A grab bag of thoughts and observations on the news of the past week or so:

(1) The administration still doesn't seem to fully grasp the seriousness of the damage done by the revelations of abuse in Iraq. For one thing, Al Jazeera and Al Arabiya have been on the case since last year, while administration spokesmen have been denying that anything bad was happening. These revelations give credibility to news sources we are trying to undermine, quite apart from the direct damage of pushing literally hundreds of millions of muslims further into the arms of the islamists. Bush has finally said the word "sorry" but it's not clear he's taking any other effective action to undo the damage.

(2) Sometimes saying the obvious is a bad idea. It's obvious to anyone who doesn't harbor fantasies of driving the Jews into the sea that at least some West Bank land will have to be permanently annexed to Israel, for no other reason than that the lowlands around Tel Aviv are not defensible without control of the highlands overlooking them, and those highlands are outside the 1948 borders. Equally obviously, the Jewish State will cease to exist if the Palestinian refugees from 1948 and their descendants are allowed to return. It is apparently not obvious that you're better off keeping your mouth shut when saying the obvious puts issues on the front page that enable your enemies to portray you as a Zionist puppet. The fact that they'll make the claim no matter what is irrelevant - don't give them ammo unless you get something advantageous in return, which we so far have not. There may be some back room deal that makes the accounting work out, but I'm not holding my breath.

(3) This is a war of propaganda and perceptions. Who controls the front page controls the terms in which the conflict is perceived. The dominant issue in the Arab world is a sense of victimization at the hands of colonizers, and in particular at the hands of Zionists. Islamists offer one solution to this "problem," and secular strongmen another. Getting the Israel/Palestine issue off the front page should be a top administration priority. That may mean making the problem worse in the short term, but the problem cannot be allowed to continue festering. The details of rights and wrongs are complicated enough that there is simply no way to create a perfectly just solution. Both sides are going to have substantial numbers of innocent people who get royally screwed, and quite a few right bastards will get away scot free. The goal should be to compensate the former to whatever degree is practical, and to limit the number of the latter, along with their influence in the post-resolution power structures. If the Israel/Palestine issue can be gotten off the front page, the Arab media will have to find other stories to report, and other people to blame for their problems. The tinpot dictators of the Arab world know this, and it keeps them awake at night, as well it should.

(4) One of the right bastards alluded to above is Ariel Sharon. He's one of the lesser ones (it's hard to crack the top 100 considering the competition from the Palestinian side), but he has innocent blood on his hands. Despite this, he is probably the best hope for peace, since he appears to have a very solid grip on reality. The Wall is a necessary first step. Withdrawal from Gaza will limit Israeli casualties and provide a proving ground for the techniques needed to limit the danger from the West Bank once there is a withdrawal of Israeli troops behind the wall. The course of the wall will probably have to be adjusted, but the essential idea is sound. Once the wall is done it will rapidly become obvious to the Palestinian leadership that a permanent resolution of the conflict is being imposed, like it or not, and all they can hope to do is bargain for the best they can get. If they are smart they'll bargain right of return for compensation, and bargain for a geographically viable state in return for giving up claims to some of the West Bank highlands. Unfortunately there is major opposition from within Likud, which has the potential to derail the whole thing, taking everyone involved back to the same old pattern of atrocity and retaliation.

(5) Finally, a positive note. The Abu Ghraib fiasco has one clear hero, and his name is Army Specialist Joseph Darby. He blew the whistle to superiors, triggering the chain of events that lead to the Taguba report. He did this despite knowing he might suffer retaliation and ostracism. We need more like him.

"The administration still doesn't seem to fully grasp the seriousness of the damage done by the revelations of abuse in Iraq. For one thing, Al Jazeera and Al Arabiya have been on the case since last year, while administration spokesmen have been denying that anything bad was happening."

I'm not sure what Al Jazeera does should be considered 'on the case' in the sense that a free press would be - it's obvious they are more-or-less a propaganda machine.

Nevertheless - when did Al Jezeera and company broadasting their allegations? LTG Sanchez ordered an Article 15 investigation of hte 800th MP Brigade on 19 January, 2004. He ordered that the investigation cover the actions of hte brigade from 1 November 2003 to present.

That was a Monday, so it seems likely this bounced around his commmand for a week (minimum) before the order was issued. See, the CG doesn't just order this stuff up, the Legal guys have to paw over the available facts first, submit their recomendations to the Chief of Staff and etc.

Sure - the administration didn't know about it then - if the actions of task force commanders were micro-managed that deeply I'd be worried.

What I can tell from the Article 15 docuemnt was the investigating officer DID see the import here and forwarded his concerns via channels.

I think the problem might be that Bush manages hands-off. Give your people direction and let them go to work. This works, but it can be made to look like a bad idea in hindsight when or if someone screws up.

Brian - The Arab press has been reporting the allegations since shortly after the end of the war. I concur that Al Jazeera and Al Arabiya are effectively propaganda machines, but to a certain extent all media are propaganda machines for the world view of their intended audience. It's a rare person indeed who seeks out views irreconcileable with his own worldview.

"I think the problem might be that Bush manages hands-off." Yup. It works if you invest the required time and effort in ensuring that the people you hire are competent and that the problems they are working are completely within their area of expertise. I think Bush's failure has been in not recognizing that the current conflict requires constant attention to detail.

Unrelated to your comment, but relevant - Since I wrote this post the administration has started dealing more seriously with the issue, so my initial point no longer fully applies.

So what "effective action" do you propose for Bush, beyond strong condemnation, repeated apologies and going after the perpetrators? My impression is that they have a very good idea how serious this is, but there is a limit to what they can do. People who want excuses to hate the U.S. just aren't going to be swayed.

Talk about timing! I think you partly answered my question, Andrew, about three minutes after I asked it.

Definitely, the situation is changing quickly, and we're hearing more. I expect the picture to change quite a bit more before it settles down.
From testimony this morning, Bush apparently knew about the photos at least in February, and likely January. It was known generally before that.

It would have certainly been better if the administration had announced there were problems before the news got the pictures. I think their reasoning went like this: This would add gasoline to the current mess in Iraq, once they announced the problem publically the photos would come out quickly one way or another, and they just hoped they could keep it quiet longer than this. Of course, as usually happens, that didn't work out.

The Bush administration didn't cause it, but they probably should have aired the problem earlier. They didn't handle it well.

That should have been "three minutes before" ... arggh

VR - in addition to what they're already doing, they ought to borrow from the all-time master of spin, Bill Clinton. There are additional pictures and video in DoD custody, and they'll come out eventually. It would be PR-smart to do a document dump (including pctures and video) so that all the bad news comes out at once, rather than drip-dripping onto the front pages over months.

Another action which needs to be taken is complete restructuring of the relationship between regular military and contractors, and between military and OGAs (CIA mostly). I believe this is underway, but it could have and should have been done earlier. A high level firing would be salutory (I nominate General Boykin), too.

Still, as I said, they're coming to grips with it. Slowly, but they're moving, and that's good.