...on Ray Kurzweil. Derek Lowe is optimistic, but not that optimistic:

I agree that we can overcome the major diseases. I really do expect to put cancer, heart disease, the major infections, and the degenerative disorders in their place. But do I expect to do it by 20-flipping-19? No. I do not. I should not like to be forced to put a date on when I think we'll have taken care of the diseases that are responsible for 95% of the mortality in the industrialized world. But I am willing to bet against it happening by 2019, and I will seriously entertain offers from anyone willing to take the other side of that bet.

I hope (as I suspect he does as well) that he's wrong, but fear he's right. Still have to exercise and watch the diet. On the other hand, I do think we've already made pretty good strides on this front, and they may be sufficient to keep me going until whatever date needed.

I was counting more on 2050. I also think that picking a specific date is kind of silly since its going to be something that works by individual. Since I had my heart attack in '02 I figure I'll be getting palliatives for the next several decades and then I'll get a total fix around 2050. So its hard to put an exact date on when heart disease will be 'cured'.

Back in 1971, Nixon launched his War on Cancer with the goal of ending it by 1990 or so. Over 3 decades and billions of dollars later, cancer is still killing several hundred thousand Americans every year. Sure, we've made great strides but I somehow doubt we'll end cancer in the next 13 years.

Mmmm 2050 you say MM, I would be pushing 90. Which would be good for me, since few in my family make it that far.

I love Kurz's books for their imaginative extrapolationist thinking but do I am not a true believer of the hype. We're making great strides against cancer, reducing mortality in increments and I expect even more progress in the decades to come but 2019 is pure hyperbole.

No question that biotech and molecular level medical engineering will help but the event horizon is further away.