Florida Today one ups the Soviet planners by an order of magnitude--they have a fifty-year plan for conquering the solar system.

The plan is not unlike those formulated by several blue-ribbon panels formed over the years to try to give NASA a vision.

No kidding. And for that reason, it will fail as all the others have.

This is absurd. We can't imagine what kind of technologies will be available to us in fifty years, and what kind of societal changes will have occurred, and to attempt to lay out such a plan is futile. It's the typical space cadet fantasy--give our national space agency a bold objective to send some government employees somewhere to "explore," add money, and hope for the best.

No mention of the promise of the private sector. No talk of developing or industrializing space. No mention of space for the rest of us.

They're stuck in the sixties, hoping that Bush will be another version of their idealized (and false) notion of a Jack Kennedy.

Hey guys, come up with a plan unlike those of the past blue-ribbon commissions, then get back to me.

[Update on Monday evening]

Clark Lindsey isn't impressed, either.

Actually, Florida Today's fifty year plan does not "conquer the solar system." It only gets us to Mars by 2053. I'm not a big on to Mars guy, but that's absurd.

What we need is vision and leadership, not just technological advancement. My best guess as to how to proceed would be thus:

Step Zero: Disband NASA. Replace it with a Cabinet -level U.S. Department of Space Exploration (USSPACE), which would administer the U.S. Space Service, which would be itself comprised of two uniformed services: a civilian Exploration Command (XCOM) along the lines of NOAA, and a quasi-military Space Guard (USSG) along the lines of the Coast Guard.

Step One: Institute a star panel of science-fiction writers, something like the "dreamer fththp" in Jerry Pournelle's novel FOOTFALL. These guys and gals would produce a program for the conquest (and I'd call it just that!) of space that would become the basis of the federal space program. The first goal of the Star Panel's program might be something like "establish a permanently-manned space station with the capability of serving as a base for lunar exploration." The Star Panel would specify these goals exactly, calling in whatever experts were needed to create a realizable plan. Goals/progress would be announced by President on Space Day, or at some other yearly event.

Step Two: Competition. USSPACE would issue a invitation for bids to achieve the stated federal goals. Only U.S.-owned corporations would be eligible to bid. Sealed bids only; low bid wins ? no pork-barreling. Winners receive contract to buy a certain specified number of vehicles/systems/services for Space Service use, plus license to build "civilian" versions for private sale.

Step Three: Establish a Space Service Academy to train crews for specficied missions; further establish a U.S. federal court with jurisdiction over extraterrestrial activities.

Step Four: The Open Mind program. Federally-fund research into wild, way-out technologies in the hope of discovering "killer apps" like warp drive, antigravity, etc. via the research facilities of the Space Academy. .

Step Five: Create mechanism for institution of federally-chartered private space settlement companies (The U.S. Lunar Corporation, the U.S. Orbital Railway Corporation, the U.S. Mars Colonization Corporation, etc.). Finance these startups with the sale of Fed-backed "Space Bonds" along the line of the Victory Bond program in World War II. Create law (by treaty of Act of Congress) to enable private corporations/individuals to establish clear ownership of space resources/territory.

Treat space exploration like the conquest of any other frontier. First, send out Lewis and Clark; then, let the settlers in their Conestogas follow.

So, Rand...could you maybe outline your own direction for getting us into space? I'm familiar with your ideas, but it would be illuminating to see them laid out for comparison in a format analogous to this "50-year-plan" nonsense. No, I don't mean the "Rand Simberg 50-year-plan"...rather, your prescription for getting us where we want to go.

Maybe I could, if I wasn't currently working seventy hours a week helping one of NASA's contractors implement NASA's current "plan." I won't say what I'm working on specifically, because my regular readers could die from hilarity at the irony, and I can't afford to lose any. ;-)

Send me some notes -- I'll do the writing for you. (Yes, I'm that curious.)

I don't have any "notes"--it's all in my head. Getting the ideas down is the the hard part--writing itself is easy. I just don't have the time to do anything but kvetch right now. I shouldn't even be blogging. Maybe in December.

I don't understand why you think we need to 'open up' space exploration to private enterprise. Won't businesses do this of their own accord when and if space exploration becomes profitable?

Consider the case of renewable energy. People have been crowing about how we need to use more solar/wind energy for the last 25+ years. Has anything substantially changed as a result? No. We probably won't see any widespread adoption of renewable energy sources until it becomes the only economically viable alternative. Likewise you're probably not going to see any private enterprise in space until it becomes profitable.

Now assuming a lot of barriers to space exploration disappear over the next 50 years owing to different technological advancements. What exactly is 'out there' that will be so profitable for these businesses? I can't think of anything that wouldn't be far cheaper and easier to do on earth. Maybe someone can enlighten me.

You're obviously are unaware of all the barriers that the government puts in place against it.

""Maybe I could, if I wasn't currently working seventy hours a week helping one of NASA's contractors implement NASA's current "plan." ""

Let us guess. Rand is helping Boeing plan an OSP concept or Shuttle-BCDEF. Winged one, with .. hmm .. scramjets too.

>> People have been crowing about how we need to use more solar/wind energy for the last 25+ years. Has anything substantially changed as a result? No.

Wrong. There's been tax credits, and other incentives that have encouraged wind farms in Texas.

Gosh Rand, you'd make a lousy Indian. If you listen to ecobabblers some will tell you Indians plan "seven generations hence".

The comparison between renewable energy and space economics is a false one. We can live without going into space but we're going to hurt when we run out of fossil fuels, if they don't destroy the environment first. Renewable energy should be our absolute #1 science and technology issue. Space is fun, but it's not important in the big scheme of things.

OFF topic but :o)

Matthew posted:
>Consider the case of renewable energy. People
>have been crowing about how we need to use more
>solar/wind energy for the last 25+ years. Has
>anything substantially changed as a result? No.
>We probably won't see any widespread adoption of
>renewable energy sources until it becomes the
>only economically viable alternative.

Just a bit of a point, but the market for renewable energy systems here in the United States has been steadily rising for the last decade, or so. The current, (as of 2003) market is far outstripping the US manufactureres ability to keep up, and European companies are dropping prices and setting up support and service networks to take up the slack.
And this is with the current LACK of tax incentives in most states, and the cancelation of grants and funding projects.

>Likewise you're probably not going to see any
>private enterprise in space until it becomes
>profitable.

Currently, (that I know of) there is no major private interest in industry in space. The cost, and the difficult working conditions have pretty much killed most proposals for space-based industry...

...except tourism. And currently that market is not set up to 'fund' orbital operations.
Incrementally though, it is quite possible that private space efforts can build up by tapping the sub-orbital market and then using that to spring board to the orbital market.

It won't be cheap, and for the most part it won't be easy, but it CAN be done :o)

Randy