Gerard Baker says that Condi is playing a losing hand on Iran.

Is there a winning hand to play on Iran?

Yep! That's a good question. I'm eagerly waiting to know that.

The down side is that in Iran the only winning hand may be to forceably remove the mullahs from their perch.

I don't understand anyone who believes that giving the Iranian government nuclear fuel is going to stop them from trying to make a nuclear device. All they need to do is change their anti-Israel task to dirty bombs, as opposed to an outright nuclear explosive device.

I doubt if Iranian President Gotabigmouthonme cares if Israelis die in a bright flash or from radiation poisoning. He just wants dead Jews.

I continue to suspect that Iran's nuclear program is not nearly as far along as they're presenting, and that the US government knows this and is reacting accordingly. I also imagine the Iranian government has been told in no uncertain terms what would happen if they used nuclear weapons (or provide weapons to others that were then used) against the US or its allies.

Paul,
if the U.N. sends this case of "no uncertain terms" they can use the documents they sent to Saddam and just use White Out to change the "Q" in Iraq, to an "N".

I expect the effect will be the same except the Iranians have a timeline. They'll know they are free to do whatever they want for 12 years.

All they need to do is change their anti-Israel task to dirty bombs, as opposed to an outright nuclear explosive device.

This would be a major drop in their military capability if they had radiological bombs instead of nuclear bombs. If Iran is really going to do something that will get them nuked, it might as well be with the pop-gun of WMD.

The bigger question is, who is Condi doing this for, the Iranians or the Europeans?

If the true audience is the latter, then this play makes more sense. Of course, we still have to face the possibility that Europe is still more interested in "humbling" us than in stopping a growing threat.

China and Russia won't be swayed either way. Only cash and power will get you anywhere with them.

Given the example of Britain allowing London to become a center for Islamic terrorism as long as the targets were the U.S. and Israel, I think the Europeans would be quite happy to see us tied down until Iran does get the Bomb. Their loyalty does not lie with us, as a fellow western country, "ally" or "friend", but with their own selfish interests. I still suspect Europe is conducting a covert proxy war against the U.S. using Islamic terrorists, and this continued delay through diplomacy just plays into their hands.