Transterrestrial Musings

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Don't mean to derail you thread Sam but if this link is true, the combat experience we gained in Afghanistan and Iraq will be priceless. I also found this speech on another site as well.

http://english.epochtimes.com/news/5-8-8/31055.html

"Would the United States allow us to go out to gain new living space? First, if the United States is firm in blocking us, it is hard for us to do anything significant to Taiwan and some other countries! Second, even if we could snatch some land from Taiwan, Vietnam, India, or even Japan, how much more living space can we get? Very trivial! Only countries like the United States, Canada and Australia have the vast land to serve our need for mass colonization.

Therefore, solving the “issue of America” is the key to solving all other issues. First, this makes it possible for us to have many people migrate there and even establish another China under the same leadership of the CCP. America was originally discovered by the ancestors of the yellow race, but Columbus gave credit to the white race. We the descendents of the Chinese nation are entitled to the possession of the land! It is said that the residents of the yellow race have a very low social status in United States. We need to liberate them. Second, after solving the “issue of America,” the western countries in Europe would bow to us, not to mention to Taiwan, Japan and other small countries. Therefore, solving the “issue of America” is the mission assigned to CCP members by history."

Posted by Mike Puckett at August 20, 2005 06:32 PM

Hey Sam,

Great post, and very interesting to hear the specifics laid out like that. How about we throw $50 billion at renewable energy fist though, so we can give fubar countries like Iran a big wedgie, leaving them standing forlorn in the sand wondering what to do with their 'black gold'.

Then I'll have you and Rand over for drinks at my sweet pad in Mare Tranquillitatis.

Posted by benji farquhar at August 20, 2005 08:11 PM

Re: Net present value

The natural interest rate is usually positive, except when it sharply negative. Imagine a basket of 50 year industrial bonds purchased in 1910. One third in America, one third in Russia and one third in Germany. You could say two thirds of your investment was at unaceptable risk later, but which would you avoid beforehand?

Investment in Mars would allow us to invest diversly, so there is an extra bonus to be calculated on Martian development bonds, the option they give you to avoid unknown future problems on Earth.

Posted by Norden at August 20, 2005 08:36 PM

Mike Puckett,

Who ever gave that speech was a nutjob. How are they going to transport these large numbers of people accross the ocean? How are they going to deal with those Chinese who have assimilated into America, and hold no loyalty to China? And most importantly, how in gods name are they going to deal with all of the gun owners in this country?

Posted by Rob at August 21, 2005 06:05 AM

There is a school of thought that says Iraq was invaded to prevent other countries from choosing the outcome of a US election by manipulating the oil price (the "oil weapon"). By controlling one of the world's major oil producing countries, the oil weapon could not be used around election time by Iran, for example.

That school of thought goes on to say that Iraq was erroneously chosen as the oil resource to control based on false, but highly convincing intelligence fed to the US by Allawi. Allawi evidently wanted to become the next ruler of Iraq, and he fabricated intelligence suggesting that Iraq would easily fall under US occupation with little opposition. By feeding this information both directly to the US and via Allawi's contacts in Iran, who circulated similar (and also false) reports via Germany, the appearance of independent corroborating intelligence was created.

Now, if this war really was about oil, in one way or another, then it seems to me that we have self inflicted a great deal of economic damage to ourselves -- in the process fulfilling the stated aim of our enemy in the (previously) unrelated War on Terror.

Furthermore, we will relatively soon have spent a trillion dollars to control an energy resource that could have been rendered irrelevant by a Manhattan-style fusion energy project for one to two orders of magnitude less money (or perhaps the direct cost of 1-3 months of mililtary operations) and on a similar timescale to the present conflict.

But as Clinton would no doubt point out we can't change the past, so there is no use arguing about it. All that remains is to shape the future.

There is no pulling out of Iraq now, as even Clinton says. But there remains the problem of controlling energy supplies, which I understand figures strongly in the wargames both of the US and other countries. Anyone who has played Dune 2000 (http://dune2k.com/?page=strategy-dune2000&show=shiroko&layout=simple) knows only too well what a diminishing primary resource does to precipitate and intens`ify conflict.

There were two options missing from Dune 2000: One was to colonize another planet and ship in resources, the other was to invest in energy research (an option that was available in Outpost, if anybody remembers that: http://www.ibiblio.org/GameBytes/issue18/flooks/outpost.html). In the real world, we have both of these options and they are dirt cheap in comparison to the alternatives. For the sake of our economy and future military needs, we should seriously consider exercising them.

Posted by Kevin Parkin at August 21, 2005 06:13 AM

Another thing:

How on Earth are they going to deal with the 10,000+ nuclear weapons that will rain down on them?

This is nothing more then one lunatic whose getting a hard on through some saber rattling, nothing more. The Chinese maybe communist, but they're not stupid islamofascists. They value their lives. They don't want to give up their rising standard of living by going to war with the last super power that can wipe them out in an instant.

Posted by Rob at August 21, 2005 06:23 AM

"Who ever gave that speech was a nutjob. How are they going to transport these large numbers of people accross the ocean? How are they going to deal with those Chinese who have assimilated into America, and hold no loyalty to China? And most importantly, how in gods name are they going to deal with all of the gun owners in this country?"

Well, if you read the link, it explains how they think they can pull it off and it addresses your points. That speech goes well beyound saber rattling. It would behoove us to discover if it was authentic. Based on evidence I have read, I tend to lean slightly toward the side of believing it. Read the whole thing.

Posted by Mike Puckett at August 21, 2005 07:10 AM

Shouldn't we hold off on trying to colonize until we figure out whether or not a colony is sustainable? Is it possible to get pregnant in low-g, and if so, would the baby develop correctly? That's an extremely important question. Before you start throwing hundreds of billions of dollars at creating a colony on the moon or Mars you need to find out if it will have to import every single one of its colonists, through the colony's entire life. If it does have to do so, then it will end up being nothing more than a trillion dollar Roanoke.

Posted by Paul Druce at August 21, 2005 08:11 AM

Alright, Mike Puckett, against my better judgment, I read the whole thing. Here’s my take on this collection of ramblings by this obvious lunatic. I've quoted directly from the line you posted.

“As everybody knows, according to the views propagated by the Western scholars, humanity as a whole originated from one single mother in Africa. Therefore, no race can claim racial superiority. However, according to the research conducted by most Chinese scholars, the Chinese are different from other races on earth. We did not originate in Africa. Instead, we originated independently in the land of China.”

This is making my BS-alarms light up like bloody Christmas tree! I’ve also come to the conclusion that this guy is a racist asshole!

I hate to break it to this guy, but the Chinese did not develop separately. They are perfectly capable of breeding with people of European, African or any other ethnic or racial group, and producing fertile offspring. This is proven by the countless inter-racial people that live in the developed world.

The Chinese also came to China from Africa, this support by ample archeological evidence. I’d also like to see this research done by these Chinese scholars. I’m sure its nothing compared to our accepted, peer-reviewed opinions that have mountains of evidence to support them. Please see for more details: http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/History_of_China#Prehistoric_times

Next this guy goes into how the Nazis and the Japanese tried and failed to take over the world. This guy must get a hard on from past glories that he wishes to emulate. He also goes on more racists rants that seem to do nothing more then reveal the horrible sick communist party indoctrinating this guy has gone through his whole life. Take these little gems for example:

“Our Chinese people are wiser than the Germans because, fundamentally, our race is superior to theirs.”

“That is why the Chinese race has been able to prosper for so long. We are destined “not to be buried by either heaven or earth” no matter how severe the natural, man-made, and national disasters. This is our advantage.”

This guy continues on in his little make-believe world when he says:

“The bottom line is, only China, not Germany, is a reliable force in resisting the Western parliament-based democratic system.”

Unfortunately for this guy, the “Western parliament-based democratic system” is the only system that works best for the most people. Thousands of years of human history experimenting with different forms of governments ranging from anarchy to feudalism, to totalitarianism, along with countless pointless deaths have shown this to be true. China must become more democratic if it is to survive in the 21st century.

This man also demonstrates the Chinese communist party’s desire for religious freedoms when he says:

“Maybe you have now come to understand why we recently decided to further promulgate atheism. If we let theology from the West into China and empty us from the inside, if we let all Chinese people listen to God and follow God, who will obediently listen to us and follow us? If the common people don’t believe Comrade Hu Jintao is a qualified leader, question his authority, and want to monitor him, if the religious followers in our society question why we are leading God in churches, can our Party continue to rule China?”

This guy is making this too easy. This is just another example of how China needs to reform itself before it can move out and “colonize the world”. Other nations have accepted that people can hold different belief systems from one another and those nations have prospered, China has yet to catch up, and if this man is taken seriously, then China won’t catch up for many years.

This little bigoted racist then admits that China has serious problems with its environment. The current conditions in China make 19th century London look like a Green Peace Rally that’s gone too far.

This guy then goes on to show us again just how little he can think for himself, and how much indoctrination he has received from his master’s in the party:

“Everyone knows that without the leadership of our Party, China would not exist today. Therefore, our highest principle is to forever protect our Party’s leadership position.”

“We’d rather have the whole world, or even the entire globe, share life and death with us than step down from the stage of history!!! Isn’t there a ‘nuclear bondage’ theory? It means that since nuclear weapons have bound the security of the entire world, all will die together if death is inevitable. In my view, there is another kind of bondage, and that is, the fate our Party is tied up with that of the whole world. If we, the CCP, are finished, China will be finished, and the world will be finished.”

This man is a suicidal racist lunatic. He is totally devoted to the communist part, and is unable to detach himself from it.

“America was originally discovered by the ancestors of the yellow race, but Columbus gave credit to the white race.” This guy offers no proof for this obvious racist assertion.

“It is said that the residents of the yellow race have a very low social status in United States.” This guy obviously hasn’t been to any advanced high school math classrooms, which are made up of about 90% Asian nor has he seen the engineering programs, nor the medical, nor any other form of higher level education.

“In the long run, the relationship of China and the United States is one of a life-and-death struggle.” This is just more of his ranting and ravings.

“From a humanitarian perspective, we should issue a warning to the American people and persuade them to leave America and leave the land they have lived in to the Chinese people. Or at least they should leave half of the United States to be China’s colony, because America was first discovered by the Chinese.”

Over my dead body! This little racist has now gone into delusions of grandeur.

“We must prepare ourselves for two scenarios. If our biological weapons succeed in the surprise attack [on the United States], the Chinese people will be able to keep their losses at a minimum in the fight against the United States. If, however, the attack fails and triggers a nuclear retaliation from the United States, China would perhaps suffer a catastrophe in which more than half of its population would perish. That is why we need to be ready with air defense systems for our big and medium-sized cities. Whatever the case may be, we can only move forward fearlessly for the sake of our Party and state and our nation’s future, regardless of the hardships we have to face and the sacrifices we have to make. The population, even if more than half dies, can be reproduced. But if the Party falls, everything is gone, and forever gone!”

This guy has gone off the deep end! If the Chinese government is stupid enough to follow this guy’s advice on launching a biological attack on the USA, then there will be NO China left, we’ll need to hand out 1.3 Billion Darwin Awards.

“Therefore in recent years, we have been conducting research on genetic weapons, i.e. those weapons that do not kill yellow people.”

This man is a LUNATIC, and a RACIST! What about those people who have one Chinese parent, and a non-Chinese parent? Does “yellow people” include Koreans, Vietnamese, or Japanese?

“Of the research done on genetic weapons throughout the world, the Israeli’s is the most advanced. Their genetic weapons are designed to target Arabs and protect the Israelis. But even they have not reached the stage of actual deployment.”

Now we’ve moved into borderline anti-Semitism, how wonderful! Are the Protocols of Zion next?

“It is indeed brutal to kill one or two hundred million Americans. But that is the only path that will secure a Chinese century, a century in which the CCP leads the world. We, as revolutionary humanitarians, do not want deaths. But if history confronts us with a choice between deaths of Chinese and those of Americans, we’d have to pick the latter, as, for us, it is more important to safeguard the lives of the Chinese people and the life of our Party. That is because, after all, we are Chinese and members of the CCP. Since the day we joined the CCP, the Party’s life has always been above all else! History will prove that we made the right choice.”

Can anyone say: B-R-A-I-N-W-A-S-H-E-D?

“Since the enemies are secretly planning to eliminate our population, we certainly cannot be infinitely merciful and compassionate to them. Comrade He Xin's article came out at the right time, it has proven the correctness of our tit for tat battle approach, has proven Comrade Deng Xiaoping’s great foresight to deploy against the United States military strategy.”

Let’s add paranoia to the mix as well.

My belief's are that the man who gave this speech is a lunatic and a racist. This statement stands on the evidence that I have quoted directly from the source.

There is no way this racist’s delusions will ever become a reality. This man presents no evidence on how they are going to transport large numbers of people along with their needed support infrastructure without having the rest of the world raise up their arms and complain.

China’s economy is booming right now. Countries and companies from all over the world are going to China to get their manufactured goods. If China took the route that this man was proposing, then their economy would collapse. This is something that the Chinese government realizes and understands that they need to avoid going down that road.

I see no reason to fear this lunatic’s ideas. China still has major problems that they must deal with before any major war can be waged; these include a disproportionate male to female ratio, rampant government corruption, out of control pollution, and a growing AIDS epidemic. This man’s fantasies are nothing to fear and should be ignored as the pointless saber rattling that it is.

Posted by Rob at August 21, 2005 09:41 AM

"My belief's are that the man who gave this speech is a lunatic and a racist. This statement stands on the evidence that I have quoted directly from the source."

Rob, that Man is the Chinese Defense Minister, their Donald Rumsfield.

Still, I am not going to crap up Sams's thread anymore with this topic. I simply found the whole speech represhesible and thought it worthy of some sunshine. I hope to God this isn't real but if it is, it needs attention. If it is a hoax, it is a damn good one.

Posted by Mike Puckett at August 21, 2005 10:07 AM

"Shouldn't we hold off on trying to colonize until we figure out whether or not a colony is sustainable? Is it possible to get pregnant in low-g, and if so, would the baby develop correctly?"

No, people can spend nine months on a 1G carnival ride to reproduce if worse comes to worse. If we are going to subject people to bone loss at 1/6 g, they might as well be doing something constructive instead of paying the health price with no short term benefit. Like colonizing the Moon.

"How about we throw $50 billion at renewable energy fist though, so we can give fubar countries like Iran a big wedgie, leaving them standing forlorn in the sand wondering what to do with their 'black gold'."

You pick your cause, I'll pick mine. The whole point of going to the Moon in contrast to Iraq is that no one's thumb needs to go in anybody's eye.

Posted by Sam Dinkin at August 21, 2005 12:03 PM

A baby developing in the womb is effectively in a zero-gee environment (buoyancy).

Posted by Ed Minchau at August 21, 2005 12:11 PM

I think people don't realize how easy it is to simulate gravity in space.

For example with the CEV, just launch two of them, tether together with a ~ 50 meter rope, and spin up with maneuvering thrusters. Or launch 1 CEV and dock with a counter-weight.

You could do something similar on the Lunar surface if desired.

Kind of makes me think they should reduce the CEV crew size to 3 and launch two at once. Hey presto, then they fit on an EELV!

Posted by Kevin Parkin at August 21, 2005 01:45 PM

I think people don't realize how easy it is to simulate gravity in space.

Yes, much easier (in fact much more possible) than the reverse (simulating weightlessness) on earth.

Posted by Rand Simberg at August 21, 2005 04:15 PM

Mike, there's another possibility here. This may be a disinformation ploy. We're not told where this speech supposedly happened. And he starts with the paragraph:

I?m very excited today, because the large-scale on-line [dash added to pass spam filter] survey sina.com that was done for us showed that our next generation is quite promising and our Party?s cause will be carried on. In answering the question, ?Will you shoot at women, children and prisoners of war,? more than 80 percent of the respondents answered in the affirmative, exceeding by far our expectations [1].

The footnote incidentally refers to a webpage with the hypothetical poll which supposedly in turn was instigated by the speaker, neither which can be confirmed. Ie, even if it turns out there was such a poll doesn't mean that the poll was commisioned by the Chinese government nor that Chi Haotian had any knowledge of it.

This also seems an odd and indelicate way for a politician or a bureaucrat to start a controversial speech. My take is that it's anti-China propaganda issued by Taiwanese or perhaps US intelligence.

Posted by Karl Hallowell at August 21, 2005 09:45 PM

Sam,

I was neither trying to take sides nor advocate war.

But surely nanoscale technology and molecular manufacturing research should develop in concert with our space program. Self replicating nanofabricators could come in quite handy while colonizing space, just the place for their limitless potential. 25 years and bye-bye oil, we'll need a new plan.

Kevin Parkin said:

"In the real world, we have both of these options (colonizing another planet and investing in energy research) and they are dirt cheap in comparison to the alternatives. For the sake of our economy and future military needs, we should seriously consider exercising them."

The following is from The Center For Responsible Nanotechnology http://crnano.typepad.com/crnblog/

"Exponential general-purpose molecular manufacturing means a manufacturing system capable of making a wide range of technologically advanced products, far superior to what we have today, much cheaper, much faster, and able to multiply its own source of production exponentially."

"Molecular manufacturing is an attempt to build mechanical chemical manufacturing systems that join molecules together (like enzymes or catalysts) under the control of computers (like robots). Proponents assert that this can be a very powerful and worthwhile technology, making products with futuristic performance at a production cost near zero."

I'm actually quite surprised at the paucity of both discussion and alarmism with regards to the policy concerns this technology raises. I understand that only very simple nanostructures have actually been built, but the potential ramifications are tough to grasp. I wonder how heavily it will figure in '08.

BTW, since when does a life = $1 million?

Posted by at August 22, 2005 12:01 AM

The anonymous commenter raises a good point: Self-replic`ating molecular manufacturing could emerge in the not-too-distant future, and it has serious military implications - imagine reducing an opposing army to goo. Now imagine accidentally losing control of that same technology.

This is where the Moon comes in: It is a safe place to develop, test and undertake molecular manufacturing. If anything goes wrong, there are thousands of miles of vaccuum between that bioshpere and our own.

Posted by Kevin Parkin at August 22, 2005 07:59 AM

"BTW, since when does a life = $1 million?"

People tend to treat their own lives worth $7 million in the US. http://www.thespacereview.com/article/328/1. If you have one million die and their lives are worth one million dollars each, voila a trillion dollar war. Back in 1945, human life was less expensive due to inflation, less risk aversion and so on. Similarly in non-US countries especially with high infant mortality, disease or war, the value of human life is much closer to the NPV of earnings which is lower.

"But surely nanoscale technology and molecular manufacturing research should develop in concert with our space program."

You champion your cause, I'll champion mine. Colonization can take place with no research, only development of what we know now. I am not waiting years for nanobots to make me rich and effective. The world is rich and effective already. $55 billion/year is 0.1% of the world economy.

"Self-replic`ating molecular manufacturing could emerge in the not-too-distant future, and it has serious military implications - imagine reducing an opposing army to goo. Now imagine accidentally losing control of that same technology."

We already have lots of ways to turn our enemies into red or black goo. Perhaps we should consider a positive future of building stuff people want to buy like tourist accommodations, a sports arena for trampoline or a science fiction movie set.

Posted by Sam Dinkin at August 22, 2005 08:16 AM

Probably won't show. Nanotech isn't moving that fast. I suspect at least in the US globalization and associated issues (immigration, protectionism, etc) will be higher profile. Iraq will probably dominate unless they somehow can clean it up by then.

Posted by Karl Hallowell at August 22, 2005 08:31 AM

Karl,

"Nanotech isn't moving that fast."

It just sped up. This is being described as the biggest scientific breakthrough in a decade:

(http://www.nature.com/news/2005/050815/full/050815-8.html)

"Rarely is a processing advance so elegantly simple that rapid commercialization seems possible," says Ray Baughman, a chemist from the University of Texas at Dallas, whose team unveils the ribbon in this week's Science."

I think if we don't hear much about it from our politicians it will be by design for reasons of secrecy.

Kevin,

Ah, the dreaded 'goo'. I really do believe that it represents some sort of reckoning for this race. The fantastic but logical conclusion of nanofabricators is that everybody gets one. A delicate balance between infinite potential and cold infinity.
It's good for the bones to read guys like Kurzweil discuss "the panoply of existential risks".

Conversely, it represents an end to material poverty.

Sam,

I read your article on the Shuttle. Your association of dollar amounts to human life reads like comedy to me. Good comedy.

I believe nanotech will revolutionize not only the space industry but also our perceptions of energy, agriculture, ecology, medicine, robotics, computers, avionics, etc. It will pave the way to interplanetary colonization.

Posted by benji farquhar at August 22, 2005 11:42 PM

It is painfully obvious what China is trying to do. Their model is XIXth century Japan, their strategy is the same. Parallel self-reinforcing economic and military development.

For now they have relatively open access to markets both for selling and, most important of all, buying products. But if in a decade or two, once they have their military machine tooled up, oil runs out to a trickle, as it is supposed to, they are not going to let someone else monopolize it. They are planning to use their military as an economic tool, like the superpowers of the XIXth century.

They are building a blue water navy to enable them to control vital choke points to international trade, including Arab oil which has to pass by the strait of Malacca. They do not intend to allow the US to impose an embargo on them.

Posted by Gojira at August 23, 2005 04:52 AM

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