Transterrestrial Musings

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I have always been amazed at the pervasive corruption and lack of respect for the rule of law that has long existed in New Orleans and Southern Louisiana since way back when. It does not surprise me that the NOPD cannot maintain order among "the little people" that were left behind.

Years and years of corrupt leaders and corrupt law enforcement have conditioned "the little people" to think that "the powers that be" don't have their best interests in mind. It doesn't surprise me how uncooperative and contentious the stragglers are. Aside from the fact that they are struggling to stay alive.

Posted by Jardinero1 at September 1, 2005 12:32 PM

"Aside from the fact that they are struggling to stay alive."

People struggling to stay alive seeks food and water and transportation. Thieves steal stereos and TVs and walk out of Wal-Mart with a stack of CD's. Subhuman thugs station snipers to prevent forces of law and order from doing their jobs.

Posted by Derek L. at September 1, 2005 12:53 PM

And I've been reading reports of an armed mob preventing a helicopter from landing and evacuating a hospital.

It strikes me that this is one of those situations where we could really use that millimeter wave crowd control device:

http://www.defensetech.org/archives/000697.html and some laser dazzlers too. Suffice it to say all they have right now are bullets...

Finally, I don't know if it's been done yet, but it would be nice to see LAPD send some of their helicopters to help out. They have excellent cameras on those things, and they are probably used to being shot at once in a while.

Posted by Kevin Parkin at September 1, 2005 01:30 PM

In terms of aftermath, what is the difference between this, and a major terrorist attack? Less radioactive fallout?
Since 2001 Sept. billions and billions have been put toward "homeland security".... already on top of the existing FEMA structure-- and yet our government, our society- is TOTALLY unprepared to deal with anything like this.
The money the IRS collects from each of us is predominantly going to pad the pockets of the wealthy. Taking care of the populice is way, way down on the government's priority list.
You are certainly NOT going to see any senators or congressmen.... or wealthy Texas oil families with integral political ties; offer to give up any of their perks to help victims of Katrina. Probably, they will vote themselves yet another pay raise this year.

Posted by Vikane at September 1, 2005 03:17 PM

If the feds don't start showing more competence here I can see this being a big black mark for Bush (regardless of whether it should be.) There seems to have been a stunning lack of planning and execution on the part of FEMA here.

Posted by Paul Dietz at September 1, 2005 03:37 PM

"There seems to have been a stunning lack of planning and execution on the part of FEMA here."

I've been thinking about this. Is the above actually true?

1-Is it true that they have not done planning and and execution?

2-Is it true that they have not done ENOUGH planning and execution?

3-Is this simply a case where the tragedy is so big, that no amount of planning and execution can be immediately successful?

Do we have any reason to believe that it would have been possible to do this significantly better than the authorities are doing? Is there any kind of existence proof that:

1-a supremely competent government response is possible?

2-a supremely competent government response would look any differently?

Posted by Jeff Halloway at September 1, 2005 03:49 PM

While my default regard for the competence of federal agencies is never high, whether under a Bush administration or any other, it would be unfair to lay all the blame on FEMA without considering the incompetence and dithering on the part of the local and state governments. Which doesn't even start to address the legendary historic and endemic corruption in Baton Rouge and the parishes. In that regard (as well as language), Louisiana has always been closer to Haiti than has much of the rest of the nation.

Posted by Rand Simberg at September 1, 2005 03:49 PM

Jeff, I think most folks conceptions on how response to incidents like this is mostly based on watching too many disaster movies.

Posted by Derek L. at September 1, 2005 05:20 PM

I'm not sure those movies are that far from the mark today.

Every time I click on CNN the headline font size grows larger - this time it reads:

GROWING DESPAIR

Relief workers face 'urban warfare'

# Survivors living among corpses
# FEMA head: Working in "conditions of urban warfare"
# Armed gangs attempting rapes, police warn
# Bodies dragged into corners at convention center
# Mississippi death toll rising

------ snip -------

You know I get the impression that whoever worked out the logistics for this operation never really believed that New Orleans would flood, or that people might need water for more than two or three days. Even though they had a day or two before the storm hit to adjust their disaster plans as the situation unfolded, they neglected to provide buses out of there for tourists and those without cars, and for whatever reason they didn't have enough water for the even the Superdome. There is no evident plan to evacuate or resupply the hospitals in the event of flooding either.

This was one of the most expected disasters in the history of the US. People have had years to think about all the scenarios, but the response so far does make you wonder if those who had decades to plan it had limited experience and/or imaginations.

I can only imagine what would have happened if the levys were suddenly overcome by that 20ft storm surge. Perhaps we wouldn't be having the problems we have now... which is about the only positive way I can see the current situation.

Posted by Kevin Parkin at September 1, 2005 07:18 PM

Vikane,

"The money the IRS collects from each of us is predominantly going to pad the pockets of the wealthy."

So does this mean you believe there should be less taxation?

Posted by ken anthony at September 1, 2005 10:02 PM

Well, an MSNBC article (http://msnbc.msn.com/id/9166531/) now affirms affirms Rand's original assertion:

"Experts said one of the major problems with the response effort was an ineffective evacuation that began just 24 hours before the storm hit. Though models for such a storm accurately portrayed the circumstances that arose -- a levee breach, flooding, stagnant water, inaccessible portions of the city and large numbers of people unable to leave -- more than 100,000 people remained when the storm hit."

Elsewhere in the article the head of FEMA aptly demonstrates he has no idea what the word 'prepared' means:

"Michael D. Brown, FEMA's director, offered an emphatic defense of the federal response, saying that his agency prepared for the storm but that the widespread, unexpected flooding kept rescuers out of the city."

In his world, anything FEMA aren't 'prepared' for is defined as 'unexpected', despite the fact that: "models for such a storm accurately portrayed the circumstances that arose -- a levee breach, flooding, stagnant water, inaccessible portions of the city and large numbers of people unable to leave"

But what really makes me angry is this stark demonstration of just how inept the Pentagon's military planners are these days (as if Iraq wasn't enough of a demonstration):

"Lt. Gen. Russel L. Honore, the Army officer in charge of the military task force set up to respond to Katrina, acknowledged yesterday that the vast extent of hurricane damage had caught him and other military planners off guard.

"All last week, we were collaborating on developing options," he said in a briefing to Pentagon reporters. "None of us -- nobody -- was clairvoyant enough to perceive the damage that was going to be brought by this storm.""

What good are planners that can't plan? Why didn't they have options ready for a Cat 3 through to a Cat 5 hurricane? Aren't military planners supposed to plan for the worst, hope for the best? By their admission NOT ONE of their planners observed this basic principle and opened their mind to the possibility that a situation which has been feared for decades and predicted by models would actually occur.

Posted by Kevin Parkin at September 2, 2005 01:00 AM

I'm amused to note the use the word 'unexpected' in sentences in a way that obfuscates *who* didn't expect it. Blame mitigation efforts are going full bore.

While I agree that it would be unfair to lay the blame solely at FEMA's door, the blame that can be laid there is, I think, much more than enough. The federal response to this has been incompetent, especially given the warning they had. Scenarios like this have been discussed for years, but the whole response smells of desperate improvisation and utter confusion.

Posted by Paul Dietz at September 2, 2005 05:41 AM

Quote: "Why didn't they have options ready for a Cat 3 through to a Cat 5 hurricane? Aren't military planners supposed to plan for the worst, hope for the best?"

Possibly because planning for natural disasters in our own country may not be the Pentagon's biggest priority? No excuse for FEMA being surprised by any of this, but don't lay blame where it may not belong.

If the Feds (i.e. Dubya) can be blamed for anything, it's in giving the local governments too much time to get things under control. It was obvious a couple of days ago that they weren't up to the task.

Having said that, a National Guard general on Fox cleared things up pretty well the other day. He said that we can't just dump thousands of troops into the disaster area without a base of operations and logistics support. If we did so, they'd just become part of the problem. And none of that can be done until they've had a chance to survey the actual damage and plan around it.

Posted by Patrick at September 2, 2005 07:56 AM

He said that we can't just dump thousands of troops into the disaster area without a base of operations and logistics support.

Which is why pre-preparing that base and prepositioning supplies was essential. Instead, we had a 'logistics is hard, let's go shopping!' strategy that allowed New Orleans to turn into American Somalia. Utterly incredible.

Posted by Paul Dietz at September 2, 2005 10:01 AM

Patrick: "If the Feds (i.e. Dubya) can be blamed for anything, it's in giving the local governments too much time to get things under control."

The spin doctors on Fox news certainly seem to have the situation (and your opinion) under control. Never mind that "Rep. Charles W. Boustany Jr., (R-La.), said he spent the past 48 hours urging the Bush administration to send help. "I started making calls and trying to impress upon the White House and others that something needed to be done," he said. "The State resources were being overwhelmed, and we needed direct federal assistance, command and control, and security -- all three of which are lacking.""

I think spin is the only thing the muppets in charge of this operation seem to be able to do well. As long as you are only aware of the situation in generalities these people can pull the wool over your eyes and wave their arms in TV soundbites saying generally agreeable things like "we can't just dump thousands of troops into the disaster area without a base of operations and logistics support".

Such statements totally neglect to mention that it was within their power to plan for that logistical supply line to be operational from day 1, to provide large numbers of helicopters from day 1, to requisition some of this nation's _450,000_ school busses into service before and after the disaster etc. etc.

The federal government as a whole had the manpower and equipment to prevent most of the situation we are now seeing and still has time to save many, many lives with it. Does it matter what the name of the agency is? The federal goverment has at its fingertips military communications, police helicopters with infrared systems to find survivors, military helicopters, as many busses as needed, and the manpower for a fuel, food and water supply line. The only thing it apparently cannot muster is a leader -- any leader -- competent, charismatic and forceful enough to bring it all together.

Posted by Kevin Parkin at September 2, 2005 10:32 AM

And just to underscore my previous point, here are some extracts from a CNN article:

http://www.cnn.com/2005/US/09/02/katrina.nagin/index.html

"Homeland Security Secretary Michael Chertoff said Thursday that he thinks the Federal Emergency Management Agency and other federal agencies have done a "magnificent job""

And in contrast...

"In the radio interview, Nagin's frustration was palpable.

"I've been out there man. I flew in these helicopters, been in the crowds talking to people crying, don't know where their relatives are. I've done it all man, and I'll tell you man, I keep hearing that it's coming. This is coming, that is coming. And my answer to that today is BS, where is the beef? Because there is no beef in this city. "

Nagin said, "Get every Greyhound bus in the country and get them moving."

Nagin called for a moratorium on press conferences "until the resources are in this city."

"They're feeding the people a line of bull, and they are spinning and people are dying," he said."

Posted by Kevin Parkin at September 2, 2005 10:48 AM

If you don't read anything else in this thread, paste this hyperlink into your browser:

http://www.cnn.com/2005/US/09/02/katrina.nagin/index.html

and then click the first hyperlink: (Hear the mayor vent his frustration in this video -- 12:09.)

This is an historic and tragic interview, one that I will never forget.

Posted by Kevin Parkin at September 2, 2005 11:09 AM

Mayor Nagin, Mayor Nagin...hmmmm...let me remember...

Oh, yeah. Isn't he the guy that spent a couple days last weekend talking to lawyers trying to decide whether or not he had the legal authority to evacuate his city when a Cat 5 hurricane was clearly bearing down on it?

There is plenty of blame to go around here.

Posted by Rand Simberg at September 2, 2005 11:25 AM

"The spin doctors on Fox news certainly seem to have the situation (and your opinion) under control."

Nice turn of phrase, admittedly made easy by quoting someone on Fox. That's what I get for giving credit where it's due. You must be one of those smarter people who watch CNN...

I happen to agree with the guy in question for my own reasons. It makes no sense to set up a field command post & logistics base in the face of an enormous hurricane, not knowing exactly where its path will be and where will be the most need (over a 3 state area). A pre-positioned base is a nice idea but does no good if it's been blown away too.

Disaster response, contrary to popular opinion, is NOT the military's number one responsibility. They have to allocate assets based on need, and the need isn't clear until the storm's over.

Thus, please refer to my prior criticism of FEMA. I don't blame the Pentagon for not being adequately prepared, but FEMA certainly could've filled their clue bag faster. If you want to extend that up the chain of command to W., be my guest. It's ultimately his responsibility.

And I'm done posting to blogs just to get in a spitting match with people I don't know. Take your shots, folks, I'm out.

Posted by Patrick at September 2, 2005 11:31 AM

Rand, you're absolutely right:

http://www.nola.com/news/t-p/frontpage/index.ssf?/base/news-4/1125213007249320.xml

That mistake is now made. Nobody can change that. What we can do is understand what is going wrong with the current situation and push hard to get it fixed.

Nagin was venting about the current situation and I have no reason to disbelieve what was said in that interview. Do you?

Posted by Kevin Parkin at September 2, 2005 11:39 AM

The FEMA director says that this was unexpected?

This is from the Washington Post in September 2004. LAST YEAR.

"I don't mean to be an alarmist, but the doomsday scenario is going to happen eventually," Stone said. "I'll stake my professional reputation on it."

"The underlying problem, Maestri said, is that the city never should have been built in the first place. It is a terrific location for business but a lousy location for safety."

"The Chamber of Commerce gets really mad at me when I say this, but does New Orleans get rebuilt?" Maestri asked. The answer, he said, could very well be no."

"Awaiting Ivan in the Big Uneasy; New Orleans Girds For Major Damage"

BYLINE: Michael Grunwald and Manuel Roig-Franzia, Washington Post Staff Writers

DATELINE: NEW ORLEANS Sept. 14

-- Walter Maestri, an emergency manager here in America's most vulnerable metropolitan area, has 10,000 body bags ready in case a major hurricane ever hits New Orleans.

As Hurricane Ivan's expected path shifted uncomfortably close to this low-lying urban soup bowl Tuesday, Maestri said he might need a lot more.

If a strong Category 4 storm such as Ivan made a direct hit, he warned, 50,000 people could drown, and this city of Mardi Gras and jazz could cease to exist.

"This could be The One," Maestri said in an interview in his underground bunker. "You're talking about the potential loss of a major metropolitan area."

New Orleans is often described as a disaster waiting to happen -- it is mostly below sea level, practically surrounded by water, artificially kept dry by pumps and levees, rapidly losing its natural storm protection. But rarely have its leaders sounded so a fraid that the wait could be over soon.

Most scientists, engineers and emergency managers agree that if Ivan does spare southern Louisiana this time, The One is destined to arrive someday.

The director of the U.S. Geological Survey has warned that New Orleans is on a path to extinction.

Gregory W. Stone, director of the Coastal Studies Institute at Louisiana State University, frets that near misses such as Hurricane Georges -- a Category 2 storm that swerved away from New Orleans a day before landfall in 1998 -- only give residents a false sense of security. The Red Cross has rated a hurricane inundating New Orleans as America's deadliest potential natural disaster -- worse than a California earthquake.

"I don't mean to be an alarmist, but the doomsday scenario is going to happen eventually," Stone said. "I'll stake my professional reputation on it."

The main problem with southern Louisiana is that it is dangerously low, and getting lower. The levees that imprisoned the Mississippi River into its shipping channel and helped make New Orleans one of the world's busiest ports have also prevented the muddy river from spreading sediment around its delta.

As a result, southern Louisiana is sinking into the Gulf, losing about 24 square miles of coastal marshes and barrier islands every year. Those marshes and islands used to help slow storms as they approached New Orleans; computer simulations now predict that the loss of these natural storm barriers will increase storm surges and waves by several feet.

On a seaplane tour of the region Tuesday, Gerald M. Duszynski, assistant secretary of the Louisiana Department of Natural Resources, pointed out an area near the tiny bayou town of Leesville, where he fished for redfish and flounder 25 years ago.

Once a solid patch of green tidal marsh, it is now mostly open water, with a few strips and splotches of green.

Louisiana's politicians, environmentalists and business leaders have been pushing for a $14 billion coastal restoration project to try to bring back those lost marshes and islands -- in order to help protect New Orleans as well as an oil and gas industry that handles nearly a third of the nation's supply.

The Bush administration forced the state to scale down its request to $1.2 billion last year, and a Senate committee authorized $375 million. But Mark Davis, executive director of the Coalition to Restore Coastal Louisiana, believes that even if Ivan bypasses the region, its scary approach could help galvanize support for a more comprehensive fix.

"We're running out of tomorrows," Davis said. "God willing, if there's still a southern Louisiana next week, I'm not talking about the politics of the possible anymore. It's now a question of which side are you on: Do you support the obliteration of a region, or do you want to try to save it?"

On Tuesday, though, most local officials were thinking more about the potential danger than the potential opportunity. If Ivan does pound New Orleans, tidal surges could leave the city underwater for months, since its pumps can remove only about an inch every hour, creating a "toxic soup" of chemicals, rodents, poisons and snakes.

The local officials said they could not order a mandatory evacuation in a city as poor as New Orleans, in which more than 100,000 residents have no cars, but they urged people to find some way to escape. "If you want to take a chance, buy a lottery ticket," said Jefferson Parish President Aaron Broussard. "Don't take a chance on this hurricane."

New Orleans Mayor C. Ray Nagin seemed flustered as he pleaded with his constituents to flee, at one point suggesting that they take shelter in area hospitals. Visitors were also urged to find somewhere else to go -- including 10,000 conventioneers in town for the annual meeting of the National Safety Council.

"This is not a drill," Nagin said. "This is the real deal."

But the logistics of exit are quite formidable in the Big Easy. In 1998, as more than 300,000 people fled Hurricane Georges, Interstate 10 turned into a parking lot. Similar miles-long snarls unfolded Tuesday. Flights were cancelled and the
airport prepared to close. The town that gave the world "A Streetcar Named Desire" idled its streetcars.

The underlying problem, Maestri said, is that the city never should have been built in the first place. It is a terrific location for business but a lousy location for safety.

"The Chamber of Commerce gets really mad at me when I say this, but does New Orleans get rebuilt?" Maestri asked. The answer, he said, could very well be no.

Posted by Jeff Halloway at September 2, 2005 11:55 AM

Well, it helps that New Orleans was basically a third world city before Katrina, kept afloat by its location within the United States. Perhaps there are a few other places in the US that would degenerate as fast, but the vast majority would not.

Posted by J R American at September 2, 2005 06:58 PM

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