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Serious Negotiations
After we try some things like this, we may be able to get Iran to come to heel. Then negotiations might have a useful outcome:
To be sure, preemptive military force would be a highly undesirable option—but it would be less undesirable than the alternative, which could be both nuclear weapons in the hands of ideological hard-liners bent on confrontation and a nuclear arms race across the Middle East.
That said, it would be premature to write off the prospects for a diplomatic resolution of the crisis. If the United States and its allies can effectively demonstrate that Iran is paying a high price for its confrontational stance, the cautious instincts of Khamene'i and many Iranian leaders could lead them to freeze the overt conversion and enrichment programs, regardless of Ahmadinejad's attitude. While Iran would almost certainly continue with covert activities, the need to keep those hidden would slow development. In this case, delay could be victory, because the long-term prospects for the Islamic Republic look poor: it has done a miserable job of winning the hearts and minds of young Iranians and, meanwhile, social and regional developments suggest more pressure for democratic governance.
We have to make time our ally, instead of theirs, because now, they think they can wait it out, and the Baker nonsense just encourages them in that belief. Move down the field, and don't give them any time outs.
Posted by Rand Simberg at December 07, 2006 11:21 AM
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