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« Looking For God | Main | Cancer On The Universe, Take II »

Keep An Eye Out

Someone let me know when they see the first instance (and it's when, not if--I can almost guarantee that there will be one) of a Global Warmmonger making the claim that this year's mild hurricane season is evidence of climate change. I'm fearless in my prediction, because I haven't yet seen any meteorological phenomenon for which this hasn't occurred.

[Update at 1 PM EDT]

Speaking of hurricanes (or hurricane shortages), here's an article that says that "scientists" (I use the scare quotes, because I think they're really planetary engineers--many people confuse science and engineering, most notably in "rocket science") are getting closer to being able to steer hurricanes. But this is an interesting dilemma:

...the hurricane modifiers are fighting more than the weather. Lawyers warn that diverting a hurricane from one city to save life and property could result in multi-billion dollar lawsuits from towns that bear the brunt instead. Hurricane Katrina caused about $41 billion in damage to New Orleans.

At first glance, this might be a problem for people who want to divert asteroids. It would be ironic if we went the way of the dinosaurs over fear of lawyers...

But the situations aren't quite the same. The earth is big, but it's not that big, and the Caribbean and Gulf are pretty small places when it comes to herding hurricanes. They have to go somewhere, and almost anywhere you send one is likely to encounter someone with the phone number of an ambulance chaser.

But (as Douglas Adams once noted) space is big. As long as you ensure that the rock (or dirty snowball) misses the planet entirely (which shouldn't be that hard if you catch it early enough), there should be no fear of a day in court.

[Mid-afternoon update]

Is climate too complex to make accurate predictions? Color me shocked.

"This finding reinforces not only that climate policies will necessarily be made in the face of deep, irreducible uncertainties," says Roger Pielke, a climate policy expert at the University of Colorado at Boulder, US. "But also the uncomfortable reality – for climate modellers – that finite research dollars invested in ever more sophisticated climate models offer very little marginal benefit to decision makers."

But hey, if it makes us tighten up our hair shirts, it's all worthwhile.

And note, asteroid trajectory prediction, even with all the perturbations, is much more amenable to modeling.

Posted by Rand Simberg at October 30, 2007 09:14 AM
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Comments

We can thank daddy Gore for this wonderful news. It is only through his tireless efforts and huge investment in carbon offsets that we have been able to avert hurricane disaster. I want to nominate daddy Gore for the position of Saint and World Emperor!

Posted by George Tyson at October 30, 2007 10:11 AM

Saint, World Emporer; how about Pope too?
Throw in Secretary Genereal for the UN too and catch everything in one fell swoop!

Posted by Andy Clark at October 30, 2007 04:22 PM

If one throws it all in one has to add Antichrist too. It's mandatory ^_^

Posted by Habitat Hermit at October 31, 2007 03:21 PM


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