to the vital, albeit expensive, imperial clothing budget.

One of the few publications to stand by the network, the Boston Globe, ran a story in which it quoted Mr. Blackwell as saying, "The Emperor was clearly completely and resplendently clothed during the entire event." The famous clothes critic later complained that he was misquoted.

"If by 'completely and resplendently clothed,' they meant 'naked as a jaybird,' then I guess they got the quote correct," he told this correspondent.

"In fact, after examining the footage to be used in the piece, I actually warned CBS that the Emperor wasn't wearing any clothes before it aired, but they didn't pay any attention to me. I told them that I couldn't verify the authenticity or fashionability of clothes that didn't exist, but they chose to go ahead anyway."

Columnist Maureen Dowd at the New York Times tried to help out as well, quoting one of the critics as saying, "I...think...the Emperor was not...naked."

But by the end of the week, the strain was clearly getting to the CBS staff. "Who are you going to believe, me, or your lying eyes?" snarled the veteran anchorman in a brief press conference last week in front of CBS headquarters.

"We don't have to prove that the Emperor was wearing any clothes. It's up to our critics to prove that he wasn't."

Recently, though, there have been some signs that the network may be preparing to back down from some of its more extreme clothing claims. A spokesperson said today that "...we stand by the general theme of our story, and we certainly believed at the time that the Emperor was finely garbed. We believed that the clothes were authentic, and it remains inconclusive whether or not he was actually dressed at that particular point in time."

In related news, the FCC is investigating the long display of nudity during prime time, and is expected to levy fines that make the half-million paid by CBS for the Janet Jackson Superbowl incident look like couch-cushion change.

Posted by Rand Simberg at 04:51 AM

September 14, 2004
New Network Problem

My server is having trouble with DNS. It can ping the internet by IP, and when I ping by name, it makes an attempt and echos the IP, but cannot ping. My /etc/resolv.conf file contains only "nameserver 192.168.2.1" which is the address of the wireless router.

Am I doing something wrong?

[Update]

I finally found the DNS servers for AT&T. When I put them in resolv.conf, everything seems to work fine. Thanks for the suggestions.

Posted by Rand Simberg at 09:22 AM

Networking Problem

I've got a weird (at least to me, I'm hoping that it will be obvious to someone else) problem with my network.

I'm running an 802.11(g) router. I've got my server and my desktop ethernetted to it, and I'm using my laptop in wireless mode. All machines are seeing the router fine (and getting Internet access), but the laptop is not able to see the other two machines and vice versa on the network. The laptop can ping everyone, but the laptop cannot be pinged. I'm running in encrypted mode on the wireless connection, and wondering if that might be the problem. It doesn't seem like it should be, because I would think that the signal is being decrypted by the router and available through ethernet.

Does anyone have any ideas?

[Update]

D'oh!

I'd changed my network from 192.168.1.* to 192.168.2.* and forgot to tell Zone Alarm on the laptop.

Problem solved.

Posted by Rand Simberg at 08:07 AM

September 13, 2004
Too Much Time On Their Hands?

Did I miss the story about all political prisoners being released from prisons in dictatorships around the world? Has torture come to an end on the planet?

If not, then how to explain Amnesty International's new-found preoccupation? Remind me of their priorities next time they send me a fund-raising letter.

[Update on Tuesday morning]

In comments, Derek Lyons writes:

...if any of you had actually paid any attention to AI over the years, you'd know well that the US isn't a 'new found obsession', nor is their sole focus...
...If Rand actually bothered to read the article he linked to, he'd find the report was issued by AI-USA, not AI. I myself find it unsurprising that a 'local' group concentrates on 'local' issues.

I must have missed the part where I said the US was a "new-found obsession", Derek. I was referring to racial profiling, not the US. I know that AI has long considered the US to be the major human rights violator on the planet.

The point isn't about it being a "local issue." It is about dealing with trivia when there probably are people actually unjustly in prison, even in this nation. Why don't they do something about the prison rape problem, which would be more in line with their original charter? I see this as mission creep to justify their existence and fund raising.

Posted by Rand Simberg at 11:44 AM

A New Human Launcher?

Jeff Foust has an overview at The Space Review today about a new concept that many (including many in the astronaut office) are pushing as a CEV delivery vehicle--an SRB-based design, with a new J-2 powered upper stage. This is what many are calling a "single-stick" vehicle, as opposed to the EELVs with their strap-on boosters.

I actually agree that such a system could be built, and could have a (marginal) cost of a hundred million per flight (though it's not clear what the actual cost per flight would be, including amortization of the development costs). However, the issues aren't quite as simple as the proponents make out.

A major drawback of using an EELV to launch the CEV is that neither the Atlas 5 nor the Delta 4 are “human-rated”, that is, not designed to carry people. At the time the Air Force developed the EELV program, it was never envisioned that these vehicles would carry people: that was a task to be left to the space shuttle or its reusable successors then under consideration. Exactly what’s required to human-rate either vehicle is uncertain, but most engineers and analysts believe it will require considerable work on both vehicles to increase redundancy and lower the risk of a fatal accident.

Well, actually, while it would be nice to get better reliability than the currently advertised 98%, the real issue in human rating an EELV is having an effective Failure Onset Detection System (FOSD) that gives warning of an incipient problem in time for the flight abort system (FAS) to be activated. If the vehicle instantaneously blows up underneath the (human) payload, it won't do any good to have an escape rocket. Such a system doesn't exist in the current vehicles, at least not one that satisfies the true requirement. The other issue, in the case of the Atlas, is that the solids can't be shut down, and this implies a risk of being chased by them even after the FAS is initiated.

Which brings us to using an SRB.

Horowitz and others at NASA are not the only people speaking out in favor of using an SRB-derived vehicle to launch the CEV. As one might expect, ATK Thiokol, the company that builds the SRBs, is a supporter of the idea [I'm shocked, shocked-- ed]. “A human rated and flight proven CEV launch system can be available by simply utilizing a single booster combined with a liquid engine second stage,” Mike Kahn, vice president of space operations at ATK Thiokol, said in May during a hearing of the Senate Commerce Committee’s space subcommittee.

Here's a dirty little secret. The SRB isn't human rated either. The Shuttle itself is not, and never has been. There is no FOSD system in the SRB, because there is no way to do a flight abort while the SRBs are burning. The first abort opportunity (Return to Launch Site, or RTLS) comes after SRB burnout. So from a human rating standpoint, an SRB-based system won't be an improvement over EELV. The only potential advantage of this system is a theoretical one--improved reliability. I say theoretical because no one really knows what the reliability of the EELVs are, at least based on empirical data.

On the other hand, it's not an obviously worse system.

Of course, my humble opinion is that we should figure out how to get people up on systems that are fully reusable, and end this retro fad to rush back to the sixties, when things may have been successful and even "safe," but they certainly weren't affordable. Or sustainable. This concept won't be either.

[Update a couple minutes later]

Taylor Dinerman agrees with me that we need space transports, and argues that the military should be figuring out ways to encourage their development, which could make CEVs on expendables expensively superfluous.

Posted by Rand Simberg at 06:33 AM

One Less Idiocy

The "Assault Weapons" Ban is no more, as of a few hours ago.

It did have one salutory effect, though--it helped knock the Democrats out of power in Congress for the first time in four decades. One of the few good things that Bill Clinton actually did for the country.

Would that all of our laws had sunset clauses.

[Update at 10 AM EDT[

It's official.

Posted by Rand Simberg at 05:51 AM

September 12, 2004
Not Quite In Time For The DNC

And Dan Rather.

Microsoft Forger. A product no "ends justify the means" demagogue can do without.

Posted by Rand Simberg at 07:30 PM

The Last Word On Authenticity

That's what this should be. Unfortunately, there are too many people determined to go down with the Kerry/Rather Swift Boat to allow it to be.

Also reader Mike Puckett points out that the reward for the ability to reproduce these documents with equipment available in that era (let alone likely to be found in a National Guard office and usable by an officer) is now up to over seventeen thousand dollars. Come on, "Hunter", it's easy money, right?

Posted by Rand Simberg at 03:48 PM

Finally

We've got full power. The air conditioning is on, we have hot water, I've got my computer network back up, and I don't need to run my laptop and DSL modem off my car battery to get on line. We're doing a huge backlog of laundry.

I was afraid that it would take much longer than this, because there are still many in south Florida with no power at all, and I didn't think that there would be any priority for people who at least had lights. Fortunately, one of the trucks from the Cincinnati power company that are among the many from other states helping out drove down our street, and had a spare transformer for us.

Posted by Rand Simberg at 12:30 PM

The Story Continues To Evolve

At least for me.

It started on Friday as a story about whether or not the memos were forged. That part didn't last very long, as it quickly became clear to all but the koolaid drinkers that they were. Ignoring the next question of whodunnit, it has now evolved into something much more fascinating--just how far in the tank will some people (particularly some people who are long-time anchors for a major network news organization) go to continue, absurdly, to defend the authenticity of the documents?

Dan, of course, now has two motives to try to defend his story--to continue his original goal of damaging (hopefully fatally) the president's chances for reelection, but now also to maintain whatever vestiges of respect for him exist among the American public, too many of whom have taken him too seriously for too long. As others have pointed out, the demographic that pays any attention to him is dying off, and younger people are getting their news from cable and the net, so perhaps he feels he has little to lose at this point, and still hopes to convince enough simpletons that there really is substance to his new take on the "Bush AWOL" story.

"Hindrocket" over at Powerline makes an interesting, and dismaying analogy of CBS and other partisan news organizations as suicide bombers. There used to be a time when, regardless of how clearly biased people like Dan Rather were, we could count on some sense of self-preservation on their part to keep them ultimately in line. This episode makes him (and me) wonder if that is no longer the case, with a number of disturbing implications.

Just as our newfound knowledge that some people were willing to kill themselves in order to kill us led us to have to change our tactics in airport and other security, the thought that some news organizations are willing to destroy their credibility in pursuit of their political objectives should cause us to rethink our relationship with them as well.

Posted by Rand Simberg at 09:55 AM

September 11, 2004
Dodged A Bullet, Again

But by a wider margin.

It looks like Ivan is headed into the Gulf. It may still affect Florida, but the most probably target is the Panhandle, and both weather.com and accuwearther.com have taken southeastern Florida out of the target zone. That's good, because we didn't need another one, particularly so soon, but it may be hard on people in the panhandle, or the Gulf Coast in general. Send them your best wishes, and donations.

Posted by Rand Simberg at 04:30 PM

Pathetic

I know, you think that's my one-word description of those idiots continuing to defend the memos.

It is, but the purpose of this post was to describe the play of the Wolverine offense against Notre Dame throught the third quarter.

The play calling is atrocious, and when it's good, the execution sucks. They only seem to have two pass plays--a low-percentage long ball down the field, or a short play almost deliberately contrived to avoid being caught beyond the first-down marker. The Irish O-line is making Michigan's look like schoolgirls. Unable to score a touchdown, they may still win this, but they sure don't deserve to. And if they do, it will be the defense and special teams (at least the field-goal kicking unit, and ignoring the guy who tripped Breaston for the fumble) who will be responsible, not the offense.

[Update]

Talk about dumb play calling. Why didn't Notre Dame go for two, after that gift of an interception? Now Michigan can (at least in theory) win it with another field goal (the only offense they're capable of today).

[Update]

A draw play on third and nineteen? A draw play on third and nineteen?!!!!!

Sure, why not.

They deserved that blocked punt. Why not give them the gift of another TD? I mean, it's not like they had any plans to score any more this game anyway.

[Update]

Clearly, the offense needs a lot of work. They are not going to win this game. The only chance at this point is a returned interception.

It's nice to excuse them because they lost Underwood early, but if your offense becomes totally ineffective because you lose your best runner, you don't have much of an offense. Losing Underwood would explain a couple touchdowns in the margin, but not the inability to get into the end zone completely. At least not for a team with the bench depth that Michigan should.

[Update

OK, so they've scored again, off another turnover. Why not?

You can't blame the defense for this (you can rarely blame the defense for a Michigan loss). They're worn out. They've been on the field for far too much of the time, because the offense is...what was the word again? Oh, yeah, up in the post title.

[Update]

OK, as usual, they tease, getting a TD two and a half minutes before the end of the game. Of course, just to tie, they have to get two points after, and repeat the feat...

[Update]

OK, they get the two points, but miss the on-side kick. Now, of course, I have to watch to see if the defense can make a last stand.

[Wrapup]

As I said, the offense lost this game. The Dee did as well as possible under the circumstances, but the O came alive a few minutes too late.

This isn't the end of the season, but it's probably the end of any hopes of a (mythical) national championship for the Woverines this year (unless they go the rest of the season undefeated, and Notre Dame ends up number one at the end of the season).

Carr has to take his O coach to the woodshed, and perhaps even considering replacing him. As I said in the post title, this was a pathetic performance on the part of the Michigan offense.

Posted by Rand Simberg at 03:20 PM

Three Years Later

I've little to say on this third anniversary, except to note with sadness that much of the nation still doesn't seem to realize that we're at war. Moreover, many of those lacking that realization include much of the so-called mainstream press (as exemplified by the latest fraud and shenanigans at CBS News), and much of one of the major parties, including its candidate for president. In the midst of watching Islamic fanatics slaughter schoolchildren and take down airplanes in Russia, he proposes a Department of Wellness.

As I've said many times, I have many problems with the currrent administration, even including at many times its execution of the war in which we're unwillingly engaged, and wish that there were a realistic alternative to it--I'd vote for it in a heartbeat. But in nominating John Kerry (and being congenitally unable to nominate a serious wartime candidate, like Joe Lieberman), the Democrats leave me little choice, because as long as we haven't addressed the root causes of the events of three years ago (and no, they're not poverty, or American imperialism, cultural or otherwise), I will not feel safe with anything resembling today's Democrat Party in power.

A general once said that war consists a bunch of shitty choices. Apparently that often applies to politics as well, at least in a two-party system. As such, my choice will have to remain the man who stood amid a pile of rubble almost three years ago, and told us that he heard us, and that soon those who had created that pile would be hearing us too.

[Update]

Unsurprisingly, Glenn has some thoughts as well, with some pictures that are a sobering reminder of that day.

Posted by Rand Simberg at 06:28 AM

September 10, 2004
The Best Clippie Yet

Can be found here.

Posted by Rand Simberg at 03:04 PM

The Documents Are Genuine!

And there are no US troops in Iraq, anywhere!

"Registered" over at Free Republic has the scoop on Gunga Dan's replacement.

Posted by Rand Simberg at 01:03 PM

A Latter-Day King Canute

We discussed various means of mitigating hurricanes in the comments to this post, but now comes a southern Florida businessman with a different idea.

Color me extremely skeptical. My confidence is less than buoyed by his association with Ed Mitchell, definitely one of the wackier Apollo astronauts, but hey, it's his money, and if by some miracle it works, great. Of course, we won't ever really know if it works, at least for this particular storm, because there's no control on the experiment (i.e., we'll have no idea what would have happened if he hadn't done anything).

Posted by Rand Simberg at 12:52 PM

Help For Dems From Redmond

"N. TheKnow" at Free Republic has discovered a previously undocumented feature of Microsoft Word (scroll down to the seventh posting).

[Update at 11:21 AM EDT]

Here's another version.

Posted by Rand Simberg at 07:42 AM

"The Parade We Never Had"

Kate O'Beirne has a movie review worth reading.

Posted by Rand Simberg at 06:34 AM

The Next Question

...of course, is who did it? Leaving aside the Rove conspiracy theories (does anyone other than Chris (the Weasel) Lehane take that seriously?), the motive is certainly clear. To genuinely smear (I use that phrase to distinguish it from the criticism of Kerry that has been mischaracterized as a smear) George Bush in hopes that they can knock his numbers down.

If they did get it from the DNC, I'd like to be shocked, but after everything that happened throughout the nineties, it's no longer possible to be. But in just what kind of moral and intellectual swamp does such a creature reside who would do such a thing? Clearly, now as in the Clinton years, political victory trumps truth and honor.

The other question, of course, is why were they so dumb to think that they'd get away with what looks to be, in retrospect, an obvious forgery, for a large number of reasons? Sure, they could expect dumbbell Dan to eagerly run with it unexamined, but did they really think that no one else would notice? It is worth asking, though, if absent the blogger analysis, the other nets would have questioned it, or if they would have just echoed CBS.

Of course, if one wants to get into weird conspiracy theories, there are other people besides Karl Rove who would like to see Kerry's campaign destroyed if it can be done without their fingerprints on it. Their legal residence is Chappaqua, New York.

[Update at 1:20 PM EDT]

Gerard Vanderleun has further thoughts.

Posted by Rand Simberg at 06:26 AM

Pet Peeve

Of which I'm reminded amidst all the discussion about the forged documents--people who don't know the difference between a typeface and a font, including journalists, who should know better. Microsoft and the computer industry have blurred the distinction that was once very clear to the printing community.

Times Roman is a typeface, people.

Times Roman twelve-point italic is a font.

Posted by Rand Simberg at 06:06 AM

Guess They Don't Have Internet Access

After everything that happened yesterday, and backtracking by CBS, the Boston Globe is continuing to cite the forged documents to libel the president:

CBS also produced documents that appeared to show that in 1973 Bush's superior officer complained of being pressured to ''sugar-coat" an annual officer evaluation for Bush even though Bush had not been at the base for the year in question.

Maybe we should have a little pledge drive to raise some money to get them a modem.

Posted by Rand Simberg at 05:48 AM

September 09, 2004
Desperation

With Kerry's poll numbers continuing to tank, and his negatives hitting an all-time low, the DNC, along with its 527s and its enablers in the media, are taking one more desperate run at Dubya's National Guard record.

Hilarously, it looks like they're doing so with forged documents. I find it highly unlikely that:

a) Anyone in the Air National Guard would be using a typeball with a superscript "th" in it in the early '70s.

b) The same machine on which this magical typeball existed would also do proportional font (and break lines exactly the same way a word processor would and

c) any document typewritten in that era would be capable of being overlaid with a present-day Word document with exactly the same wording.

I have a high level of confidence at this point that the documents that Dan Rather and Sixty Minutes thought were going to salvage Kerry's presidential campaign were forged. Moreover, I think that the CBS eye has to be looking very black right now, and their credibility in the toilet.

It's been said before, but it bears repeating. If Kerry loses this election (as seems increasingly likely), it won't be his loss alone. It will be a watershed event in which the Internet took down the mainstream media, destroying their increasingly unjustified reputations for either objectivity or accuracy. They will be the real casualties in this election, and it will put the lie to Evan Thomas' notion that their support is worth fifteen points. At the rate they're going, their best shot at getting Kerry elected is to start supporting the president, in an attempt to damage him as much as they have their own anointed candidate.

I have to say that it couldn't happen to a more deserving pack of sanctimonious twits.

Posted by Rand Simberg at 03:15 PM

Woohoo!

The power just came on, for the first time in five days.

Just in time to be knocked out by Ivan on Monday...

Time to shut down this jury-rigged laptop/car-battery setup and get the network back up.

[Update a few minutes later]

Good news: we have power.

Bad news: the air conditioner isn't coming on. I've checked the breaker, and it's closed. Any ideas?

[Update at 5:30 PM EDT[

Since the AC was working before the storm, and we turned it off before it hit, while we still had electricity, I'm guessing that there's nothing wrong with it. My working hypothesis right now, based on other flaky behavior of other appliances (I still can't work the internet off the house power--I'm plugged back into the car again), is low voltage. I measured out at the fuses of the air conditioner, and it was lower there than it was one of the 110 sockets in the house (I think that it's supposed to be 240). The neighbors are having similar brownout issues. It may be that we're only getting voltage on half the line.

At least we have light now, and ceiling fans. We'll see if the fridges get cold.

Posted by Rand Simberg at 12:40 PM

Really Bad Timing

For my move to Florida, if this article is correct.

Scientists say we are in a period of enhanced hurricane activity that could last for decades, ending a 24-year period of below average activity. They also say the law of averages has caught up with Florida, with a change in atmospheric steering currents turning the state into a hurricane magnet.

Great.

Ivan probably won't be the last storm to have us in its boresight this year.

It makes me start to wonder how big, or how many nukes it would take to disrupt these damned things, or if that's even feasible (ignoring, of course, the radiation issues)?

[Update a minute or so later]

As if they didn't have enough to deal with, with a Category 5 hurricane bearing down on them, the Caymans and Jamaica just had a Richter 6 earthquake.

I, of course, blame George Bush.

Posted by Rand Simberg at 11:01 AM

He's Slipped His Straight Jacket Again

Al Gore, that is.

His latest rant is stunning in its chutzpah:

"The claim by Bush and Cheney that the American people must give them four more years in office or else be 'hit hard' by another terrorist attack is a sleazy and despicable effort to blackmail voters with fear,'' Gore said.
"They are going back to the ugliest page in the Republican playbook: fear,'' he said. "They're not even really trying to convince you to vote for George Bush. Their only hope, they've decided, is to try and make you too afraid to vote for John Kerry. It's the lowest sort of politics imaginable. It is not worthy of a presidential candidate.''

This from a man who, in 1996, bellowed at the nation that if the Evil Republicans retained Congress, that they would poison the air and water, starve schoolchildren, and force old folks to eat kibbles and bits, before throwing them out of their homes. This from a man whose party ran radio ads in St. Louis claiming that "more black churches would burn" in the event of a Republican victory.

This only elicits one more sigh of relief that he didn't win in 2000.

Posted by Rand Simberg at 10:56 AM

It Can Have Him

"The World Wants Kerry."

For president. That's what the Beeb says.

It sounds like he's running for the wrong office. He should be gunning for Kofi's job. It's certainly one to which he's more temperamentally suited.

Posted by Rand Simberg at 10:27 AM

Still Wishful Thinking

Here's the web site of a group that claims to want to influence Senator Kerry's space policy. I don't really know what they have to say, though, since they make one fill out a form to even look at their site. It turned me off, and I suspect I'm not alone.

Dumb.

Keith Cowing has further thoughts on their apparent ignorance of (or indifference to) campaign finance laws. Of course, to be fair, many Democrats seem to think that such things only apply to the other side. You know, free speech for me, but not for thee.

Posted by Rand Simberg at 08:50 AM

September 08, 2004
The Path Not Taken

The post title is the title of my (long) essay on space policy, that's finally appeared on line in this quarter's issue of The New Atlantis. It's a survey of the myths of the old space age, and will probably form the basis for a book on which I'm working, between hurricanes, still moving into the new house, and trying to make a living.

And no, before anyone asks, I don't in fact know why it's right justified, and ragged left. Go ask the folks at The New Atlantis.

[Update a few minutes later]

The ragged left problem seems to be the use of non-standard HTML. It looks OK in Explorer--it's only weird in Mozilla.

[Update on Thursday morning]

The justification problem has been fixed by the good folks at The New Atlantis (a publication that I highly endorse, and recommend that folks get a dead-tree subscription to, so you can get it early and often).

Posted by Rand Simberg at 07:33 AM

Checking In, Tentatively

OK, I'm blogging from the house now. I've got a power converter plugged into the cigarette lighter of the car, and am running my laptop, DSL modem and wireless router off it. I'll have to go out periodically to start the car to keep its battery charged.

It turns out that I could have done this yesterday (and Monday, too), but when I tried it then, I couldn't get a DSL connection. Today it occurred to me that in an attempt to get phone service, someone may have plugged in a phone that didn't require AC power, and forgot to use a microfilter. Sure enough, that was the problem. Once I fixed it, I got a steady light on the DSL.

Anyway, I'm sort of back in business, with a telecon this afternoon for some consulting, and I have a computer again, for now. There's no word on when we'll get power back here, but with our recent luck, I suspect that it will be just in time to knocked out by Ivan (the Terrible?) this weekend.

Time to go out and restock the water supply.

Posted by Rand Simberg at 06:15 AM

September 07, 2004
Checking In, Temporarily

Thanks to Bill for updating all y'all yesterday (see, I'm starting to pick up the local lingo here, except that it should actually be New Yorkese, not redneck).

I've a lot to tell, but not a lot of time to tell it, because we still don't have power, or internet. I'm posting this from Patricia's trailer at the Tri-Rail project, which obviously had higher priority for power restoration. Much of Boca Raton remains without electricity. As Bill said, the house is fine. We have telephone and water, but no power. I hooked up a power converter from the car to the DSL modem, and we don't have connectivity to the net, else I'd be blogging from home via the car battery.

We lucked out, because the storm both weakened and hit north of us, eliminating any risk of flooding from the surge. We have a few shrubs broken, but are otherwise unscathed. However, we will keep most of the shutters and plywood up until we see what the ultimate disposition of Ivan will be.

In short, we dodged a bullet, but we may not be so lucky next time, and our hearts go out to those who were hit much harder to the north.

Much more when we get power and bandwidth.

Posted by Rand Simberg at 06:20 PM

September 06, 2004
Frances Update

Hi, I'm Bill Simon, webmaster of Transterrestrial Musing. I have just spoken with Rand and I want to let you know that Rand and Patricia are doing okay in the aftermath of Hurricane Frances. There was minimal wind damage to their home and no flooding. I am writing this because, as of this post, they are still without power and have no estimate as to when it will be back on. As such Rand's computers are down. The house is still boarded up, however, as they keep an eye on Ivan.

That's it for now. Rand will post as soon as he gets a chance.

Posted by Bill Simon at 01:52 PM

September 04, 2004
Did Someone Say Bounce?

Like a superball. The poll was taken after the president's convention speech:

-- In New York City, the number of adults who say Bush will win jumped from 39% on 7/22 (the week before the DNC) to 58% today: 19 points up for Bush, 17 points down for Kerry.
-- In Los Angeles, the number who say Bush will win jumped from 38% on 7/22 to 59% today: 21 points up for Bush, 18 points down for Kerry.

-- In Pittsburgh, Bush went from 44% to 64%: 20 points up for Bush, 19 points down for Kerry.

So much for the conventional wisdom that the electorate was "locked in place" and there were no undecideds, and no room for a bounce (which was the MSM excuse for the fact that Kerry didn't get one).

There's no way for the numbers to change this much except for former Kerry voters moving to Bush. I see no sign that Kerry has the ability or strategy to get them back. They say that the voters don't start paying attention until after Labor Day. It looks like they may have started a few days early this year, and they may have finally started to take a good look at the junior Senator from Massachusetts.

What's most interesting to me about this poll is the huge number of people who have written Kerry off. If that sentiment holds on election day, and people don't believe that the election will be close, the wreckage will be even worse, because the Mooreheads will feel free to vote for third-party candidates like Nader or whoever Peace and Freedom puts out there. We may, in fact, have already reached that tipping point, once these polls become widely reported.

Posted by Rand Simberg at 03:23 PM

John Glenn, Statesman

Here is his comment on the Republican convention:

Former senator John Glenn (D-Ohio) took the defense a step further by comparing the Republicans' misleading statements to those of Nazi Germany. "You've just got to separate out fact from fiction. . . . Too often, too often, in this country, if you hear something repeated, it's the old Hitler business -- if you hear something repeated, repeated, repeated, repeated, you start to believe it," he said.

Is any other commentary necessary?

Posted by Rand Simberg at 03:02 PM

ET Found?

Jay Manifold offers his assessment of a potential SETI discovery.

Posted by Rand Simberg at 12:55 PM

Call The Senate Commerce Committee This Week

If you care about the future of commercial human spaceflight. Clark Lindsey explains why.

Posted by Rand Simberg at 12:52 PM

End The Unarmed Victimhood

Some have pointed out that the recent horrific event in Russia was a combination of September 11th and Columbine. Our current (idiotic, in my opinion) policy is to ban all firearms (and even pictures of firearms, or finger guns) from schools. The effect of course, is to put up a sign on the outside of the school saying, "Welcome terrorists and mass murderers: Building full of unarmed victims."

Dave Kopel has a more realistic, and sensible solution.

Posted by Rand Simberg at 11:32 AM

More Thoughts On "John"

The comment from "John," in this post, urging me to read Andrew Sullivan, wasn't just rude--it was clueless.

Even accepting the (dubious) premise that Andrew is a "conservative," why would John think that I would care, or that labeling him such would make me take what he says more seriously? I can only presume that it is because "John" deludes himself that I'm a "conservative," and that therefore I'm intrinsically impressed by what other "conservatives" have to say. I'm not a conservative, but even if I were, I judge peoples words by the words themselves, not by the arbitrary political labels that are (mis?)applied to their authors, whether by themselves or others.

Posted by Rand Simberg at 09:10 AM

Lull

The long delay between posts had nothing to do with conditions; it was the normal one that occurs almost every night as I sleep. We've stokd up on canned goods, water, batteries, fuel, and other necessities. Last night was the time to stok up on slumber, because we may not get another chance at it until late Sunday. Fortunately, the storm didn't disturb us, though I heard a few gale blasts about 7 AM.

It's relatively quiet right now. Trees are blowing, but not hard, and it's not raining much. Based on the forecasts, I don't expect that to last long. Fortunately for us (and unfortunately for many others), it continues to head further north. If it makes landfall near the current prediction (up near Melbourne or Fort Pierce), we'll get off pretty easy in Boca, all things considered, even if it restrengthens this afternoon and evening. Most of the storm surge (our biggest fear) will occur to the north of the storm, and most of the winds we get will be from the north and west.

I don't know how much longer I'll be blogging, but at this point, if I quit, it will be because I no longer can (most likely due to power out--the battery's shot in my laptop), not because I'm voluntarily unconscious.

[Update a couple minutes later]

Whoops. Wrote too soon. The wind is picking up now. And there are a couple crazy people out driving down the street.

Posted by Rand Simberg at 06:53 AM

Another Hurricane Blogger

More in the thick of things, in Melbourne. She's still on the air as of a few minutes ago. Wish her (and everyone here) as much luck as you've apportioned my way.

Posted by Rand Simberg at 06:05 AM

September 03, 2004
The Hurricane Fraud Continues

There's a light drizzle outside now. No wind worthy of the name, just a gentle breeze.

Damn you, plywood manufacturers! Damn you to hell!!

[Update after a little reflection]

Well, to be philosophical about it, it's kind of like washing your car to make it rain, or carrying an umbrella to prevent same. If the storm doesn't hit us, we've done a great service to southern Palm Beach and northern Broward counties by preparing our house for a hurricane and spending the money to move out of it.

But perhaps I speak too soon. The demon, at whatever strength or intention, continues to lurk off shore.

Anyway, for now, for those grateful, the tip jar is to the left.

Posted by Rand Simberg at 08:23 PM

It's A Conspiracy!

It's a beautiful balmy night in Boca Raton. No one would ever suspect that there's a killer storm lurking just a couple hundred miles off shore. In fact, I'm not sure that even I believe it.

I'm starting to think that this is an elaborate joint conspiracy by the Plywood Manufacturers of America, and the Association of Concrete Fasteners. They knew, after years of "the boy who cried wolf syndrome," that after Charley's abrupt right turn, after evacuating Tampa, and sending everyone to Orlando, after which they were hit there instead, that people will disbelieve any track projection, and that they could get everyone on the Sunshine State to purchase window-protection accoutrements by simply pretending that there was a storm out there.

To paraphrase Homer Simpson, here I am, sitting in a motel with my house boarded up, like a sucker.

Posted by Rand Simberg at 07:39 PM

Hurricane Blogging

But who knows for how long? It turns out that the Residence Inn that we're staying at has broadband, but I didn't find out about it until a couple hours ago. Then I discovered that I hadn't packed any ethernet cables with my laptop...

So after a trip back to the house between feeder bands (with an additional delay to cover up one door that we missed earlier), I'm on the air, until the power or bandwidth give out, whichever comes first.

As anyone who's been following the storm knows, the damned thing slowed down to nine MPH today, so landfall is coming later than anticipated. We haven't seen much yet, except a couple feeders, with (fortunately) no tornadoes. It still looks like it's heading somewhat north of us, and the Cape is still in danger.

We're still in the target area, at the extreme southern end, as far as being hit by the eye. If it hits north of us, it will be a blessing (for us) because most of the heavy winds will be off-shore, and there won't be as heavy a surge (flooding of the house was the biggest concern, and one that we could do nothing about, other than wrapping it in whatever they put Han Solo in). But the door that we belatedly shored up was on the west side of the house, so we decided to buttress it a little more.

I'm anticipating an interesting twenty-four hours, with (at a minimum) steady tropical-force winds hitting sometime before morning, increasing to hurricane force throughout tomorrow, with eyefall on the land sometime during the day or evening. Earlier is bad, because that means it will hit farther south (us). Later is better, even though it prolongs the agony of the decibels and groaning structure.

We're in a comfortable hotel room, built fifteen years ago, but if the storm hits here dead on, it will be the biggest one it's ever seen, even though the intensity has dropped off to a Cat 3 (it may increase once it's done scouring the Bahamas, in anticipation of slamming the Treasure Coast--lucky us). We're enjoying a meal (possibly our last nice one for a while) of grilled salmon and Caesar salad and champagne (the place has a kitchen).

We're hoping that the hotel will hold out all right, but the worst case is that we all huddle in an interior bath (four of us, with no windows) for the few worst hours, screaming above the winds howling through the broken windows. Obviously, I hope (but don't pray--I still don't know to whom to do that) that it doesn't come to that.

Oh, and to commenter "John" in the previous thread? I rarely use language like this in my blog, but fuck you. With sandpaper.

Posted by Rand Simberg at 05:17 PM