Fox News has just predicted that Bush wins Ohio, which puts him within four electoral votes of reelection. Hard to see how Kerry can run the table from here.

It was closer than I expected, but with this victory over their tormentor and accuser, it looks like the Vietnam vets will finally get the parade they never got. And soon, John Kerry will be dismissed from duty, perhaps more honorably than the last time, but not much.

[Update at 1:16 AM EST]

Uh oh.

The Kerry campaign won't concede Ohio--they think that the provisional ballots could still give them the state, and CNN refuses to call it. Unless Bush can pick up enough other states, we may be going into extra innings. It looks like he'll get Iowa, but that won't be enough by itself. They still need to pick up Wisconsin and either Nevada or New Mexico to make Ohio moot.

Just one word:

Amen.

Fox has Bush at 269 as of now. If it holds up, that's the game. Not sure why you found this result closer than you expected. It seemed to me to follow the RCP numbers right down the line, with a bit of a break to Bush/Cheney.

I find it impressive that in my wretched state (California) Senator Floppy is ahead by only 5% right now (26% of precincts in).

I think we have to give Team W a lot of credit here. They were smacked hard upside the head by the dot bust of 2001, by 9/11, and then by taking some very tough decisions -- taking the war to the bad guys -- and sticking to them without compromise.

The history of Western democracy would not inspire confidence in the ability of leaders to survive leading a nation through convulsion into new truths. Churchill lost in 1945, Lloyd-George got toasted in 1922, Maggie Thatcher was busted the year after the Berlin Wall came down, and poor Alexander Hamilton got shot to death by an early Clintonista after helping Geo Washington midwife the new Republic. Hell, even Socrates had to drink hemlock. . .

The ability of W to stay disciplined and make his case to a sufficient number of voters to enable him to finish the job is with few historical precedents. Only Lincoln in 1864 comes readily to mind. There's a lot of ways he could have blown it, with the MSM after him like savage attack dogs, as well as being enemy #1 for all those folks whose role in the New World Order is looking iffier by the hour. He didn't.

In essence, I think W has walked blindfolded and juggling torches across a slack tightrope while the audience pelts him with rotten tomatoes. That he made it at all is remarkable.

If you go here:
http://election.sos.state.oh.us:80/results/SingleRaceSummary.aspx?race=PP

There's a URL for the _numbers_ of provisional ballots handed out. There's 71,000 handed out as I write this - and that doesn't cover the gap even if every single ballot 1) is legal, 2) is for Kerry.

CNN's website has had the count at 249 (Bush) to 211 (Kerry) for quite a while now. Still waiting on (apparently) HI, NV, NM, MN, IA, WI and MI. Ohio is listed as "too close to call"...

They said last week they would "find" some state to go to court over. Now they have it.

This will be, I fear, how elections will look for the rest of our lives, unless there is a whopping difference in the popular vote count between the candidates. The best news is that the number of voters may be a new record. I don't think we will lose now, but if we do, it would be in a close vote from a majority of eligible voters.

> The Kerry campaign won't concede Ohio

When Bush has a 100,000+ lead?

What a schmuck.

If it were a few thousand, I could respect him for hanging in there, no matter what I think of his politics. But if they contest this, it sets a precedent that from now on, the Democrats will contests every Presidential election, no matter how thin the reasons.

And I used to wonder why it was called the jackass party.

If WI & MI go Kerry then OH is the last gasp. Without both WI or MI OH is irrelevant. Nothing else seems in play.

Count the provisional Ohio ballots. Thats not a "re-count" its just finishing up the tally.

They play baseball through 9 even if its 17 - 0.

= = =

Once I am 100% convinced Ohio is Red (95% ain't enough convincing, yet and its late) I will post a gracious concession and encouragement for the GOP to govern well. Thereafter my Iraq rants will terminate. America has chosen its course, an unwise course, IMHO, but its been chosen.

(A February 2005 call to reinstate the draft might cause me to re-consider. . .)

But I will point out, the economy and foreign policy are now 100% the GOP's to do well at or screw up. You guys will either carry the ball or fumble it and only time will tell which it will be.

> Ohio is listed as "too close to call"...

CNN is in partisan denial. Their own numbers show Bush with a full 2% lead in Ohio, with 98% of all precincts counted.

Remain serene, Grasshoppers, and reflect on the wisdom of the Master:

When network call final state, exciting story of close election vanish like dew in morning sun.

And trust the statistics. Bush has a lead of 166,072 in Ohio with 96.48% of all precincts reporting and this lead is growing. (For example it was only 161,156 when 95.7% of all precincts were in.) Why so? If you check out the official results from the Ohio Secretary of State's nice self-updating Web page, you'll note that all of the counties still reporting results have been going for W by larger margins than Ohio overall, in some cases by up to 2-1 margins.

This Democratic talk about Ohio being a new Florida is just whistling past the graveyard, abetted by networks that don't want to let go of their exciting story. A 3% final margin (170,000 out of 5,000,000 votes) is not a close election. Ohio won't even bother doing a recount, and good luck to any lawyers trying to find 170,000 dangling chads.

If the Dems want to make Ohio "the new Florida"... LET THEM. Do they have any IDEA how bad they look? The party of sore losers strikes again...

Bill White
"But I will point out, the economy and foreign policy are now 100% the GOP's to do well at or screw up. You guys will either carry the ball or fumble it and only time will tell which it will be."

Bill this is still your country, regardless of what party has the White House. Non participation is always a bad idea.

Brian, is that an invitation to express why Bush policies remain unwise, even if they are supported by an electoral majority?

;-)

This is Rand's site after all.

Quote from Carl Pham: "The ability of W to stay disciplined and make his case to a sufficient number of voters to enable him to finish the job is with few historical precedents."

Not to mention that the Washington Redskins lost their last home game before the election.

I'm still waiting for White to describe the substantial military contribution in Iraq that he hoped for from our "allies".

The US currently has 120-40k troops in Iraq and could bring in more from Germany, SoK, Japan, and other places.

Other than China and Russia, who could provide a significant fraction of that?

I'm still waiting for White to describe the substantial military contribution in Iraq that he hoped for from our "allies".

Well, its all moot now.

Perhaps we could have bribed the French, perhaps not. After all, in the movie Casablanca the Vichy captain switched sides "after" Rick let him win at the gambling tables.

My team and my arguments lost. I accept that.

Now, show America what you guys can do.

> Perhaps we could have bribed the French, perhaps not.

The question assumes that you have bribed the French, Germans, and anyone else you'd like. The question is what/how much they can deliver.

The answer is "not much", which both makes the bribes unnecessary and proves that "get international cooperation" is an unworkable fantasy.

Workable strategies are drawn from the possible, not the desirable.

> After all, in the movie Casablanca the Vichy captain switched sides "after" Rick let him win at the gambling tables.

Hint: inaccurate cultural references aren't "hip", let alone an argument,.

Rick's payments had nothing to do with the Vichy captain's "switching sides". Rick had been letting him win for a long time in order to keep Rick's club open.

The captain switched sides, if he did at all, after Rick shot the Germans, after Rick had given up the club.

The movie actually argues that the captain didn't switch sides at all, that he'd been fighting the Germans in his own way the whole time. The captain merely came out in the last scene, perhaps because he couldn't cover up for Rick and stay in his current position or perhaps because he decided that he'd spent enough time faking it.

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