It was supposed to be a higher-than-normal hurricane season this year, but it's actually below normal, so far. And of course, some ignorant prognosticators even claimed that it was going to be higher than normal (and that way in the future) due to global warming. Roy Spencer explains both why this is nonsense, and why atmosphere and ocean modelers should be a little more humble.

My wife works for the Southeast River Forecast Center, which is pretty much second only to the NHC in concern over Atlantic hurricanes -- 80% of all U.S.-landfalling tropical storms affect the SERFC's area.

A season like last year's, in which the number of storms exceeded the name list for the first time since names were used, can't help but be an outlier. But the RFC isn't standing down either -- it's impossible to tell from the early season how the rest of the season will look.

Hurricane seasons show tremendous variablility. Back in 1992, the first named storm of the season didn't form until September. Unfortunately, it was a massive storm named Andrew that hit in the Miami area. Pre Katrina, it was the most expensive and destructive storm on record (although, I don't know if that claim holds true when adjusted for inflation).

Just because no hurricanes have hit yet doesn't mean that we are in for a mild season. Several leading hurricane experts claim there is no correlation between hurricane seasons and global warming. Of course, this (so far) mild season will probably be seized upon by the Global Warming True Believers as evidence of global warming. After all, when it gets hot in the summer, its due to global warming. When it gets abnormally cold in the winter, it's also due to global warming. It's a "one size fits all" belief system.

I'm with Spencer. Having worked on the fringe of atmospheric physics in the laser measurement of CO2 absorption coefficients, I quickly became convinced that modelling had a long way to go. The main problem is a poor grasp on interactions, as he clearly points out.

Good on him!

There are plenty of reports out that point to the cyclical nature of storm seasons. We are in a window of increased activity. However, just as in other things of nature's make...increased activity can still mean less storms for this season. Everything in nature is cyclical, but last year's numerous storms was an atypical example on the high side. Perhaps this year will be atypical on the low....but the average will be right on the money.

I bet we see no retractions of the wild claims, they will simply quietly disappear.

And the left will be scared silly by global cooling within 2 decades.

Larry J,
While I have no quarrel with your point about the great variability in Hurricane seasons, your facts about Andrew need correcting. Andrew was named Aug 17 and was a hurricane by Aug 22nd, making landfall on Florida on August 24th, not in September like you assert.