An interesting interview with Walid Phares, on the Middle East:

The U.S. and its allies can be accused of certain shortcomings as well. While the speeches by the U.S. president, congressional leaders from both parties, Tony Blair, and Jacques Chirac were right on target regarding Lebanon, and while the U.S. and its counterparts on the Security Council were diligent in their follow up on the Hariri assassination and on implementing UNSCR 1559, there was no policy or plan to support the popular movement in Lebanon. Incredibly, while billions were spent on the war of ideas in the region, Lebanese NGOs that wanted to resume the struggle of the Cedar Revolution and fighting alone for this purpose were not taken seriously at various levels. Policy planners thought they were dealing with the “Cedar Revolution” when they were meeting Lebanon’s government and Lebanese politicians. The difference between the high level speeches on Lebanon and the laissez-faire approach from lower levels is amazing. Simply put, there was no policy on supporting the Cedar Revolution against the three regimes opposing it and the $400 million received by Hezbollah from Iran.

...What is Israel’s plan in Lebanon? If its plan is mainly to bomb the infrastructure until a major political change occurs, it is unlikely to succeed. Analysts do not assume that this is the Israeli plan, since Hezbollah’s strategic ability to reemerge won’t be eliminated from the skies. Besides, all competent experts on Lebanon know that bombing until the Lebanese government does something also won’t work. This government, which failed to request international intervention when the conditions were favorable and has included Hezbollah and pro-Syrian ministers in its cabinet, is completely paralyzed.

A continuous “bombing-only” approach would hugely degrade Hezbollah’s infrastructure, but would also lead to the collapse of this government and the formation of a radical pro-Syrian, pro-Iranian government in Beirut. There would be a cease fire then, and Israel would get a year of respite, maybe less, before the Iranians and the Syrians would re-arm the new Hezbollah-led government in Lebanon. Meanwhile, the Cedar Revolution would be massacred and regional pressures would revert to Iraq.

Israel’s war with Hezbollah is not about the kidnapped soldiers or Katiushas. It is about Hezbollah’s attempt to remain a state within a state, and, along with Syria, to threaten Israel with missiles while Iran completes its nuclear armament. The rest can be easily imagined. And as long as there is no strategic change in Lebanon, starting with Hezbollah’s disarming and having international forces taking the control of the Lebanese-Syrian and Lebanese-Israeli borders, the bombings may give Israel some time, but will eventually transform Lebanon into an extension of Iran.

100% spot on:

Israel’s war with Hezbollah is not about the kidnapped soldiers or Katiushas. It is about Hezbollah’s attempt to remain a state within a state, and, along with Syria, to threaten Israel with missiles while Iran completes its nuclear armament.

Hezbollah must be dismantled with infantry and Merkavas. And Hezbollah has cached thousands of anti-tank rockets on every hilltop in southern Lebanon. It will be ugly and bloody. Like with Iwo Jima and Okinawa, the IDF will win but its going to be a slog.

But unless Hezbollah is "de-fanged" of its anti-tank rockets as well as rockets that can hit Israel, any patrol passing through southern Lebanon may find itself hit without warning. If Hezbollah remains essentially a state within a state, once this battle is over, every anti-Hezbollah mayor across Lebanon will simply vanish.

Air power can assist, but this is a ground war.

Heh! Not thousands on every hilltop, thousands spread across every hilltop.

Saw a Jerusalem Post story (I think it was there) that some Hezbollah have infra red defeating long johns so they can lay in the bushes (with their anti-tank rockets) and not be seen by IR equipped drones.

It is a very interesting interview. A trifle ethnocentric, seeing Lebanon as ground zero for everything, but I suppose that's understandable given his origin.

I think he's absolutely right that it was an act of stupidity for the West not to follow up on the infant Cedar Revolution with much more active support for its heirs. We have forgotten Lafayette, perhaps. Shameful.

One hopes Lebanon does not suffer from what Palestine evidently does: the best and the brightest may have long since given up on the motherland and emigrated, leaving the least effectual people behind. This place claims there are already 3 million Americans of Lebanese descent -- and the population of Lebanon itself is only 4 million.