Trent Telenko thinks that Iran may already have nukes. It would fit the current pattern of their behavior, unfortunately.

I had always felt that if I were a rogue nation I'd buy my first couple of nukes as insurance as I tried to build my own.

Personally I think the Iranians missed out on that one and my gut instinct is they are farther behind in creating nukes than they are letting on. In fact they are almost begging to be attacked. An attack would (a) Give cover to their failure to create nukes (b) Hopefully rally Iran together against an external foe.

The question is do I trust my gut enough to risk them developing nukes and the answer is no.

After reading the article and this article http://www.tcsdaily.com/article.aspx?id=021506A on al Sadar I am being drawn (kicking and screaming) to the conclusion that only way to successfully move a country to democracy is the Japanese model: Total control of security both internal and external until the population has an actual taste of democracy and its fruits. Only then will they fight to prevent its upheaval.
I see all the well intentioned work in Iraq being undermined by a few whose intention is to return to the form of governing to which they are more comfortable. In a world run by the post war governance of Japan these people would feel the boot again, world opinion be damned.
We are amongst a population that would gladly sacrifice their freedoms and live under oppression if only their security were restored. Once you have lived beneath the boot. It is uncomfortable to reconcile the fact that all those around you, both friend and enemy have been granted the same freedoms. Without some time to acclimate I don’t know if a solid majority of democratized individuals can be formed.

The short term future is crystal clear. After we are nuked, sedition will again become a real crime and a house-cleaning will occur. Then threats abroad won't amount to much. We will be much more effective in reducing them. It's sad it will come to this. That's the short term.

The long term will be the strategic struggle for the high ground. That future is not so clear.