Will it be a gentle hurricane season? Well, I obviously hope so. We're almost a month into it, with just two minor storms, and it does look like things are going to stay calm for another month. But the peak of the season is still a couple months off, so I don't think it's safe to draw any conclusions yet.

Of course, I fearlessly predict that regardless of how many hurricanes there are--more, fewer, or the normal amount--some will attribute it to SUVs, and claim that it's evidence for climate change.

And don't forget that regardless of the level of activity this year, the forecast for next year will be sufficient justification to raise our insurance rates.

Oh, don't blame the lack of hurricanes on SUVs, it's all Bush's fault.

Actually, I predict that we'll see a news report from some prominent "climatologist" (Heidi Cullen perhaps?) that will say that the lost hurricanes are damaging to the oceanic ecosystem, and causing the Gulf Stream to weaken, and driving all of the "strange" weather in Britain.

Therefore, we need MORE hurricanes, and studies are underway to see what can be done to increase hurricane rates.

Legislative support will be demonstrated by an amendment to the immigration bill.

I'm waiting for Global Warming to be the cause of less hurricanes as well as the cause of more hurricanes.

I'm wondering how much of the drought in the SE is due to the lack of hurricanes last year. IIRC, a few years ago our local weatherman (I live in Va) said that ~30% of local rainfall was from spent tropical storms/hurricanes. If it was that much for us, it must be a great deal more for people farther south. Just food for thought.

I'm wondering how much of the drought in the SE is due to the lack of hurricanes last year. IIRC, a few years ago our local weatherman (I live in Va) said that ~30% of local rainfall was from spent tropical storms/hurricanes. If it was that much for us, it must be a great deal more for people farther south. Just food for thought.

Some of the worst flooding I have seen came from training thunderstorms (13" in 8 hours). As I understand it, a high that usually moves east in the summer, has not. This is keeping my part of east central Texas and OK full of daily thunderstorms and keeping the rain from moving east. There are lakes around Dallas that rose 17' in 30 days.
I would love to send this rain east for now because if a tropical system moves into the western gulf, there is no place for the water to go.

Isn't El Nino running this year? Texas gets most of its rain during El Nino years, while the coasts generally face droughts.

Yes, I certainly do hope for a quiet year as well.

But when the first storm hits before it's officially the season starts, that worries me.

And my house has already been hit by a tree when a gum tree got hit with lightning and swung half of it between my garage roof and my fence. No damage, thankfully, and the neighbor did cut the rest of the tree down. Hopefully that's not a premonition.

And no, I blame all the blowhards on both sides of the position for all the hot air that's going around.

But when the first storm hits before it's officially the season starts, that worries me.

I believe that Andrea (subtropical) would not have been a named storm before 2002.

Here's one explanation of how the naming convention has changed over time: Yahoo answers.

Crystal clear?

Nobody in the global warming crowd claims that it's going to get warmer everywhere - but they all agree that the weather is going to get more violent.

In fact, generalised global warming might lead to localised (on a global scale) cooling such as the prospect in Northern Europe of a 10-15 degree drop caused by the Gulf Stream swinging way south.

I refuse to believe that the weather isn't changing - especially with tornadoes in Norfolk, England and great swathes of my country under water at the moment. Four inches of rain in two hours is NOT normal anywhere in the UK. But it's happened this week, in several places.

Maybe this news hasn't come to America - Paris Hilton's escapades are obviously much more important.

I refuse to believe that the weather isn't changing

We refuse to believe it too, but that's not the point. Weather changes because its a dynamic chaotic system. It does not change on a global scale because of man's actions on the planet. That is a political ploy for power, nothing more.

Last year, here in south central Texas, we had no real winter to speak of, plus a dry spring. Very unnatural. This past year, we had a freeze that lasted two days and we've been inundated with rain over the last few months. Also not the usual, but its the weather and it always changes.

"We refuse to believe it too, but that's not the point. Weather changes because its a dynamic chaotic system. It does not change on a global scale because of man's actions on the planet."

Yet.

Nobody knows where the tipping point is - but it is absolutely certain there is one. If the season is right, look into the sky just before dawn or after sunset, low on the horizon, to see an example of what happens when the greenhouse effect gets out of control.

And there are quite a lot of positive feedback mechanisms in the climate machine, too.

Nobody knows where the tipping point is. We may just find out the hard way. I'd rather not.

Fletcher,

I'm "absolutely certain" you're making assumptions about human impacts that are "absolutely" not known.

You've obviously been brainwashed by the "consensus". I for one welcome global warming. Since I can't afford to move to a warmer climate zone, it can come to me.

Don't knock global warming if you haven't tried it.

Answer this question: On average, which direction do people move across the global thermal gradient when they go on holiday?

but they all agree that the weather is going to get more violent.

I'm not sure they all agree to that, either. They may agree it may cause the weather to become more violent, for some not entirely confident value of 'may'.

If the season is right, look into the sky just before dawn or after sunset, low on the horizon, to see an example of what happens when the greenhouse effect gets out of control.

Okay then....let's rewind a bit...

Nobody knows where the tipping point is

WHat makes you think that anything seen on the horizon after sunset is any different from what they saw 500 years ago? Your second statement is correct, your first is the same scare tactic used by the AGW crowd.

http://www.gmu.edu/departments/economics/wew/articles/07/fearmongering.html

Read this and pay close attention to what the Weather Channel does in the fourth paragraph. Yes Fletcher, we do have an effect on our environment, but don't let the power hungry fearmongers get control of your critical thinking.

Mac, perhaps I wasn't being clear enough. Low on the horizon before dawn or after sunset, if the "stars" are right, you can see a horrible example of out-of-control greenhouse. A place misnamed.

Venus.

Ah, gotcha, okay, nevermind then (grin)

I talked with a meteorologist today that says there's a High pressure system out in the Atlantic that is out of its usual place, so the East Coast rains that normally hit this time of year, are hitting Texas and up to the Ohio valley. The High pressure is also helping to lessen tropical depressions from forming....at least off of Africa.

Hurricane scientists reported in the April 18 Geophysical Research Letters that global warming enhances wind shear, which will prevent a significant increase in future hurricane activity.

There it is! I read this on 7/2/07 and ticked my accurate prediction meter that Global Warming now REDUCES hurricanes as well as INCREASE them.

Full article here.

http://www.suntimes.com/news/otherviews/450392,CST-EDT-REF30b.article