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Unfounded Assumptions Hugh Hewitt writes, about the recent school shooting incident in northern Minnesota: ...[the] MSM is not distinguishing itself in this instance, and will again move past this terrible story without ever asking what has happened to youth culture in America that it turns out such killers. Hugh is making a couple assumptions here for which he provides no basis. First, that these types of incidents are more prevalent today than they've been at various times in the past and, second, that they're caused by something in "youth culture." Both may be true, but I'm not aware of any evidence for either. Does he have any data to indicate that mass shootings by young people are at some kind of all-time high, on a per capita basis, or are we just more aware of them, because of modern communications technology? If so, does he have any data to indicate that it's caused by "youth culture," as opposed to (for example) increases in psychoses due to environmental factors (e.g. Ritalin, or non-prescribed drugs), or increased availability of rapid-fire weaponry? It's not like this is a unique period in American history, after all. Remember Billy the Kid? And if this didn't happen in the early nineteenth century, it wasn't so much because it was discouraged by "youth culture" (to the limited degree that such a thing existed) so much as the fact that muzzle-loading muskets weren't very handy tools for shooting and killing many people in a short period of time. It would actually be interesting to see how gang murder rates compare with, say, the range wars of the old west (which both have a lot of young shooters involved). I'm not proposing gun control as a solution to this problem--Kliebold's and Harris' guns were "controlled" (which is to say illegal), after all. My point is that it's very easy to simply say "O tempora, O mores!" when something like this happens, when the reality is that in a population of three hundred million people, sometimes a few of them out on the tail end of the bell curve are going to go nuts, pick up a gun, and shoot some folks. Short of a draconian reining in of our freedoms, there's probably some irreduceable amount of this thing that we'll have to accept. I'm in fact surprised that it happens as seldom as it does. In my opinion, the solution is likely to not be fewer guns, or "gun-free zones" (which are basically the equivalent of a sign saying "Welcome, mass murderers! Unarmed victims in abundance here!") but more guns, in the hands of trained teachers and other school authorities, to end such incidents as quickly as possible with a minimum loss of life. What concerns me is the future, as technology evolves, and some demented kid gets a hold of something really nasty, that can create a great deal more havoc in an even shorter amount of time. Posted by Rand Simberg at March 23, 2005 08:23 AMTrackBack URL for this entry:
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Did you mean to say muzzle loading muskets instead of breech loading muskets? Muzzle loaders are the slow shooting variety. And as for rapid fire weapons a pair of revolvers, such as were prevalent in America since before the civil war of 1860, are quite rapid fire enough for mayhem among a group of unarmed people. Posted by Brad at March 23, 2005 08:50 AMYes, I've fixed it--thanks. Posted by Rand Simberg at March 23, 2005 08:54 AMEven muzzle-loaders can be used effectively, though it defies logic. If I recall correctly, a few years ago, some nut down in Texas drove his pickup through the front window of a coffee shop and ended up killing something like 7 people with a muzzle-loading rifle. Presumably, if people are trapped and unable to get out or too scared to defend themselves, even a 90-second reload time isn't enough to prevent mass killing. Posted by John Breen III at March 23, 2005 09:21 AMNice take on the situation Rand, I agree with your thesis. It's far to easy to blame problems like this on "youth culture", and every generation has thought that the younger generation is somehow degraded compared to theirs. If you look hard enough though, you can find many examples of killer kids killing their parents and/or schoolmates 100 years ago or more. It's not a problem unique to our culture, although our culture may make it a little easier. Posted by Kevin at March 23, 2005 10:12 AMread Gangs of New York (no not the movie) and tell me that todays 'youth' culture is more violent than in the past. Posted by dave at March 23, 2005 11:11 AMNo other country in the Western world has a problem with school kids walking into their schools and blowing away the other kids they go to school with guns. This is problem only found in the US. It doesn't happen in Canada, New Zealand, UK, Australia, France, Germany, Spain and on and on. Maybe it really is a problem with unique US causes and for once you guys will have to ask why is this happening in our schools and in no other schools across the West. And the idea of saying this not surprising given the population of America is akin to saying mass murder in schools is just a statistical nuisance, and that's as dumb as calling terrorism a nuisance. Posted by Dad at March 23, 2005 12:45 PM
Perhaps Hugh is old enough to remember the days when students routinely brought hunting rifles to school. Dad said: I refer you to: http://archives.cnn.com/2002/WORLD/europe/04/26/germany.shooting/ Here's the first paragraph: "Throughout the night and into Saturday, shocked and grieving residents in the German city of Erfurt laid flowers and candles outside the school where a shooting rampage left 18 dead." So given that your hypothesis is demonstrably incorrect, it's fair to say that your conclusions are equally erroneous. By the way, the article also says: "Germany already has strict laws governing the right to a gun, but experts say the country is awash with illegal weapons smuggled into the country from eastern Europe and the Balkans. " And come on, it took me 5 seconds and only 1 search on Google to find this counter-example. If you want to blast the US culture, youth, gun ownership, whatever, at least make a better effort of it. -S Posted by Stephen Kohls at March 23, 2005 01:25 PMDad,
I also recall German youth being involved in a little shooting spree called "World War II." There are also more recent exmaples, like ethnic cleansing in Yugoslavia.
Except that those historically low crime rates predate gun control. In the early 1890's, for example, England averaged only one handgun homicide per year, out of population of 30 million. Gun control was instituted in England not because of the crime rate but for political reasons -- fear that labor unions and arnarchists would use guns. It's really not wise to make observations about human nature -- even American human nature -- based upon such a small sample size. The Minnesota killings, like the Columbine ones, while tragic, are pretty infrequent. For instance, if you cut out a few urban districts, the crime problem in the United States is not that much different from the UK. One of the reasons I subscribe to a number of libertarian positions is simply because government micromanagement of the general population doesn't really get at the problems that are cited to justify that micromanagement. Posted by Chuck Divine at March 23, 2005 04:04 PMThe firearms used in the reservation shooting were stolen police firearms taken from the perps grandfather after he killed him. His grandfather was a police officer. Also note these were conventional firearms and not so-called assault weapons yet his kill ratio was on the very high side of the average for these type of events. Posted by Mike Puckett at March 23, 2005 04:52 PMIf it was true that gun free zones didn't lower the chance for someone getting shot dead, they wouldn't bother to screen people for guns everytime your President goes someplace. Wouldn't you think? Regarding todays crime rates, I see several causes. Too much idle body time is one. Probably the major one. Our body really wasn't made for sitting all day in front of the TV, or in front of a desk. We are genetically the same as our hunter gatherer forefathers. I do light exercise regularly to satisfy that biomechanical constraint. Lack of sunshine or an improper diet can also be causes. Especially lack of sunshine. People spend an awful lot of time indoors now. People's diets used to be even more unbalanced in the XIXth century. Another problem is the proliferation of psychotropic drugs. The importance of the effect depends on the side effects of the drug in question. I still think having a restrictive gun ownership policy is good because, in spite of not fighting the causes of violence per se, it minimizes the harmful side effects. Much the same as an Aspirin will lower a potentially letal fever but not actually cure the cause of the fever. If it was true that gun free zones didn't lower the chance for someone getting shot dead, they wouldn't bother to screen people for guns everytime your President goes someplace. Wouldn't you think? That's not a very useful analogy, since you apparently want to compare the head of state, or whom there is only one, with limited access, to millions of schoolchildren. There is such a thing, politically correct though it may be, as a cost/benefit ratio. Posted by Rand Simberg at March 23, 2005 05:44 PM"I still think having a restrictive gun ownership policy is good because, in spite of not fighting the causes of violence per se, it minimizes the harmful side effects. Much the same as an Aspirin will lower a potentially letal fever but not actually cure the cause of the fever." It would be as if the aspirin has a %25 chance of giving you a fatal disease at some point in the future because it compromises your bodies long term internal defenses. The problem with gun control is it is political snake oil. There is not one shred of evidence it works, just a collection of post hoc, proctor hoc arguments.
"If it was true that gun free zones didn't lower the chance for someone getting shot dead, they wouldn't bother to screen people for guns everytime your President goes someplace. Wouldn't you think?" That is one of the most assinine non-sequtirs I have read in a while. How many schools have active secret service protection? You are comparing actual security to an abstract theroretical gun free school zone which has pretty signs to warn people not to bring guns in. Funny how someone hell bent on murder ignores such feel good laws that have no real detererent effect.
"Gun crime amongst the young in cities like London, Birmingham, Manchester and Nottingham is growing as at drugs-related turf war creates the sort of cocaine-fuelled gun violence which exploded on the streets of America in the 1980s. The number of firearms offences in Britain has increased almost 40% from 4,903 in 1997 to 6,843 in 2000, still small fry in comparison with America but the trend is worrying. We live in a country where it is virtually impossible to buy a gun legally, but nearly 300,000 illegal guns remain in circulation. In 1981 the American overall gun crime rate was 8.7 times the rate in England and Wales. In 1995 it was only 5.7 times and by 2002 it was 3.5 times. The two are on a path to converge." Posted by Mike Puckett at March 23, 2005 06:17 PMLizzie Borden, with an axe, How old is that? You tell me. Gojira, you don't seem to be thinking. The zone around the President is very, very far from gun-free. You should assume that one out of every three males, and one out of every four females, within ten yards of the President is armed. They simply don't care for competition. And the only reason people use guns in this sort of situation is the glamorization of firearms the Left indulges itself in. If anybody really wants a high body count and lots of TV time, bolting a steel pipe to the front bumper of a pickup, going downtown, and mowing down pedestrians, street people, and the occasional cop would result in a higher body count than anything one could do with an autoloading firearm outside a full sports stadium. Having murder weapon and getaway vehicle in one handy package could be useful, mm? Regards, The problem with gun control is it is political snake oil. There is not one shred of evidence it works, just a collection of post hoc, proctor hoc arguments. Just look at the violent crime rate in the western european countries with such a policy. Contrary to what you may think guns in general population use will not make you safer. Just ask the Iraqis. If there are criminals with weapons, the answer is not to give weapons to everyone, but to remove the weapons from the criminals. This presuming there is a democratically controlled professional police force, which is the case. Ric: Sure, the bodyguards are packing. That is the whole point isn't it? Delegation of safety to professionals, rather than giving a weapon to any bozo. The pickup is a good idea in theory. But the thing is, contrary to what some of you may think, most shooting sprees are done for a reason, with particular targets in mind, even if some others get along for the ride. Just killing whoever happens to be passing on the street is usually not enough. They want to get someone they have a reason to hate, even if that reason is trifle and insignificant to anyone else but the murderer. For some reason these persons keep killing parents, teachers, ex-bosses, etc. Authority figures. Oh there are more strange cases, like that woman who killed a group of people with her SUV because she wanted to get out of the driveway and they were in the way. I have seen people purposedly run over dogs for the same reason, some managing to roll over their vehicle in the process. But that is usually because they have little care for others, some steam, and the moment happened to present itself. You do not see people planning this sort of thing a long time in advance. Opportunity makes the thief. Sometimes it also makes the murderer. Posted by Gojira at March 24, 2005 01:18 PMPeople living in rural areas are particularly Since guns and self-defense have become illegal I do think it's true that simply having guns On the other hand Switzerland somehow manages It's also a good question just why it is But knives still, frequently, do kill people, It's not difficult to find states in the As I said above I do suspect these states What I'm trying to work up to here is that Beyond that there is the question of how It's a value judgement but I'm pretty "Just look at the violent crime rate in the western european countries with such a policy." Thank you for falling so easily into my post hoc, proctor hoc trap. You obvioulsy need schooling on what that phrase means. What evidence do you provide that Europe's violent crime rate is a result of that policy and not a coincedental happenstance? Contrary to what you may think guns in general population use will not make you safer. Just ask the Iraqis. And what evidence do you have that it has made them less safe? It seems some armed Iraqis took out some 'insurgents' the other day when they formed an impromptu well regulated militia. I have never seen a war zone where small arms were not easy to find in spite on any local ordinances. These are the post hoc proctor hoc arguments I was referring to. Those european nations had low crime rates before they enacted stirngent gun control laws. "If there are criminals with weapons, the answer is not to give weapons to everyone, but to remove the weapons from the criminals. This presuming there is a democratically controlled professional police force, which is the case." The answer is to remove the phucking criminals from society, not dumbing down freedom so we can endure the criminal element. If it is a choice between the Second Amendment and enhanced use of the death penality for criminals and enhanced prison sentences, I know which I favor. My freedom and life is worth far more than a felon's. I live in a rural area with a crime rate as low or lower than most european countries and proabally 10+% of the local households have military style semiautomatic rifles. I don't know if you have been paying attention (I suspect not) but the overwhelming bulk of violent crime in the US is concentrated into a geographically infintesimally small metropolitan area constituting less than 2% of the surface area of the CONUS. The last three murders in my area were with a piece of pipe, a hypodermic needle and a bow and arrow. I think that is the grand total since 1988 or so. You might also find it interesting that the areas in the US with the highest violent crime also has the most strignent gun control laws if you find post hoc, proctor hoc arguments compelling. Posted by Mike Puckett at March 24, 2005 05:08 PM"On the other hand Switzerland somehow manages Actually, the Swiss are issued and keep at home SIG 550 caliber 5.56mm fully automatic real asaault rifles, not semi-auto look alikes. Posted by Mike Puckett at March 24, 2005 05:11 PMAs I said earlier, gun control is snake oil. It is consumed by people incapable of critical though who seek an easy solution to a complex problem. There is no hard evidence to be presented to support its sucess because none exists. Read and learn: "Notes on National Academy Report Based on 253 journal articles, 99 books, 43 government publications, and some of its own empirical work, the panel couldn't identify a single gun control regulation that reduced violent crime, suicide or accidents. From the assault weapons ban to the Brady Act to one-gun-a-month restrictions to gun locks, nothing worked. (Something that I have been the first person to investigate empirically for many of these laws, and I also had been unable to find evidence that they reduced violent crime.) The study was not the work of gun-control opponents. The panel was set up during the Clinton administration, and of its members whose views on guns were publicly known before their appointments all but one had favored gun control. Something that I wrote up about the panel three years ago is still relevant. http://www.nap.edu/books/0309091241/html/ Posted by Mike Puckett at March 24, 2005 05:35 PMIn Switzerland only the members of the militia (think permanent conscripted army) can have a automatic weapon. The weapon is assigned and they may keep 20 rounds of ammunition stored under lock and key. Failure to store weapons properly is punished. Civilians may not own automatic or semi-automatic weapons. People with a criminal record may not own any firearms. For more info see this. The society is rich and isolated. Even then crap like this can happen. Which caused their regulations for civilian weapons to change. Still, France and Germany manage to have lower firearm homicide rates while being more liberal with immigration. Try reading about the hoops you have to jump to get Swiss nationality someday. Posted by Gojira at March 24, 2005 06:17 PMIn Switzerland only the members of the militia (think permanent conscripted army) can have a automatic weapon. The weapon is assigned and they may keep 20 rounds of ammunition stored under lock and key. Failure to store weapons properly is punished." And almost all male citizens of adult age constitute this Militia. "Civilians may not own automatic or semi-automatic weapons." WRONG! You just love being wrong do you Gojiria? "Today, enlisted men are issued M57 automatic assault rifles and officers are given pistol, Each reservist is issued 24 rounds of ammunition in sealed packs for emergency use. (Contrary to Handgun Control's claim that "all ammunition must be accounted for," the emergency ammunition is the only ammo that requires accounting.) After discharge from service, the man is given a bolt rifle free from registration or obligation. Starting in the 1994, the government will give ex-reservists assault rifles. Officers carry pistols rather than rifles and are given their pistols the end of their service. When the government adopts a new infantry rifle, it sells the old ones to the public. Reservists are encouraged to buy military ammunition (7.5 and 5.6mm-5.56 mm in other countries-for rifles and 9 and 7.65 mm Luger for pistols, which is sold at cost by the government, for target practice Non-military ammunition for long-gun hunting and .22 Long Rifle (LR) ammo are not subsidised, but are subiect to no sales controls. Non-military non-hunting ammunition more powerful than .22 LR (such as .38 Spl.) is registered at the time of sale. Swiss military ammo must be registered if bought at a private store, but need not be registered if bought at a range The nation's 3,000 shooting ranges sell the overwhelming majority of ammunition. Technically, ammunition bought at the range must be used at the range, but the rule is barely known and almost never obeyed. The army sells a variety of machine guns, submachine guns, anti-tank weapons, anti-aircraft guns, howitzers and cannons. Purchasers of these weapons require an easily obtained cantonal license, and the weapons are registered, In a nation of six million people, there are at least two million guns, including 600,00 fully automatic assault rifles, half a million pistols, and numerous machine guns. Virtually every home has a gun. " http://www.gunownersalliance.com/swiss-1.htm
I have no problem with that. Posted by Mike Puckett at March 24, 2005 06:27 PMYes, and they have a higher violent crime rate involving firearms than the Germans and French. "Yes, and they have a higher violent crime rate involving firearms than the Germans and French."
William Antrim Bonney was not a troubled youngster lashing out, but one of the fighters in the losing side (probably in fact the good guys) in a land war. He continued fighting after the land grab succeeded, and for this was labeled an outlaw. Posted by triticale at March 25, 2005 12:06 PMPost a comment |