Osama bin Laden: "...we have found it difficult to deal with the Bush administration..."

May it be so for another four years.

Rand, can't you, read? bin Laden's statement is filled with gloating at the incompetence of this Administration.

My Pet Goat? OBL is mocking us, Rand.

Yes, of course I can read. I can read that Osama's been watching too many Michael Moore movies. I can also read that he wants a truce.

I can also read that he wants a truce.

Care to share? Seems like you have ingested some really good stuff. Top Shelf.

Where does bin Laden ask for a truce?

Leave us alone and we will leave you alone?

Rand, that message is a recruiting call to Iraqi civilians who are tired of hearing that their 5 year old died by shrapnel from a JDAM, but since it was to avenge 9/11, well no biggie.

This video is sending out a new al Qaeda sign up sheet. OBL is tan, rested and ready for the next round.

Go to Belmont Club. There's a posting there from October 30 called "Osama Bin Laden's Surrender Proposal."

From Belmont Club:

It is important to notice what he has stopped saying in this speech. He has stopped talking about the restoration of the Global Caliphate. There is no more mention of the return of Andalusia. There is no more anticipation that Islam will sweep the world. He is no longer boasting that Americans run at the slightest wounds; that they are more cowardly than the Russians. He is not talking about future operations to swathe the world in fire but dwelling on past glories. He is basically saying if you leave us alone we will leave you alone. Though it is couched in his customary orbicular phraseology he is basically asking for time out.

Perhaps. Yet bin Laden surely knows that 99.99999% of America wants him dead, dead, dead.

So, who is bin Laden really speaking to? What target demographic are his words written for?

In my opinion, his target audience are those a-political Iraqis who just want to live their lives without war. He is saying to them if America leaves Islam alone, al Qaeda will leave America alone.

Is he lying? Absolutely.

But if I am a war weary Iraqi civilian who hated Saddam yet also just wants Sistani, Sadr, Allawi and the Baathists to just leave me the bleep alone, those words might well resonate.

What is bin Laden saying: "If America had not meddled in the Islamic world, 9/11 would not have happened."

Do I believe that crap? No, no and no. By the way did I say no?

I know bin Laden is lying. You know bin Laden is lying. How do we convince the average Iraqi bin Laden is lying? If we fail at this last task, the insurgency grows as millions of angry unemployed Iraqi teenagers potentially join the insurgency.

Like that recent homicide bomber whose own parents had no idea what their son was intending.

Millions of unemployed teenage boys with lots of guns and explosives and rhetoric saying "America will be safe if they only just leave us alone" is a recipe for further waves of attacks, not surrender.

Juan Cole nails it, IMHO. bin Laden is now attempting to swerve to the political middle to garner support among the teeming masses of Islam by offering toned down rhetoric and the appearance of a "reasonable proposal" to end the War on Terror.

I'm surprised no one's picked up on the real significance of this tape.

For a long time now, everyone's been expecting an "October surprise" from Al Queda in the form of a terrorist attack just before the election.

It didn't happen! Al Queda has been so weakened by the United States -- which Bill claims is losing the war on terrorism -- that it was unable to pull off the attack everyone was expecting and had to settle for sending a videotape instead!

A videotape of a bitter, angry, broken, tired, frightened little man: A *coward* who claims God is protecting him, yet doesn't have enough faith in that protection to leave his hole and appear in public.

Well, the real surprise the Left was waiting for was a videotape of OBL's capture on Halloween. Then they could say that it was all part of a vast Right Wing Conspiracy to Steal The Election Again.

Frankly, I can't wait for the ads to be over (though I'm sure some local party ads will still be running next week), and the TV will only be tuned to the DVD player's output tonight.

It didn't happen!

I have to second Edward Wright's comment. This is really big news. It is now 4.30 PM in the swing states and too late for OBL and his gang of merry beheaders to to influence the most important single event as far as his own future viability is concerned, which is the US election. They had 4 years to plan this while (according to the NYT and other deep thinkers) we were "distracted" by the war in Iraq. End results? Zip. This guy is finished, reduced to a talking head. He's just H. Ross Perot after the glow of early '92 wore off, a hangover from an idea that seemed good at the time ("Let's drink ALL the tequila! Let's fly airplanes into the WTC!")

As for reaching out to the "moderates" -- ha ha. The guy's only shtick was planting bombs, and his credibility rested on the perception that he could influence the Great Satan by doing so. Well, he's proved to be a paper tiger. Don't underestimate the contempt it will excite in the Arab world for OBL to have sent a threatening videotape instead of a truck full of C-4. Look for his star to blink out the same way Saddam's did.

And there are plenty of patriotic Iraqi moderates for moderate Iraqis to support. It's not like they need to outsource political leadership -- to OBL or anybody. We should also give them credit, as human beings no stupider or less moral than we, for being far more likely to eschew than embrace murderous insanity, however smoothly phrased and decorated about with smiley faces and/or Koranic quotes.

I imagine that Al Quaeda, or the people advising them, are
smart enough to realize that another major terrorist attack
in america would reduce those opposed to the Iraq war to a
small minority. Giving credit to Bush, I think he's scared
them bad enough that it'll be years before there's another
major attack on america. I don't buy that they couldn't do
it if they wanted to. We are just wide open.

The battle is in Iraq, for now. If Kerry wins look for an
ever increasing violence in Iraq aimed at Iraqis openly
opposed to the Baathists and Al Quaeda.

> I imagine that Al Quaeda, or the people advising them, are smart

You have a very powerful imagination, if you can imagine that. :-)

"...we have found it difficult to deal with the Bush administration..."

Kerry was right. Bush does have a problem with building international coalitions :-)