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« Strange Job Description | Main | Nuts »

Isn't It Obvious?

You shouldn't need a think tank to figure this out, even though many foolish diplomats, at Foggy Bottom and in Europe, don't get it.

"There is no longer a possibility for effective sanctions to stop Iran," retired Brig.-Gen. Zvi Shtauber, of Tel Aviv University's Institute for National Security Studies, told The Jerusalem Post.

"Our conclusion is that without military action you won't be able to stop Iran," Shtauber said.

We have a very grim choice before us, and the administration doesn't seem to be doing anything to prepare the American people for it. We will have a war with Iran, or we will have a nuclear-armed Iran (with a nuclear arms race in the rest of the Middle East). That's it.

Posted by Rand Simberg at December 22, 2006 09:15 AM
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We'll do what we usually do - wait until the crisis is actually upon us, then resolve it, with far more cost in lives, money, and damage, both to them and us, than would have been needed had we acted in time. See 9/11, North Korean Invasion of 1950, Pearl Harbor, Lusitania, U.S.S. Maine, Fort Sumter, etc, for details...

Posted by tschafer at December 22, 2006 11:06 AM

The nation most threatened by Iran's acquisition of Nuclear weapons being Israel, let Israel do the job if it is so persuaded. Given the acknowledged vast military supremacy of the Israelis, they don't need anything other than a look of ignorance on our part.

We are having too hard a time making nice with the Shiites in Iraq to make nasty with their brothers in Iran.

Posted by Offside at December 22, 2006 01:47 PM

Here's the problem(s):

1. Iran's program is supposed to rather large and spread out. It probably couldn't be done outside of a sustained campaign of several strikes, then recon, then more strikes.

2. Jordan and Iraq may not take too kindly towards repeated incursions by Israeli strike packages through their airspace. Looking at the map, I don't know how else you get from Tel Aviv to Tehran. Might be making too much of that but I don't think so...

Posted by Pat C at December 22, 2006 02:02 PM

Airspace problems getting to Iran from Israel certainly exist. Israel of course is known for thinking outside the box when it comes to military ops. Why assume an attack by aircraft?

Other options:
* Ballistic missiles from Israel, surface ships or submarines.
* Recon and/or attack from UAVs launched from surface ships or clandestinely from Armenia, etc.
* Target Iranian nuclear engineers for assasination.
* Target the air intake systems with NBC agents.

Even given these other options I doubt that the damage done to nuclear program (likely somewhat limited) would be worth the negative reprocussions (potentially quite large).

Posted by Fred K at December 22, 2006 03:16 PM

Let Israel fight their own wars,
Let Israel make their own peace.

Posted by anonymous at December 22, 2006 04:40 PM

Last time I checked, the country that Iran's leaders call "The Great Satan" wasn't Israel. Anyone who thinks that a nuclear Iran will only threaten Israel is dreaming. The Sunnis in surrounding countries are certainly worried, and last tim I checked, they wern't Jewish.

By the way, the Saudis are said to be very worried about Iran, and were actually tacitly rooting for Israel during the war with Hezbollah. Maybe the Israelis will find Saudi airspace strangely hospitable, with perhaps some fuel lying around, too...

Posted by tschafer at December 22, 2006 06:13 PM

By the way, the Saudis are said to be very worried about Iran, and were actually tacitly rooting for Israel during the war with Hezbollah. Maybe the Israelis will find Saudi airspace strangely hospitable, with perhaps some fuel lying around, too...

There are rumors that the Saudis and a number of Gulf shiekdoms might be willing to endorse a comprehensive two-state peace deal between Israel and the Palestinians and grant diplomatic recognition to Israel as part of the package.

If that included massive Saudi financial assistance to the West Bank and the deployment of Arab troops to smash Hamas opposition to the plan, it might actually work.

= = =

To be followed by an all-out Shia vs Sunni civil war as Tehran accuses Saudi Arabia of being traitor to Islam. But then we'd have the Gulf States on our side in that war.

Posted by Bill White at December 22, 2006 06:33 PM

We have a very grim choice before us, and the administration doesn't seem to be doing anything to prepare the American people for it.

One possibility is to send a larger naval contingent to the Gulf and hope the Iranians attack. Then, pass a Gulf of Tonkin resolution and attack vigorously.

One open question is whether the Iranians have been sold large numbers of Sunburn anti-ship missiles.

Posted by Bill White at December 22, 2006 06:42 PM

One possibility is to send a larger naval contingent to the Gulf and hope the Iranians attack. Then, pass a Gulf of Tonkin resolution and attack vigorously

--------

Attack with what?

Posted by anonymous at December 22, 2006 11:46 PM

Yeah, let's strike up another "Gulf of Tonkin" incident with Iran since our military has all the man power it needs to properly occupy Iran for twenty years after we blow it off the map. Geeze, I guess people will never learn. The USA is nothing but a blood thirsty warmonger now out to impose its version of "democracy" and culture on the rest of the world. gods help us.

Posted by X at December 23, 2006 03:10 AM

"1. Iran's program is supposed to rather large and spread out. It probably couldn't be done outside of a sustained campaign of several strikes, then recon, then more strikes.

2. Jordan and Iraq may not take too kindly towards repeated incursions by Israeli strike packages through their airspace. Looking at the map, I don't know how else you get from Tel Aviv to Tehran. Might be making too much of that but I don't think so..."

Wrong, and wrong.

Answer to 1. above; single warhead on Tehran, groundburst 300KT. Game over. (There are hundreds of these available.)

2. above then becomes irrelevant.

There isn't a program, if the government that set it up doesn't exist.

Of course, nobody is going to have the guts to grasp this particular nettle.

Posted by Fletcher Christian at December 23, 2006 05:59 AM

fletcher.

who should nuke tehran? Israel or america?

Posted by anonymous at December 23, 2006 07:38 AM

who should nuke tehran?

"Let's get North Korea! They'll nuke anything!"

Posted by McGehee at December 23, 2006 08:52 AM

"who should nuke tehran? Israel or america"

You were advocating Israel do it a few post ago Mr. Anonymous Jew Hater. Did you change your mind?

Posted by Mike Puckett at December 23, 2006 10:19 AM

"Yeah, let's strike up another "Gulf of Tonkin" incident with Iran since our military has all the man power it needs to properly occupy Iran for twenty years after we blow it off the map."

X, why do you think that the totalitarian-bureaucratic model of occupation is the only one ever conceived? Lack of historical awareness, or an attempt to make the U.S. seem as evil as the XSSR was?

Posted by John "Akatsukami" Braue at December 23, 2006 12:08 PM

Puckett

I don't think either country should nuke tehran, but,
if the neo-cons want nuclear war, let Israel fight it.

and just because i find Simberg hateful and the Neo-cons
criminal and Israel's policies stupid and unproductive
doesn't mean I hate jews.

Playing the race card is no more productive for you
then it is the blacks.

Posted by anonymous at December 24, 2006 10:01 AM

"and just because i find Simberg hateful and the Neo-cons
criminal and Israel's policies stupid"

Projection 101 again I see.

"Playing the race card is no more productive for you
then it is the blacks."

But screeching 'chickenhawk' like some addled, brain damaged idiot does?

Posted by at December 28, 2006 12:46 PM


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