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Scientific Cascades I've been skeptical about the link between dietary fat, and weight and poor health for a long time (at least since I first read Barry Sears' analyses, over a decade ago). John Tierney (who has fortunately escaped from behind the Times Select prison) writes that the "science" behind the linkage is bogus, and that our fat aversion is probably one of the leading causes of obesity, since we switched to carbohydrates, which are much worse for us. But the reason that the bogus theory was promoted and accepted for so long is an interesting story of scientific sociology: It may seem bizarre that a surgeon general could go so wrong. After all, wasn’t it his job to express the scientific consensus? But that was the problem. Dr. Koop was expressing the consensus. He, like the architects of the federal “food pyramid” telling Americans what to eat, went wrong by listening to everyone else. He was caught in what social scientists call a cascade. Hmmmmm.....does it sound like another current scientific "consensus"? Of course, it doesn't mean that all theories have this problem. But it does mean that we are entitled to a little skepticism when we are told that there is a scientific consensus. Particularly when we are bullied into believing it, and treated like heretics in our skepticism, and there are some other potential agendas at play. Of course, the good news for me (though it was too late for my parents) is that even if we don't know what is the best diet to prevent coronary disease, we are coming up with other, better solutions: From a snippet of a patient’s skin, researchers have grown blood vessels in a laboratory and then implanted them to restore blood flow around the patient’s damaged arteries and veins. As Instantman (from whom I got both these articles) says, bring it on. [Wednesday morning update] Jonathan Gewirtz has further thoughts. Posted by Rand Simberg at October 09, 2007 08:07 AMTrackBack URL for this entry:
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Meanwhile, there still wasn’t good evidence to warrant recommending a low-fat diet for all Americans, as the National Academy of Sciences noted in a report shortly after the U.S.D.A. guidelines were issued. But the report’s authors were promptly excoriated on Capitol Hill and in the news media for denying a danger that had already been proclaimed by the American Heart Association, the McGovern committee and the U.S.D.A. What burns me up is that we'll see similar articles about AGW in ten or twenty years time with no apologies or recriminations. Maybe some dead pols and scientists will have their reputations tarnished but the media which plays such a big role in the whole 'informational cascade' will still be patting themselves on the back for the 'outstanding' work they do. Maybe the best way to look at it is that, to first order, belief in any idea is the product of a cascade. Take the idea that "Paris Hilton is a celebrity whose every action deserves national coverage." This is pretty obviously the product of an out-of-control cascade. Second-order influences involve things like "Is she hot?" (Any idea involving a woman has "Is she hot?" as at least a second-order influence.) Science, properly so-called, has "Does it fit the data?" as the second-order influence. In cases like low-fat diets or AGW, that gets displaced from second-order by other questions, like "Does it promote my political agenda?" This would explain an observation of mine, that we make tremendous progress on scientific questions that no one cares about. We know the gyromagnetic ratio of the electron to 11 significant figures. I don't suppose anyone gets emotional about any of those digits beyond the first four or so. But progress seems to be glacial on questions that people really care about, like weight loss or control of the economy. Precisely the cases where "Does it fit the data?" gets shoved out of second-order. I eat meat, lots of it. I try to shoot for 200 grams of protein a day. Eggs, chicken, tuna, beef, and whey. It takes a lot of fuel to feed this impressive specimen of human biology. *eats a mouthful of beef jerky** mmmmmmmmMMMM! Posted by Josh Reiter at October 9, 2007 09:37 PMI posted on this topic here. The difference between global warming and the low-fat diet mania is the existence of quantitative, physics-based reasons for the former. Biological theories, on the other hand, are much less grounded in solid a priori information. > The difference between global warming and the low-fat diet mania is the existence of quantitative, physics-based reasons for the former. Not so fast. The physics of heat retention atomospheric CO2 do NOT tell us what, if anything, we should do. Dr. Melik: This morning for breakfast he requested something called "wheat germ, organic honey and tiger's milk." From "Sleeper". Woody Allen is a genius. :D Posted by Jim C. at October 10, 2007 08:39 PMNot so fast. The physics of heat retention atomospheric CO2 do NOT tell us what, if anything, we should do. Of course. But your are in effect changing the subject from 'scientific cascades' to 'policy cascades'. Post a comment |