Transterrestrial Musings

Comments

re: "The trick is to harness this misguided lunacy to use it to improve international relations and lower the cost of space access."

The latter seems a matter of course, with more players in the game. The former, however, will prove much more difficult.

Posted by Hunter at November 7, 2005 12:10 PM

Players are exiting as others enter. No guarantee that prices will fall if gov't still awards cost plus contracts.

Posted by Sam Dinkin at November 7, 2005 12:45 PM

For one thing, China has done something twice that neither Rutan or Musk has succeeded in doing. Putting people into low Earth orbit. I'm not sure I understand how that is a "dead end."

Posted by Mark R Whittington at November 7, 2005 12:48 PM

=IF= Dennis Wingo is correct and intact Ni-Fe asteroid fragments bearing PGM exist near the lunar surface, those won't be everywhere either. 70% of Terra's platinum comes from one source, Merensky Reef in South Africa, the site on an ancient Ni-Fe asteroid impact.

Imagine one crater - - Heh! - - Lets call it "Wingo Crater" that is filled with Ni-Fe fragments. Everywhere else has the usual stuff, silicon, aluminum etc. . .

Under the "non-interference" provision of the Outer Space Treaty of 1967 if one nation started mining Wingo Crater and stuck little plastic flags and robotic survey equipment on all of the most promising bolders, it isn't clear to me that anyone else could move ("interfere with") that equipment. They cannot claim ownership, but if little worker bee robots were busy polishing the most promising fragments, a de facto form of ownership will most likely result.

China lands a few teams of taikonauts with "obsolete" Shenzou launchers and they flag and tag the most promising PGM bearing rocks. A Hong Kong business team then joins the Space Access Society and purchases shiny new alt-space rockets to mine their claim.

Posted by Bill White at November 7, 2005 01:06 PM

Bill's scenario is rather plausible, though the Hong Kong firm may be a PLA owned front.

Posted by Mark R Whittington at November 7, 2005 01:14 PM

If genuine alt-space LEO access is developed, it will proliferate. No way to stop it.

For example, imagine an American born engineer of Chinese descent working at an American alt-space firm is offered a large pile of dollars to fly to Beijing and head up a Chinese design team - - if s/he brings his data disks.

Suppose s/he is Irish, for that matter.

Posted by Bill White at November 7, 2005 01:26 PM

" Imagine one crater - - Heh! - - Lets call it "Wingo Crater" that is filled
> with Ni-Fe fragments. Everywhere else has the usual stuff, silicon, aluminum etc. . .

Imagine that it only happened once, in the four-billion year history of the Moon?

Why should we imagine that?

> Under the "non-interference" provision of the Outer Space Treaty of 1967
> if one nation started mining Wingo Crater and stuck little plastic flags
> and robotic survey equipment on all of the most promising bolders, it
> isn't clear to me that anyone else could move ("interfere with") that equipment.

Bill, as a lawyer, you should know that "international law" isn't law. If it were a matter of national security, as you guys claim, the US could simply abrogate the treaty.

Of course, if the Chinese launched enough plastic to completely cover a crater, using ELVs, the launch costs would probably be more than the value of anything they recovered from the crater. If they did that very often, they would soon be bankrupt. So, this scenario isn't really a threat to national security.

> A Hong Kong business team then joins the Space Access Society and purchases
> shiny new alt-space rockets to mine their claim.

They can't do that. ITARS won't allow it, unless the US government approves -- and why do you think the government would allow it, if it's really a threat to national security?

Besides, there's no evidence the Communists are smart enough to buy "alt-space" rockets. The evidence shows they prefer to pour their money down the Apollo rathole, like NASA.

Posted by Edward Wright at November 7, 2005 02:10 PM

" Imagine one crater - - Heh! - - Lets call it "Wingo Crater" that is filled
> with Ni-Fe fragments. Everywhere else has the usual stuff, silicon, aluminum etc. . .

Imagine that it only happened once, in the four-billion year history of the Moon?

Why should we imagine that?

= = =

70% of Terran platinum comes from one site, today.

Posted by Bill White at November 7, 2005 02:59 PM

I find the fantasies concerning the Chinese "space race" to be a bit outlandish at best. There is no "race". To any rational observer, China is not rushing headlong into manned spaceflight. They are going very, very, very slowly. They are undertaking manned launches at a rate much slower than one per year. And won't improve on that rate much for quite some time. Remember that historically it took the US only about a decade to go from one initial manned spaceflight to extended lunar missions and space stations, developing a handful of different spacecraft along the way (Mercury, Gemini, Apollo SM & LM, Skylab, etc.) The Soviets produced similar achievements in a similar timeframe (sans the lunar stuff). And this was all doing it the first time with 1960s technology. By all accounts a country like China (or, say, India or France or Britain or Japan) should be able to exceed the accomplishments and pace of the first space race quite easily. Yet the Chinese are taking it slow. This is because the Chinese manned space program, like all space programs really, is not about "conquering space" or some such, but about national prestige. And to fail in an endeavor that has been done by other nations repeatedly for several decades is not too good for national prestige. Especially so in a culture as highly concerned with "face" as the Chinese are. Thus, the Chinese need to walk their way up to the manned spaceflight stage. Which they are doing.

As for their talk of lunar resources and whatnot, I chalk that up to the same sort of thing as the talk of the wonders of micro-gravity research. A limp justification for a program that can't be justified honestly and directly (you can't just say "this program is for national prestige", so you need to go through the clever dance to pretend it's not though most people support it for that very reason anyway). The actual viability of lunar resources is quite dubious in the short term, especially when Earth is the only market for them and when they are being exploited via extraordinarily inefficient government bureaucracies. Especially so for Helium-3 extraction, which would require an extraordinarily robust lunar mining infrastructure and yet requires fusion technology which has not even been designed yet.

Posted by Robin Goodfellow at November 7, 2005 03:45 PM

For one thing, China has done something twice that neither Rutan or Musk has succeeded in doing. Putting people into low Earth orbit. I'm not sure I understand how that is a "dead end."

When Rutan or Musk have failed to do so after spending two billion dollars and several years on it, get back to me.

I find the fantasies concerning the Chinese "space race" to be a bit outlandish at best.

Yes. At best.

You're being kind.

Posted by Rand Simberg at November 7, 2005 05:20 PM

Let's assume, for a moment, that Mark is right. They Chinese intend to conquer the Moon. National security is at stake. This is a race for survival.

Assuming that's right, what should we be doing? Pouring money into Military Space Plane? Developing ASAT weapons? Creating a US Space Force?

That's what I'd do if I thought the Chinese space program was a threat. (In fact, I support all those things even though I don't believe the Chinese space program is a threat.)

Yet, the US isn't doing any of those things. The Vision of Space Exploration is entirely NASA-centric. It not only excludes the private sector but the military as well.

So, we're supposed to believe that the Chinese space program is a threat to our national security -- and our only response is to send a couple of guys with rock hammers? :-)

Posted by Edward Wright at November 7, 2005 06:54 PM

A rock hammer in space can be a pretty vicious weapon =P A few pings to the faceplate should be all it takes to exact great justice upon your enemies. Jack Schmitt has demonstrated that its possible to throw your hammer from far away at claim squatters even.

Posted by Josh Reiter at November 8, 2005 09:48 AM

Quote from Bill White: "70% of Terra's platinum comes from one source, Merensky Reef in South Africa, the site on an ancient Ni-Fe asteroid impact."

You've been peaking my interests here lately with your ideas about the need for PGM resources in terms of energy production. However, I was reading around on facts regarding the The Merensky Reef you mentioned. I was browsing around the great 'Net and found this article about Platinum. In it I found a number of contradictions to your assertions regarding Merensky reef. One being that the Merensky Reef is actually one of several reef formations comprising the Bushveld Igneous Complex. As per the name of this complex would suggest that this is a volcanic formation suggesting that material came from deep within the earth and has risen to the surface through cracks and fissures. I haven't seen anywhere that indicates this was the result of an asteroid impact or were deposited here by an extraterrestrial source. Also another point of contention per this site link, "The Merensky Reef is the source of over 80 per cent
of the platinum mined in South Africa". That is South Africa not the entire Earth. In fact, its the entire BIC, of which the Merensky reef is just one part, is estimated to comprise approx. 56% of the Earths total recoverable Platinum stock. Which I understand is still impressive but just wanted to prove that I've got the internet and I can fact check yo' a$$

Posted by Josh Reiter at November 8, 2005 11:13 AM

Josh, fact check my a$$, please. Seriously. I am teaching myself this stuff as I go along so your corrections are greatly appreciated.

Okay, Merensky Reef is part of a larger complex. Fair enough, my last post was sloppy.

I believe there is geological controversy about Bushveld (asteroidal vs volcanic) but IF Merensky Reef is volcanic, that enhances my main point concerning lunar platinum impact sites. IF the Bushveld is volcanic, Luna will lack a Bushveld parallel since we believe heavy metals were excluded when the Moon was formed.

Sudbury is asteroidal as are certain other locations on Earth. Those locations are real but rare. Therefore PGM bearing craters (if they exist at all) will not be scattered all over Luna. There will only be a few and therefore "finders keepers" is a very real potential scenario.

TODAY, lunar prospecting from low lunar orbit offers a real potential return on investment if that surveying pinpoints likely PGM impact sites.

= = =

Exclude PGM mining and I am hard pressed to see viable near term commercial opportunities on the Moon. Remove PGM mining and I revert to "practice on the Moon" so we can go on to the asteorids and Mars.

= = =

Finally, I see myself as working to help figure out how to make humanity spacefaring. Being smacked down from time to time in the all intarweb debate competition is annoying but ultimately irelevant. ;-)

Show me how and where I am wrong and I will be grateful. Truly.

Posted by Bill White at November 8, 2005 12:36 PM

> A rock hammer in space can be a pretty vicious weapon =P A few pings to the
> faceplate should be all it takes to exact great justice upon your enemies.
> Jack Schmitt has demonstrated that its possible to throw your hammer
> from far away at claim squatters even.

That sounds like something Mark would recommend. Perhaps the NASA Lunar Defense Forces could carry sickles, too -- Mark's-ism, indeed! :-)

I still prefer "evil libertarians" like Ronald Reagan, whose economic and defense policies actually worked.

Posted by Edward Wright at November 8, 2005 01:59 PM

Platinum and palladium production from the BIC represents 72% and 34% of annual global production respectively.

Merensky Reef is only a portion of the BIC, however the 70% figure appears correct for platinum.

Posted by Bill White at November 8, 2005 03:14 PM

> Therefore PGM bearing craters (if they exist at all) will not be
> scattered all over Luna. There will only be a few

"Few" is not the same as "one," which you assumed previously.

Okay, let's assume there are "few" -- what makes you think the Chinese will manage to find them all? The Moon has a surface area as large as Africa. That's a huge area to explore, even with satellites. Do you really think the Chinese can cover all of it with a few Apollo-style landings and a few man-hours on each landing?

Most importantly, the Moon isn't the only place in the solar system to find platinum or asteroid material. There has been at least major find on Earth, since Dennis published "Moon Rush." Then there are the asteroids themselves, many of which are easier to reach than the Moon. If asteroid material is as rare as you say on the Moon, we can go right to the source.

> Show me how and where I am wrong and I will be grateful. Truly.

You're wrong in thinking it's impossible to reduce the cost of space transportation or that we have to "wait" to do that. You're also wrong in thinking you can ignore transportation costs. Your "pump priming" analogy assumes that platinum will flow like water after the pump is primed. It will never flow freely as long as everything needed from Earth to support the mining operations costs tens of thousands of dollars per pound. Mining only becomes feasible when the cost of transportation is less than the value of the stuff being mined.

Posted by Edward Wright at November 8, 2005 04:52 PM

You're wrong in thinking it's impossible to reduce the cost of space transportation or that we have to "wait" to do that. You're also wrong in thinking you can ignore transportation costs.

Where did I ever say "ignore" transportation costs?

Today, the Earth-to-LEO market is saturated with supply with too little demand. Without new sources of demand (other than taxpayer subsidized missions)no one will invest the $$$ needed to achieve low cost Earth-to-LEO. Chickens and eggs.

"But they are" some say. Who?

t/Space has ONE initial customer, crew & supply rotation to ISS and apparently they NEED a NASA contract to get the funding needed to fly their system.

Elon Musk just filed a lawsuit allegeding Boeing and Lockheed are freezing him out fo the market. He doesn't file that lawsuit if his future is so bright he needs shades. One launch for Bigelow (which is waaay cool) and a fistful of government launches.

= = =

If the US Congress truly wanted to energize alt-space, I would propose that they launch a genuine, honest-to-God space hotel on a big taxpayer purchased rocket. One or two shots (no modular, 5 years to build, program) - - maybe Russia's FGB-2 plus a Bigelow inflatable. That would sleep 6 or 8.

Then, announce that anyone who can get there by private (no tax dollars) launch can stay for free (subject to reasonable rules to not overcrowd the facility).

Uncle Sam's guests gotta clean up, however. No maid service.

Posted by Bill White at November 9, 2005 07:25 AM

Need the biggest cleaning deposit ever. $27 million?

Posted by Sam Dinkin at November 9, 2005 07:37 AM

Then there are the asteroids themselves, many of which are easier to reach than the Moon. If asteroid material is as rare as you say on the Moon, we can go right to the source.

I won't say NO to this. Go mine asteroids and I will cheer.

That said, supposedly gravity (even 1/6th gravity) will make mining easier. Living on the moon and being merely three days away can help also. But remember, I came to this party as a Mars-guy first. Want to go to the asteroids first?

Okay, if it really is easier.

But remember, there are other cool thigns to do on the Moon. I LOVE the idea presented by Pete Worden to build an enormous liquid telescope on the Moon and do deep, deep sky observing.

Lunar tourism would benefit enormously from a grand tour that included Lunar Materials LLC PGM mines, the Apollo sites, and a 2000 inch liquid mercury deep field telescope.

Posted by Bill White at November 9, 2005 07:45 AM

Cost of transportation:

Earth-to-LEO has a 90/10 mass fraction.

Apollo LEM ascent was better than 50% using low ISP hypergolics. Using methane/LOX or H2/LOX and it gets even better.

By mass, LOX is 80% of the methane/LOX equation and 89% of H2/LOX equation.

If 1 kg of propellant can lift 3 kg of payload (25-75 mass fraction) from the lunar surface and if we use lower performing but more easily stored methane then 1 kg of methane shipped from Earth can be combusted with lunar LOX to lift 15 kg of lunar material.

Using MER style airbag delivery, Proton can lift to LEO at $1000 per pound and perhaps $4500 or $5000 per pound to lunar surface.

Suppose Falcon(s) or Dneper(s) or Proton delivers 10,000 pounds of CH4 to Luna for $50 million. Combined with lunar LOX that can lift 150,000 pounds of lunar materials.

Earth-to-LEO lift of propellant is $333 per pound of your Luna-to-Earth cost equation. You can sell lunar platinum today at $16,000 per pound (current market price).

But PGM is hard to mine. Lets start with nickel.

I betcha we can sell genuine lunar nickel tableware (forks, spoons, knives) made by nickel vapor deposition (digest metallic nickel via carbonyl process and vapor deposit - perhaps with Tom Hanks signature in raised relief - to form all sorts of collectibles) for $5,000 per pound.

Find a genuine Dennis Wingo Ni-Fe asteroid fragment and we can extract nickel long before getting to the platinum and we can sell the nickel as a prestige item for many thousands of dollars per pound.

Then, after we digest away the nickel, guess what?

There be PGMS left over.

Posted by Bill White at November 9, 2005 08:04 AM

Cost of transportation:

Earth-to-LEO has a 90/10 mass fraction.

Apollo LEM ascent was better than 50% using low ISP hypergolics. Using methane/LOX or H2/LOX and it gets even better.

By mass, LOX is 80% of the methane/LOX equation and 89% of H2/LOX equation.

Using MER style airbag delivery, Proton can lift to LEO at $1000 per pound and perhaps $4500 or $5000 per pound to lunar surface.

Suppose Falcon(s) or Dneper(s) or Proton delivers 10,000 pounds of CH4 to Luna for $50 million. Combined with lunar LOX that can lift 150,000 pounds of lunar materials.

Earth-to-LEO lift of propellant is $333 per pound of your Luna-to-Earth cost equation. You can sell lunar platinum today at $16,000 per pound (current market price).

But PGM is hard to mine. Lets start with nickel.

Then, after we digest away the nickel, guess what?

There be PGMS left over.

Posted by Bill White at November 9, 2005 08:23 AM

Post a comment