Elon Musk says that the window opens on Saturday.

I'm guessing that this flight is one of their milestones for COTS.

Meanwhile, speaking of COTS, Jeffrey Bell wonders what's really behind it.

He confuses VSE and ESAS (as many do). The Space Frontier Foundation is not opposed to VSE--it is opposed to ESAS.

I think that the answer to his question is much simpler than any of his speculations, and I don't buy his theory of "COTS as management slush fund for Constellation." COTS is funded because the White House wants COTS to be funded. What their motivation is, I don't know, but this is not a NASA-driven program, for any reason of the reasons he states. And that's bad news, since it may not have any defenders in a new administration. They're going to have to make a lot of progress in the next two years to ensure program survival. And even then, it could be cancelled. We've certainly done dumber things.

If the next administration does not delay the Shuttle retirement, will COTS need defenders?

As long as 1. NASA wants to access to the International Space Station and 2. Russia and ESA want compensation for Soyuz or ATV flights, then shouldn't the COTS contenders have a market to serve?

I guess NASA could just turn off the lights inside their ISS modules until Orion flies.

If SpaceX has a successful flight of Falcon I this weekend, do you suppose Jeffrey Bell will retract any of his smug snark? Naaaah!