An article in this week's Economist says that hurricanes are getting worse. It doesn't offer any particular support for the theory that this is a result of global warming, though. And the sample that it shows is only over the last third of a century, so it's entirely possible (and even likely, if one goes back further for data) that this is a periodic phenomenon, not a secular one. We're simply heading into a near-term period of increased activity. It's not a propitious time to own real estate near the Florida coast (as we do).

One wonders whether it's the hurricanes that are getting worse, or the effects?

Which is to say, as more and more people choose to live near the coasts, in flood-plains, etc., the impact of hurricanes is likely to get worse, even if they were no more violent than they were, say, fifty years ago.

A tornado rolling over the area around Dulles or Denver International Airports in 1970 would've mostly torn up agricultural land and open spaces. Now, there's a lot more build-up, so the same tornado is likely to induce far more destruction.

Considering the wealth of statistics on the cyclical nature of past ice ages, it would seem that most things in nature follow cycles. Discovery had a show (2 years ago?) about hurricanes going through highly active cycles of about 30 years before going into a 30 year slump. The show suggested that we were once again entering a more active cycle. Global warming however, was not mentioned....probably because it doesn't exist as the left wishes us to believe.

The link is to a graphic I created using data from NOAA from 1850 to 2004. The website with the data is here:
http://www.nhc.noaa.gov/pastdec.shtml?

The only thing I did to the data was to double the 2001-2004 data to extrapolate so that it was more like a decade worth of data instead of the four years' worth that it is. I think I might add a point with the ratio of "3-5" to "All".

In any case, the previous decade was below the average, and the present decade might just break the average. No further statistical analysis from me, though, as I've got enough spacecraft dynamics and spacecraft design projects to keep me busy.

Chris

So I'm wondering just how many hurricane hits these coastal properties need to take before their land value (and taxes) actually go DOWN?

I'm betting they never will because.... people are STUPID. After every hit (as a reader noted in another post where I pointed this out) the influx of relief and insurance monies will further inflate the values. We will keep "rebuilding" where we never should have built in the first place.
I'd suggest insurance companies, politicians and others pick up and READ a little book called WAVES AND BEACHES by Willard Bascom. I know the thought of studying or gaining scientific knowledge sends most of these "suits" running in panic- but it's really very simple. My heart bleeds for these guys who had a hard time with basic math in high school, so they became lawyers.

A little side note.... as I type this GWB is addressing the nation, and he gave emergency phone numbers for FEMA. Did you know the FEMA call centers are 'outsourced?' Last year a call to them generally rang in an answering sweat shop in.... the Virgin Islands- right out there is hurricane alley. LOL

There's an article in Science (free)
http://www.sciencemag.org/cgi/content/full/sci;309/5742/1844

I haven't read it through yet, but it might offer a better point against which to criticize.

It would seem intuitive for me to assume that if hurricanes happen when surface sea water is warm, if the sea water gets that warm more often, there will be more hurricanes. But it might be more complicated.

One of the scarier cycles of nature are the phenomenon of super volcanoes and mass upwelling of magma coating the surface of a planetary object. Not only have we found past evidence of this occuring on our own planet but studies of couthless other objects in our solar system hint that these are periodic forces that resurface the landscape of planetary formation. One of the biggest examples of this happening are on Venus where it appears that every few millions years the planet literally turns itself inside out. I'm certain people have no doubt seen the super volacno episodes on National Geographic channel talking about the evidence that yellow stone park is the center caldera of a super volcano. Here recently there is evidence supporting the fact that Oregon is steadily rising higher above sea level. In other words, drink up and be merry cause one day were all going to die.