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People who were saying that Somalia had been lost to Al Qaeda a few months ago were premature. It looks like we've built a trap for them, and they've been caught.

Posted by Rand Simberg at January 08, 2007 07:12 PM
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I haven't been keeping up. Why are the Islamic groups that were gaining control in Somalia being considered part of Al Qaeda? Seems like a big project for them.

Posted by Karl Hallowell at January 8, 2007 08:02 PM

How do you define "Al Qaeda," Karl? Do you think they have membership cards? By their deeds shall ye know them.

Posted by Rand Simberg at January 8, 2007 08:08 PM

Somalia will be "lost" until an effective government can bring security and set the nation on a path towards economic development. If the UN-backed Transitional Government proves as inept now as previous Somali governments have over the last 15 years, then al-Qaeda will be dusting off their Somali training camps again in summer 2007.

Similarly, it was a great to see the IDF blast the heck out of Hezbollah in July 2006. Yet as soon as the guns fell silent and the Merkavas rolled home, Hezbollah crawled out of its cave, organized and strengthened its hold on southern Lebanon.

To the point, if America and her allies cannot win the peace in the lands of Islamic jihad then there will be no end to this cycle of warfare.

I like to see AC-130 Spectres shredding al-Qaeda operatives as much as the next guy. But we need to clear, hold and transform failed states until the last terrorist breeding ground is vanquished.

Posted by John Kavanagh at January 8, 2007 09:29 PM

The only way to win the peace is the way that Ghengis Khan won the peace in the middle east 800 years ago.

We need ways around the problem or else take the path of the Khans.

Posted by Dennis Ray Wingo at January 8, 2007 10:42 PM

The Ethiopian airforce (both planes) bombing the shit out of them probably helped.

Posted by Adrasteia at January 9, 2007 04:20 AM

To the point, if America and her allies cannot win the peace...

Will someone please tell me what the hell this means? Who started using the idiot phrase? Why would anyone thinks we ever try to win peace? We never set out to win peace, we set out to stop Al Queda and a terrorist supporting regime, led by a murdering thug.

Let me say, our task isn't to win peace, our task is to deliver failure. Our task is to make the enemies lives so short and miserable that no new fighters are wiling to join their side. You don't win peace, you demand it by force of arms. No one has ever talked themselves into peaceful co-existence with an enemy, once they have been attacked. Especially after they have been repeatedly attacked.

If I'm wrong about those last 2 lines, tell me how, when and where it happened.

Posted by Steve at January 9, 2007 05:56 AM

Why would anyone thinks we ever try to win peace?

Winning the peace means not fighting the same conflict over and over. Quitting after a full-scale conflict doesn’t resolve the root causes.

our task is to deliver failure.

That's shortsighted and counterproductive. Transforming failed states and rogue regimes dries up support for Islamic terrorist networks. Failed states like Somalia and late 20th century Afghanistan are the perfect jihadist nurseries.

The Post WWI Treaty of Versailles delivered failure to the German people and in the process laid fertile ground for the Nazi party. American leaders Post WWII developed the Marshall Plan to nurture allies out of the rubble instead of leaving them to rot and fall to Communists.

A similar comprehenisve strategy is needed to win the Long War.

Posted by John Kavanagh at January 9, 2007 08:11 AM


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