Tim Oren has some worrisome thoughts.

And, unrelated, but from the same site, Joe Katzman says to short Google. They're not tending to their knitting.

We've gone from NBC (Nuclear Biological Chemical) to RNA (Robotics Nanotechnology Artificial intelligence) as WMD. And that's sooner than most people who were even aware of it before predicted.

The thing about bioweapons is that they are far more dangerous to an unprepared society. I think what we're particularly missing is early warning systems for detecting new diseases (especially dangerous and/or artificial ones) and ways to rapidly contain an epidemic.

I figure the best bet for early warning is to monitor places that have lots of people, and people who make lots of potential transmission contacts. For example, skycaps in airports, elementary school teachers, staff at big public events like sports games, etc. Finally, monitor means to infect lots of people like air conditioning systems at big public places, water supplies, etc. Obviously, the technology to monitor said places and people in real time do not yet exist. You also need a means to determine if a detected microbe or virus is harmful or not, quickly.

Second, you need containment. For example, I think it's agreed that the flu cannot be contained with our current policies or technology. There's no cure after the fact except just letting it run its course (some antivirals might weaken it) and a flu vaccine takes months to prepare. Nor are there good plans for quarantine once the flu spreads beyond a few people. I repeatedly mention quarantine because that's still the most effective way to stop the spread of disease.

There's no reason a much more advanced civilization couldn't come up with effective defenses even for the flu. It can only spread so fast. At some point, you can both detect it and figure out who to quarantine (perhaps even release a cure in real time) quickly enough to stop even a flu (which is probably the fastest spreading natural disease out there these days). Then it becomes an arms race between the disease makers and the biologicals defense system.

We've gone from NBC (Nuclear Biological Chemical) to RNA (Robotics Nanotechnology Artificial intelligence) as WMD. And that's sooner than most people who were even aware of it before predicted.

No, we haven't. As I see it, nuclear is still the big mass destruction weapon on the block. If our defenses against bioweapons remain weak, then bioweapons will take over at some point. Robotics isn't a weapon in itself. Nanotech hasn't progressed to the point where it can be considered a weapon. And AI doesn't exist at the moment.

Bio-weapons have a lethal blowback potential. That potential grows if the weapon is very successful. AIDS is a good example of what happens when a pathogen enters a population that is constantly on the move. The original victims of the disease spread it to countries where standard health levels were much lower than in the US. In these countries it began to spread in much different ways that even the health care experts could imagine. Largely because of the lower health standard and poor economic conditions it became epidemic there while still only a nuisance here in the US.

Nuclear is the fastest and potential for hitting a large amount of people with a shorter and smaller effect. Biological is different in that instead of exposing all those people to lethal radiation, you expose them so that they carry a pathogen, and you'll really maximize your kill. As JJS states, the problems are that it will spread in various and sundry unknown ways.

I was trying to make the point that by the time we reach the point the article was talking about, it truly won't be Biological, it will be Nanotechnology. RNA isn't a threat -- yet.