I don't know if I've mentioned this previously. I've been thinking it, but may have been too busy to post.

Here's my theory on why they picked the solstice. It has nothing to do with the fact that it's the solstice. I think that it's because thirty days later is the thirty-fifth anniversary of the first moon landing. Burt (and perhaps Paul Allen) seem to be big on anniversaries.

[Update at 3:30 PM PDT]

Andrew Gray has an even better theory in comments:

Unless I'm miscounting, thirty days *less one*; isn't Apollo 11 generally taken as being July 20th? (which is also the anniversary, I note, of the eventual recovery of Liberty Bell 7...)

But on that note, July 21, 1961 - Liberty Bell 7's flight, being the second suborbital flight, might be considered not inappropriate as a date?

That aside, this does beg the question... what is in the two weeks after that, if he's so keen on anniversaries? It'd be unusual to not have one for the second flight, if this is his plan as you suggest...

He's right on the arithmetic--I forgot about the old "thirty days has September, April, June, and November." And it would be an appropriate anniversary.

But as for the fourteen-day one, they would be foolish to wait fourteen days for the second attempt. They'll do it as quickly as they can, so they have some margin in case they have weather or other problems. The first time you have the luxury of choosing an anniversary date, but the second one has to be driven solely by winning the prize.

Two weeks less one day in the 4th of July.

This lets Rutan win the X-prize on the Independence Day with one day of cushion, if need be.

Thats my theory and I'm sticking to ir.

You can stick to it if you want, but it holds no water. The June flight is not an X-prize flight, which requires a thirty-day announcement of intent. They won't make such an announcement until after a successful test flight to altitude.

Touche!

:-)

Rand 1
Bill 0

More importantly, it's the 15th anniversary of my first date with my (now ) wife!

And it is the 21st century ...

Well, maybe they'll tell us one of these days. It could have just been convenient.

Unless I'm miscounting, thirty days *less one*; isn't Apollo 11 generally taken as being July 20th? (which is also the anniversary, I note, of the eventual recovery of Liberty Bell 7...)

But on that note, July 21, 1961 - Liberty Bell 7's flight, being the second suborbital flight, might be considered not inappropriate as a date?

That aside, this does beg the question... what is in the two weeks after that, if he's so keen on anniversaries? It'd be unusual to not have one for the second flight, if this is his plan as you suggest...

Before 4 August... Hmm. 31/Jul is the 40th anniversary of Ranger 7 transmitting (and crashing), the 35th anniversary of the Mariner VI (must have been a fun couple of weeks back in '69) flyby, or the 5th anniversary of the Lunar Prospector swansong. That latter one may be considered a touch appropriate, perhaps? Or: 1/Aug. The sixtieth anniversary of the first operational use of a rocket aircraft?

Thoughts?

Maybe it's about the soonest date they can get ready for the final test flight before they go for the prize.

Just a thought.

I like your last proposal Andrew Gray, it would be the most fitting I believe for it to fall on the anniversary of a previous space plane adventure.

Hefty: For what it's worth, I tried putting it against the X-15 - the two 100km+ flights were on July 19 and August 22 1963.

On a related Rutanish note: June *22* will be the twentieth anniversary of the first flight of /Voyager/. A long way in those two decades...

Sure, waiting until Day 14 would be a good way to hit an embarassing snag and fall over... still, regardless of if they choose to compete, I can't see anyone else flying by the beginning of August. Doesn't mean they can't aim for an anniversary date that falls safely within that timeframe, mark you - and it would be characteristic. Were powered flights two and three on, ah, Auspicious Days?

(Thought: would fly one, fail one, fly one in the relevant time period be permissible?)

Some related thoughts on the X-prize legalese... http://www.xprize.org/teams/guidelines.html

Part 8: "...all entrants for the ANSARI X PRIZE will also be required to timely submit a letter of intent... [which] will have to be received, accepted and acknowledged by the ANSARI X PRIZE Rules Committee during a time frame to be specified but, in no event, later than three months prior to the respective entrant's first flight attempt."

That suggests Rutan would have to give ~90 days notice of his first shot at the prize? It does note that this could be held in confidence, mind.

"All ANSARI X PRIZE entrants shall be required to prominently display the service marked/trademarked ANSARI X PRIZE(R) and the NEW SPIRIT OF ST. LOUIS(SM) logos" - well, at least we'll be able to see if he's going for it at a glance...

Regardless of all of this, I think we're all hoping to be able to raise a glass or two on the 21st :-)

I seem to be posting a lot here. Really should go to bed.

Anyhow, a quick followup to my last post - April 8, 1964, was the launch of Gemini 1 - the first of two test flights.

May 13 was the anniversary of the first V2-Bumper launch (in 1948) - a V2 with a WAC Corporal rocket on top - the first two-stage rocket to go over 100km? (it made 112km)

I make no pretense either of these are more than after-the-fact attempts to draw a correlation, of course, but it's an interesting exercise to point out even unintended anniversaries. My apologies for rambling.

Good heavens! This all reminds me of the now-ancient art of Kremlinology.

- Eric.

Isn't the Solstice good enough? I know that Burt is into the whole aliens-built-the-pyramid thing -- which I prefer not to think about, mostly -- so it's a good chance that he's into the whole solar-alignment thing as well. In that department, solstices are about as fundemental as you can get.

Personally, while his whole pyramid thing kind of gives me the creeps, I'm okay with the solar-alignment thing. Charting the cycles of the sun was probably the first way our ancestors began to become aware of the larger cosmos. Aside from being useful to agriculture, I regard this as the beginning of the same upward-looking impulse which will be culminating, for the moment, at Mojave this Solstice. So, I think that's a perfectly good reason for the date.

By the way, I presume you'll be at the flight; I'll be scrounging my way down from Portland to be there too. Any other readers planning on being there?

Andrew wrote:

"Part 8: "...all entrants for the ANSARI X PRIZE will also be required to timely submit a letter of intent... [which] will have to be received, accepted and acknowledged by the ANSARI X PRIZE Rules Committee during a time frame to be specified but, in no event, later than three months prior to the respective entrant's first flight attempt."

That suggests Rutan would have to give ~90 days notice of his first shot at the prize? It does note that this could be held in confidence, mind."

How do we know a letter of intent has not already been submitted? Does it have to be public?

If no public announcement of intent is needed then I again suggest 21 June 2004 followed by 4 July 2004.

Independence Day.

I've given up trying to read too much into the date game (I also had originally thought historic dates in July would provide the key to Rutan's plans). But it makes more sense that the team would assess how the June 21 flight goes, then make their plans accordingly. Again, I've been told that 60-day public notice should be given for an X Prize attempt (with the X Prize folks themselves getting a 90-day non-public alert) ... but that may not be a hard and fast rule. If the advance-notice rules are bent, it won't be the first time, as noted in this passage from that famous reference work, "The Straight Dope":

"What isn't so well known is that [Charles Lindbergh] was not strictly eligible for the Orteig Prize because he started a week or two less than [the required] 60 days after registering with the prize committee. He and his backers felt it was more important to win the race than the prize. After his successful flight, the trustees waived the requirement at Raymond Orteig's suggestion and awarded him the money. It's understandable that he didn't wait. Within six weeks, two other teams (Chamberlin and Levine in the Columbia and Byrd, Acosta, Noville, and Balchen in the America) crossed the Atlantic from New York and would have won the Orteig Prize if Lindbergh hadn't."

Regardless of the whole public/private notice issue, I think Rutan is careful enough to have planned a test launch prior to a full X-Prize attempt. He doesn't have to be in a hurry as no one else is really close to an attempt. Therefore, I propose my birthday, July 24th, as a possible date for his first X-Prize launch. 35th anniversary of Apollo 11 splashdown. I was 5 in 1969 and thought all the hoopla was somehow related to it being my birthday. Egocentric little twerp that I was. But my dad told me I was witnessing history in the making. I'm glad that 35 years later, I'll be able to share a major event like this with my son. I just wish it hadn't taken so long.

"He doesn't have to be in a hurry as no one else is really close to an attempt."

I wouldn't say "No one". XCor has received their launch license, too. And even if they haven't been as public about their current state of progress, that doesn't mean that they're not close to making some test flights and attempts.

As was mentioned in the Straight Dope quote, 2 other teams completed the Orteig Prize challenge within 6 weeks of Lindbergh. I don't see how XCor should be completely counted out of being in close running for the Ansari X-Prize. Even if they don't win it, I can see them as being the second group to accomplish the task, and easily (hopefully) before the end of the year, if not the end of the summer.

No pressure or anything, Aleta. ;)

XCOR is not registered as a contestant, and they aren't presently building a vehicle capable of winning the Ansari X-Prize. They have clearly stated, several times, that they are not in the race, and even if they were, even they couldn't possibly develop and fly a vehicle by the end of the year. In the US, the only potential contender in the event of a Scaled failure is Armadillo.

Mea Culpa. I need to keep up with the sites more often, both here and the X-Prize site.