I agree with Jonah:

While I don't subscribe to so-called ass-brained theories that Bin Laden never existed, I am coming around to the view that he's dead as Michael Ledeen has suggested. I mean why wouldn't Bin Laden issue a video for the five year anniversary of 9/11?

Just from a medical standpoint I find it unlikely that he is alive. More than five years ago it was reported he was receiving dialysis treatments. If you look at mortality rates for people receiving dialysis for that period of time the statistics are grin even for people in ideal conditions. It is my hope he has been living in less than comfortable quarters. jjs

I've thought he was dead since the siege of Tora Bora in December 2001. As far as I know, since that battle:

* no one has reported seeing him -- no outsiders, no westerners, no reporters, no captured al-Qaeda or Taliban.
* there have been no good-quality audio tapes of him, just low quality tapes that sound like something off a 1960s cassette recorder (and are therefore too low-quality for a definite voiceprint match).
* there have been no definitely post-Tora Bora videotapes of him, of any quality.

Do you believe that he wouldn't even allow a friendly Pakistani or al-Jazeera reporter to visit and interview him? That he couldn't get hold of a modern digital voice-recorder or camcorder and record a high quality video or audio message to his followers?

I don't believe that. I think he died in Tora Bora and his followers have bee attempting an elaborate series of hoaxes using voice imitators to cover up his death.

The anniversary of the glorious victories of 22 Jumada al-Thani was weeks ago, as any good Muslim could tell you. Why would a devout Muslim like bin Ladin use an infidel Pope's incorrect calendar when Allah has provided the perfect one, anyhow?

Why would a devout Muslim like bin Ladin use an infidel Pope's incorrect calendar when Allah has provided the perfect one, anyhow?

You're being facetious, of course. After all, January 1, 2000 was of no particular significance to the Muslim calendar either, yet they tried to create a statement of sorts for that date.

He released a tape several months ago referring to the death of al Zarqawi. The CIA said it was his voice and the event means the tape was recent. He's released plenty of tapes, and if his voice was being faked, don't you think the CIA would say so?

"Faced with the most sophisticated technology in the world, bin Laden has gone decidedly low-tech. His 23 video or audiotapes in the last five years are thought to have been hand-carried to news outlets or nearby mail drops by a series of couriers who know nothing about the contents of their deliveries or the real identity of the sender, a simple method used by spies and drug traffickers for centuries."

http://www.washingtonpost.com/wp-dyn/content/article/2006/09/09/AR2006090901105_pf.html

It is simple: he is very good at hiding. We are not very good at finding him. And our forces are stretched thin, with a lot of intel capability yanked from Afghanistan to go to Iraq.

But anybody who wants to believe he's dead should get together with the people who think that the World Trade Center was brought down by Mossad and the Pentagon. They think alike.

The CIA said it was his voice and the event means the tape was recent. He's released plenty of tapes, and if his voice was being faked, don't you think the CIA would say so?

Yes, of course. The CIA never gets anything wrong...

But anybody who wants to believe he's dead should get together with the people who think that the World Trade Center was brought down by Mossad and the Pentagon. They think alike.

Ummmm...no.

I am conflicted on the body temperature of Bin Laden. On the one hand I find it utterly incomprehensible that he has not released a video taunting the US, a tape of such quality and content that would leave no doubt that he was still breathing.

On the other hand it also seems hard to believe, but to a lesser degree, that what videos and audiotapes that have been released could be fakes without our discerning them to be so.

Either way I don’t think Bin Ladens being alive or dead matters much with respect to the future conduct of the war from either our or AQ’s perspective as I don’t think he continues to have (if he is alive) much input on future AQ plans.

Either way I don’t think Bin Ladens being alive or dead matters much with respect to the future conduct of the war from either our or AQ’s perspective as I don’t think he continues to have (if he is alive) much input on future AQ plans.

I agree with this. I don't accept that Bin Laden is dead without a bit more evidence. However, I don't think he is relevant.

We may never have evidence (or at least proof) that he's dead. If he is buried under rubble in Tora Bora, how will we ever know?

It's a lot easier to prove that someone is alive than that they are dead. To me, the lack of concrete evidence that he's alive (and no, I don't consider audio tapes of dubious quality proof) after five years leads me to think that he's likely not.

I'd say it's usually a mistake to assume that the CIA *must surely* have done a competent job before they would have said X. Hence, OBL might be dead. But he also might have any of a dozen other reasons for not issuing a statement for today, so I wouldn't care to make a bet either way.

Assuming competence is just generally a bad idea. I remember when the first reports of "cold fusion" came out, I thought about what the MSM new accounts were saying, and asked myself how *any competent* researcher would run that experiment. It was perfectly obvious after a moment's thought that you would first run it with heavy water, and then run it with normal water: if there's any difference in your observations, the phenomenon must be real and must involve a nuclear reaction. If there's not, there's nothing to announce. And so I became quite excited, because I assumed the researchers had done a competent job and therefore probably had something big. But much later it evolved that they had *not* done their experiment with a normal-water control. This and other experiences have led me to give up on assuming that we can take it for granted that people employed as "experts" have any clue.

There's been a lot of tapes certified as being 'bin Laden', but the list of tapes that mention something topical post Tora Bora is very slim. There's the Zarqawi death, the Zarqawi successor, and one more about a truce in Africa really. Many of the others are so generic they could be sniped from previous speeches or prepared in advance. "We'll offer you all peace if you become dhimmies" isn't a topical message for instance.

If he's alive, he's disfigured in some fashion he doesn't want to expose.

I accept that his body may never be found, but I think either we have already or will capture someone who knows the truth and is credible.

Is it possible that Bin Laden's alive, but for whatever physical and/or psychological reasons, no longer able to present the strong figurehead image they want? (a seriously infirm, or senile/mentally ill boss is bad PR, even for AQ...which would be consistent with the theories that he's breathing, but has no real operational input)

That is, might he now be the Howard Hughes of terrorism?

Another bit of logic to use here is the power of opposites. In other words, if he is dead its worth more for all those interested to make him perceived alive for the purpose of misinformation dissemination. OTOH, if he were alive I think it would behoove OBL to give the impression that he were dead to provide more operational freedom of movement.

If he's alive, it's probably in a hospital used by Saudi Royalty.

Frank's explanation is pretty much my own theory. I think he is still breathing, but he is in no condition to be a "visible leader". If he was truly dead, I think we would see more of an internal battle over who will succeed him or at least someone stepping up claiming to be the new leader of Al Qaeda. Besides, this is an organization that celebrates death. I think they would proudly announce his martyrdom (whether he died like one or not, they would believe he was with Allah and would pronounce such).

I also believe that if someone in the Bush administration knew he was dead, then that information would leak out if not come from the top. Information explotation might be useful in the short-term, but not over a long time (like since Tora Bora).