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« "The Wolves Howl Along The Way" | Main | So When Do We Get To See Them? »

The EMP Threat

Here's something that we're not worried about enough. At least not enough to actually be doing what we need to do about it.

[Update at 10:45 AM EDT]

A commenter asks if Scuds could reach Kansas City from outside US territorial waters. I suspect that a North Korean No Dong (range of about a thousand miles) might be able to come close to it from the Gulf of Mexico.

Posted by Rand Simberg at June 07, 2005 06:26 AM
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Comments

Rand,

Iran and Korea use Scud missiles of various kinds. In your professional opinion were they to launch one from a container ship just outside our territorial waters, would that missile have sufficient power to position a nuke 30-150 miles over Kansas City?

I've never seen any articles actual state that it was technically feasible, and since you are in the business, I wondered what you thought.

Posted by zztop at June 7, 2005 07:43 AM

I'll let you know that at least in the healthcare sector, this is being addressed. Just had a conversation with a client who is buidling a new data center which will be built to withstand an EMP pulse. Their goal is seven 9's uptime per year, and with the investment they are putting into the data center and it's backup; it should be easy to meet.

Posted by Brian at June 7, 2005 08:08 AM

If it's not backed up you really aren't safe. So let's have a National Backup Week. We already have a hundred National (fill in the blank) Weeks. Lets have one that actually has some purpose other than feel goodism. We're almost all long overdue in spending some quality time with our data. I know I can replace all my hardware (with better hardware) for less than a grand. But your stuff may be irreplaceable if you haven’t been keeping up with it. I’d like to see the national early warning system add shutdown your systems to its warnings. If it’s not powered up there’s far less risk.

Posted by JJS at June 7, 2005 08:17 AM

While a high altitude burst over the center of the country would cause the maximum damage, it's a bit harder to pull off due to the ranges involved. However, a sea-launched Scud type missile (ranges from 200-450 miles depending on the version and size of warhead) could do a lot of damage to our economy or infrastructure if set to detonate about 100 miles over places like California and New York. You don't have to cause maximum possible damage to inflict a lot of pain. California's economy alone is greater than all but a dozen or so countries.

Posted by Larry J at June 7, 2005 08:18 AM

Larry, I'm not a rocket guy, but I didn't think a scud could go that far or high into the midwest. I was thinking more along your lines of blacking out the east coast. While it wouldn't put shut down the whole infrastructure, it would destroy the financial, political and possibly military command and control.

Posted by at June 7, 2005 08:38 AM

My understanding of EMP damage is that it depends mainly upon the total length of the conductors that the pulsed magnetic field crosses. The longer the "antenna," the greater the damaging "signal." A 600-mile transmission line sucks a lot more energy out of the pulse than does a 6-foot appliance cord, considered in isolation. The problem, of course, is that said cord is fed by a tributary of that long line, so it, and everything else attached in any way to that line, shares the big zap.

EMP filters for power and communication lines (telephone, cable TV) are available. Perhaps a tax credit would encourage their installation by both business and residential power and commo customers.

Posted by Dick Eagleson at June 7, 2005 01:16 PM

IT looks like they think they can launch satellites

NKSL

So a small EMP FOBS system might be tempting.

Posted by Norden at June 7, 2005 05:56 PM

For those interested in who has what and approximate max ranges, check out:

http://www.armscontrol.org/factsheets/missiles.asp

It's a little bit old, but other than the Iraq listing, should about reflect the state of things. SpaceDaily had mention recently of Iranian development of a solid fueled booster...

- Eric.

Posted by Eric S. at June 7, 2005 07:01 PM

The bigger issue is not backing up data or protecting equipment, but how long will it take to repair the power grid and all the related municipal services connected to it such as water and sewer pumping & treatment. Not to mention telco and all the data that is moved on it.

Even if you adequately protect and backup, you are out of business without a longterm source of power or ability to move data.

Even if only the eastern seaboard gets zapped. There are not enough parts in warehouses to fix it all. It likely would take years to fully restore.

Posted by zztop at June 7, 2005 08:36 PM

zz's comment is right on- and brings to mind a few recollections from my sordid past.....
From the mid-'70's to mid-'80's I was involved in the design of a number of EOC's (Emergency Operations Centers)for local (County and Municipal) governments. Through this time the old federal Civil Defense Dept. was evolving into the Department of Emergency Preparedness- ultimately to morph into FEMA as we know it today. Still, various aspects of EOC construction- including EMP protection- were eligible for Federal matching funds. At this point in time, "911" emergency dispatch services were coming on line and most local governments incorporated these functions into their EOC's so that they did not have a comm center sitting idle waiting for a war or hurricane. I always argued in favor of EMP protection- especially because the associated screening, equipment grounding and RF transmission line isolation made the facility much less susceptable to lightning damage- a very real, almost daily threat in Florida. But it was a tough sell to local politicians. Even with the Feds picking up half the costs, they saw EMP hardening as a 'waste of money sitting around waiting for the Russians' and invariably voted against it.
Sad- because it's not something that can easily (maybe not even possibly) be retrofitted.

Posted by SpaceCat at June 8, 2005 11:44 PM

The article states...

"Given that a catastrophic EMP attack can be mounted only by putting a nuclear weapon into space over the United States and that, as a practical matter, this can only be done via a ballistic missile, it is imperative that the United States deploy as quickly as possible a comprehensive defense against such delivery systems."

Which seems to ignore the possibility of bomb hitching a ride on an orbital flight.

I'd expect the bad guys to launch from ships near both east and west coasts simultaneously. The only question remaining is how long it will take for them to put such an operation in play?

Posted by ken anthony at June 9, 2005 10:22 PM


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