So, China is going to wait another two and a half years before their next, and third human spaceflight. That makes it one flight every two and a half years. And we're supposed to be worried about them denying us the moon?

Laurence Simon has a space tourism post up on IMAO:
http://www.imao.us/archives/005284.html

Why do we even really concern ourselves with this post soviet nations?

They MUST maintain a military to be treated like grown up's, when in fact it just proves their adolescence, SPECIALLY considering the fact that we destroyed the soviets with economics!!!

I have a big brother, he's 6 years older than me. You know the easiest way for me to get my butt kicked? well, tough I'm telling you anyway. The easiest way for me to find a butt kicking was for me to think I was as big and tough as my big brother, and his friends. Let china think they can stand up to US, and let them think they know what they are doing, then, while their economy tanks, and their allies won't bail them out, we, the equivalent of my big brother, will laugh at them, pat them on the head, and then bleed them dry for as long as we please.

Certainly not much in the way of economies of scale in their pace...

"And we're supposed to be worried about them denying us the moon?"

Yes.

Well, we'll give you points for consistency, Mark (at least on this subject), even if your position remains baseless and silly.

A thoughful and well reasoned rebuttal as always, Rand. But then, since alt.space is going to beat even NASA to the Moon (at least according to Jim Muncy), perhaps we have nothing to worry about after all.

Well, it's not just Jim Muncy. I'm on record as saying that as well. We're waiting for a well-reasoned story as to why we should be quaking in our boots about a Chinese space program that can only put people into orbit three times in five years. They don't seem to be in as big a rush to take over the cosmos as you would have them.

I never said the Chinese were in a rush. Just steady and unflagging. If they get to the Moon first (and I can seen quite a few scenarios in which they do) then we're in for a lot of hurt.

I also was fascinated by Muncy's remarks. First he complains that COTS is "peanuts" and suggests that people demand that it be better funded. It seems to imply that alt.space won't get into LEO any time soon unless NASA is more forthcoming. Yet he (and I guess you) suggests that the same folks that can't get into LEO without NASA will go to the Moon before NASA. Now that doesn't compute.

Mind, if someone could convince me that an increase in COTS funding won't make it into a subsidy instead of an incentive, then I'd be for it. But I think you would agree (and to be consistant you had better) that commercial space does not need to go down the road of being totally dependent on the government for markets. Alt.space needs to find more sources of private capital and develop more private markets if it is to succeed,

It seems to imply that alt.space won't get into LEO any time soon unless NASA is more forthcoming.

No, it just implies that if NASA is more forthcoming, the probability will increase, and it will happen more quickly. It will still happen before NASA gets to the moon (since that's unlikely to happen, in your words, any time soon, if ever).

Mind, if someone could convince me that an increase in COTS funding won't make it into a subsidy instead of an incentive, then I'd be for it.

The distinction between subsidy and "incentive" is not quantitative. You need to understand what those words mean, or explain what you think they mean, if this is to make any sense to the rest of us. You also need to explain why a "subsidy" of a useful industry is somehow worse than a cost-plus government contract for something of use only to NASA.

"can" or "choose"?

I suspect the latter

They are following in our footsteps. They need only fly when it is necessary to validate a technological milestone in the field. If you think on it, four or five such flights could get them at least to Lunar orbit.

I do not believe that we are in DIRE SPACE RACE WITH THE GODLESS COMMIES, but I would not be suprised if the next guy on the moon is Chinese. It would not be the end of the world and on that day I would symbolically wave my "little red flag". You go, guys!

I would not be suprised because I do not believe that the US has the political will for follow thru with VSE as it stands or in any other acceptable variant beyond some power point charts and maybe a few billion down the toilet. It's all smoke and mirrors and in the end will be just one more heap of trash tossed on President Bush's political grave.

As for the alt.space guys waiting for anybody on the moon, more power to them says I and I hope and believe that they will eventually make it, but I honestly do not see a near term business case. I know that a lot of folks are convinced that they can get rich selling each other LUNOX, but I am not convinced.

However I absolutly agree that space will not be opened up until folks do figure out how to get rich. It's there, no doubt. It's really the only way.

My 2 cents as if it matters.

"It seems to imply that alt.space won't get into LEO any time soon unless NASA is more forthcoming.

No, it just implies that if NASA is more forthcoming, the probability will increase, and it will happen more quickly. It will still happen before NASA gets to the moon (since that's unlikely to happen, in your words, any time soon, if ever)."

Oh, I agree that alt.space will get into LEO before NASA gets to the Moon. Given the incentives provided by COTS, I think that's a given.

"The distinction between subsidy and "incentive" is not quantitative. You need to understand what those words mean, or explain what you think they mean, if this is to make any sense to the rest of us. You also need to explain why a "subsidy" of a useful industry is somehow worse than a cost-plus government contract for something of use only to NASA."

I'm against the government paying for the entire cost or even a substantial cost of developing commercial space vehicles. That makes commercial space too dependent on the government. I guess you disagree. (Or maybe not, since I anticipate now another, "I didn't say what I just said!" (g)

Oh, I agree that alt.space will get into LEO before NASA gets to the Moon. Given the incentives provided by COTS, I think that's a given.

It is pretty much even without them.

I'm against the government paying for the entire cost or even a substantial cost of developing commercial space vehicles.

So am I, but it would still be a lot better use of the money than anything else they've done since Apollo. Certainly better than ESAS.

I certainly disagree with that last statement; even it's premise. ESAS is simply taking up where Apollo left off, not redoing it. For those who complain that ESAS is not "commercial enough", my reponse is to ask: Where are the commercial Moon ships? Who is building them? Who has even designed them?

My suspician that around 2020 or so, once the Moon base is up, a lunar COTS will be started, provided that the first one works as advertised.

Rand Said

well. We're waiting for a well-reasoned story as to why we should be quaking in our boots about a Chinese space program that can only put people into orbit three times in five years. They don't seem to be in as big a rush to take over the cosmos as you would have them.

Don't forget that they are using tech stolen from us, and sold to them by Russia, that is 40 years old.

I'm not affraid of anyone who accomplishes less with anything I gave them.

In fact I'm not affraid of anything, even elephents or lions, that are dumber than me.

It takes only a small attitude change to survive, that is why Humans are dominant, and it is also why Americans are the GodS of all things tech, with some ass elbow work done in AU and UK.

> "And we're supposed to be worried about them denying us the moon?"

> Yes.

"The only thing we have to fear is fear itself." -- Franklin Roosevelt

"The sky is falling! Run away! Run away!" -- Chicken Little

> You also need to explain why a "subsidy" of a useful industry is somehow
> worse than a cost-plus government contract for something of use only to NASA.

Perhaps because the current subsidies go to Clear Lake, and Mark is the self-proclaimed "senior policy analyst for the Clear Lake Group?"

http://www.xula.edu/xulanexus/issue3/Washington.html

Children......

I don't know who's going to get to the moon next. I don't know when they're going it do it either. But I have my notions and might even be enticed to put up a few bucks worth of friendly action on these questions. I recommend that Mark, Rand and any other steely-eyed missile men with a rooting interest do likewise. State your propositions and back your brags. Nothing Randi-esque or even Simon/Ehrlich-esque required. Just put some money where the mouths are. The rest of us can choose sides, sweeten the pots, or just stand by and watch as we like. We can all revisit matters as key dates pass or key events occur - whatever the up-front wagering determines that these should be. I, for one, would like to see the space community accomplish something more impressive than making the Guiness Book of World Records for the first affinity group to generate a full petabyte of pettiness, one blog post at a time.

You can always set up something through Long Bets (longbets.org).

Rand and Mark should create a joint blog called "Mark, you ignorant slut!" It's a bit cliched to have two people constantly bickering like an old couple, but if they work on it, this could be amusing.

On this I can agree with Jim.

Mark bickers with anyone who is not a knee-jerk liberal republican. Ehr, I mean "compassionate conservative."

I've gotta admit, Rand and Mark's occasional scraps are sure entertaining.

How boring it would be if everyone agreed (I'd suspect a mind control satellite in orbit, get yer tinfoil hats ready.)

China has some pretty significant economic ties to this country, but I wouldn't presume that will keep us from getting into a scrap with them. We're still dealing with the same guys that had a pilot knock down one of our surveilance craft (the hard way!) then got hard-nosed about letting go of the crew.

A flight every two years could lead to a very large presence off-world if that's there goal. From orbit they could very well negate the naval advantage we have by taking out carriers with smart rocks. It was our arrogance and complacency that allows 19 guys with the equivalent of sharpened butter knives to take us to our knees for a short period of time (and I'm still pissed!)

Not everybody in China has to hate us for war to happen, just the guys willing to kill their own citizens (children really) for peacefully protesting.

A flight every two years could lead to a very large presence off-world if that's there goal.

Yes, in a few hundred years...

From orbit they could very well negate the naval advantage we have by taking out carriers with smart rocks.

If they want to attempt that, it has nothing to do with putting men up in little capsules every couple years.