What happened to Al Qaeda's Ramadan offensive?

Most people (and all Democrats) fail to appreciate the fact that al Qaeda was directly responsible for the enormous rise in civilian casualties that occurred in 2006 and that continued until recently. As such, they do not really have a way to conceptualize the enormous drop in casualties that occurred last month and that has been maintained through the first week of this month. Once you understand the role played by al Qaeda, then, if al Qaeda really has been quashed (big "if"), I do not see how civilian casualties will ever again climb to their previous levels. The two main sources of civilian casualties in Iraq -- deaths from al Qaeda's suicide bombers and retaliatory execution-style killings by Shiite militias in Baghdad -- are both under control. If al Qaeda can no longer deliberately enrage the Shiite militias by slaughtering hundreds of innocent Shiite civilians at a time, then where are the extra 1000 deaths going to come from this month?

An interesting question. But it does look like Al Qaeda's attempt at a Tet of their own failed, despite the Dems' fervent desire for a repeat.

[Update in the evening]

More thoughts from Omar Fadhil, in Iraq.

I have a feeling that al-Qaeda is on an extreme down-slope in Iraq. What will the democrats do if we win in Iraq, stabilize the region and severely curtail terrorism for the foreseeable future? That real possibility is their worst nightmare.

They truly are pathetic.

Iran is right there to carry out all the necessary killing to maintain the expected response from the gullible western MSM. I reckon they are quite capable of getting their act together and stepping into the vacuum left by the defeat of al-Kaida. It might take them a few months to marshall the necessary resources, route their Ho Shi Ming trail, and get the show on the road.

Once Iraq gets their act together and accepts the fact that Iran is f'ing with them once again, God help them. The Iraq's can be ruthless. I can envision a good part of Iraq more or less uniting for the purpose of defeating Iranian meddling and sabotage in their country.

More thoughts from Omar Fadhil, in Iraq.

Except that Omar Fadhil isn't in Iraq. He left for a two-year program at Columbia University.

http://iraqthemodel.com/2007/09/whereabouts.html

Like most Iraq bloggers, Omar is Sunni. (Despite Al Qaeda and Saddam Hussein, the Sunnis were the educated class in Baghdad.) Like almost all of them, he has left Iraq, or turned against the occupation, or just stopped posting, or some combination of these. Most of the Iraqi bloggers who left openly cite ethnic cleansing as a reason to go. Omar has not much discussed that personal concern, but the truth is that his keystrokes say one thing while his feet say another. I'm sure that he's trying to get his brother Mohammed out too; his other brother Ali is also in the United States. Humoring the right blogosphere is a small price to pay for getting your family to safety, if you can make that strategy work.

Baghdad is well on its way to becoming a fearsome Islamic theocracy with few college graduates and far fewer bloggers. Al Qaeda will be licked all right, but only because no Sunnis will be left.

Baghdad is well on its way to becoming a fearsome Islamic theocracy with few college graduates and far fewer bloggers.

Based on what? More importantly, compared to what?

Please, who are all the great Iranian bloggers? Syrian bloggers? Hey, even Saudi Arabian bloggers?

You claim this:
"Omar has not much discussed that personal concern, but the truth is that his keystrokes say one thing while his feet say another. I'm sure that he's trying to get his brother Mohammed out too; his other brother Ali is also in the United States."

But Omar did discuss this when he came over, so that's a lie on your part. Exaggerating that lie into a blanket statement of all of Iraq won't make the original lie true.

Based on what?

Based on what is happening to Iraqi bloggers. You don't even have to examine the anti-occupation bloggers to see the pattern; just take the former darlings of the right blogosphere. Healing Iraq? He left Baghdad for America and turned pessimistic about the war. His brother left Baghdad for Jordan. Salam Pax? He turned sour years ago. Iraq the Model? These guys cater to the right the most of all, but even so, two of the three are in America. Go down the blog rolls of these people and see for yourself how many are out of the country.

More importantly, compared to what?

Compared to what Iraq could have been and used to be. Sure, before the invasion these educated Sunnis couldn't blog --- although that was partly because of economic sanctions --- but they did have a future in Iraq.

Please, who are all the great Iranian bloggers?

There are tons of them. You just didn't do the first thing to find them. Go to http://blogsbyiranians.com/ for example. And that's just some English-language Iranian blogs; there are many more in Persian. There are 18 million Internet users in Iran according to the CIA factbook. And Iran has always had much more higher education than Iraq.

Hey, even Saudi Arabian bloggers?

There certainly are some; according to the CIA factbook, there are 4.7 million Saudi Internet users. See http://saudiblogs.blog spot.com/

Syrian bloggers?

There are a few; see http://www.damasceneblog.com/ . There are Iraqi blogs too; the difference is that so many of the Iraqi bloggers are leaving the country. Mohammed Fadhil might be the very last one who is both for the occupation and still in Iraq.

But Omar did discuss this when he came over, so that's a lie on your part.

I said that he has not much discussed it. In particular, he forgot to change his byline in the WSJ blog.