Polls indicate that the Conservatives have a chance of getting a majority in the Canadian parliament. At the least, they may be able to get a governing coalition by peeling off just a few members, rather than having to do a grand deal with the Block Quebecois. As is the case down here with the Democrats, I'm less thrilled with seeing the Tories win than I am in seeing the Liberals lose big. Sic semper tyrannis corruptis.

I'll bet Belinda Stronach is having a big-league case of buyers' remorse now, for her thirty pieces of silver. What a difference a few months makes. Maybe she and fellow turncoat Jim Jeffords can start a club.

On the other hand, if it's that close, she'll no doubt be one of the MPs that they peel off to form their majority. She knows she doesn't have much future with the current Liberals, and we already know what she is--it will just be a matter of haggling over the price. Simply letting her keep her current cabinet position would probably suffice, considering the alternative.

If the current polls hold on election day (January 23rd) then Belinda Stronach will lose her seat.

155 seats are required to for a majority in a Canadian Parliament. Current seat projections show the Conservatives winning 154 seats, and the Green Party winning its first-ever seat. The Green Party could conceivably hold the balance of power in the next Parliament.

I'm hopeful for a Conservative majority, as it would mean uninterrupted--and hopefully reasonably competent--governance for four or five years, but I'm really expecting a strong minority. Ironically, I think it's the Liberals themselves who would prop up the Conservatives for a year or two in that case. Simply put, the Liberals are going to have to lose their current leader, as well as many other higher-ups, before they'll be ready again. They can't be in the middle of rebuilding and running in another election at the same time, unless they want to ensure a Conservative majority.

I don't see the Conservatives taking back Stronach anytime soon. Far too much bitterness and bad blood. However, I really don't think they'll need her. Either they'll have a majority, and be good to go, or they'll have a minority being surreptitiously propped up by the Liberals, who'll be rebuilding their support and waiting for a moment of weakness.

Hey, Canadian politics gets (somewhat) exciting. Who knew?