I haven't had the time to read through this whole thing (we're moving foliage into the house and decorating it, to the annual consternation of the cat), but I think it's worth a read. The Singularity continues to approach, and by definition, we are not prepared.

Oh, great! Another article about the Singularity! I can't wait to reaZZZZZZZZZZZZZZZZZZZZZZZZZZZZZZZZZZZZZZ

NO CARRIER

I skimmed it. It seemed like there was an awful lot of "this could happen" and "somehow could combine," etc.

I'll take the skeptical side of the singularity. My futurist prediction is that we will continue to make significant progress in chemistry, medicine, and molecular engineering, and that we will significantly extend the average life span of a human. I don't think we'll all download into computers, be supplanted by machines much more intelligent than us, or alter our nature so far with technology that we aren't recognizable as humans. I'll predict this will be the case for at least the next 100 years.

To amplify: I think each individual problem we run into will be harder and take longer to solve than the sigularity-in-the-next-50-years predictions account for. It will be harder to build microscopic machines. It will be harder to manufacture them, and we won't get an "assembler." Instead, we'll have complex factory systems to produce the microscopic biomachines, which will not be capable of replicating on their own. We'll use them to do such things as cure cancer, diabetes, MS, and some effects of aging. There will be strange mistakes and happenings that kill people. The machine intelligence we develop will not be of the I'm-self-aware-and-I-want-you dead variety, and the problems of intelligence and self awareness will turn out to be more thorny than sigularity predictions fortell.

Jeff:

Replicating assemblers are possible. You want proof? Look in the mirror.

Ditto intelligence.