I'll be talking about my NRO piece, NASA, the Shuttle and the future of human spaceflight on the Ron Smith Show this afternoon, a little after 3:30 Eastern.

[Update a few minutes later]

Apparently, just before me, the guest host (Ron Smith is apparently on vacation) is going to be talking to a Matt Towery, who had this "Scuttle the Shuttle" piece at Townhall.com yesterday. It seems a little incoherent to me--it's not clear what he's proposing in its place, and the logic doesn't necessarily hold together:

Experts still refer to the shuttle as an "experimental craft," one in which the odds of a catastrophic failure -- loss of the shuttle or the crew or both -- are somewhere between one in 60 and one in 100 launches. Would you get on a conveyance of any kind that had one chance in 60 of killing you?

Well, in general, no. But if I thought that it were my one and only chance of getting into space, I might spin the cartridges on the revolver--it's ten times better odds than classical Russian roulette, with a heck of a payoff. If not one in sixty, what is the right number?

The Shuttle safety debate often reminds me of the irrationality of the fifty-five-mph speed limit. Or the minimum wage. These people think that there's some rational basis for their arbitrary numerology, but you can never get them to explain it.

We could end this whole issue with a couple of well spoken and passionate astronauts and a few minutes of air time. Who better than they to speak to the dangers of their profession, and their acceptance of the risk. I think a ten minute NASA press conference would do the trick. While they're at it a couple of Apollo veterans wouldn't hurt to give it some context.

I think this is a remarkable blindspot in this argument. Just asking if you'd take a 1 in 100 chance on a vehicle without mentioning the costs and benefits? We could do similar arguments for police, firefighters, taxi drivers, or construction workers. Ie, since these jobs involve a substantially increased risk of loss of life, then no one should do them. Everyone should be college professors or accountants.

Woud you risk driving across town at 1 to 100 odds if you knew that if you made it, you could claim 10 million dollars? I would.

And a ride into orbit would be worth that to me.

If you're gonna die, die with your boots on!

"And while I anticipate nothing less than a spectacular success in the coming mission, I admit I'll be uneasy from launch to splashdown as our nation once again puts a brave crew inside a patched and re-patched spacecraft that might be of better service in an aerospace museum. "

Mr. Towery,

It is my fond desire that they do not 'splash down' and I will be quite uneasy if they do.