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« Why Hillary Is Losing | Main | How Bad Is Huckabee? »

So Much For The "Consensus"

"Don't fight, adapt.

Also, is oil production really peaking? Not in Brazil:

Wait a minute. Wasn't oil supposed to be running out? Wasn't all the oil out there already discovered? If this new "Sugar Loaf" field in Brazil pans out, the world oil picture won't be the same.

Brazil will become an even bigger exporter in a decade or so than projected and could put pressure on the club of petrotyrants that now has a monopoly on resources. Best of all, it throws doomsday assumptions about oil "peaking" on its head.

The world produces about 85 million barrels of oil a day, according to the International Energy Agency. Global energy demand is expected to rise 55% from 2005-2030. Peak oil theories abound that new discoveries are not keeping up with oil usage. But it's significant that the new demand also is fostering big new discoveries, largely from the very countries where demand is growing most.

It's gloomy times for gloom mongers.

Posted by Rand Simberg at December 16, 2007 09:54 AM
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This, of course, completely ignores the oil under ANWR that we own, but can't get to because of the bunny huggers. The world wide price of oil would plummet if we stopped depending on OPEC and had our own supply.

But I thank God that the bunnies and caribou are safe.

Posted by Steve at December 16, 2007 01:52 PM

Wait a minute. Wasn't oil supposed to be running out? Wasn't all the oil out there already discovered?

The argument was that discovery and exploitation of new petroleum would not, globally, make up for the decline in production at existing oil fields. Oil doesn't (soon) 'run out', but the difficulty of increasing the production rate makes the equilibrium market price very high. At some point, perhaps very soon, this high price makes non-petroleum sources more economical in most applications.

Discoveries such as Brazil's are still consistent with this view.

Perhaps the author should further consider biomass sources. We'll never run out of strawmen.

Posted by Paul F. Dietz at December 16, 2007 02:19 PM


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