He's slipped back below Dean in the polls, though within the margin of error (look at the CNN/Gallup poll, which is the only one with a trend--he peaked in mid September). He was better off when he didn't campaign. Or debate.

Barring something completely unforeseen (e.g., Hillary jumping in--an unlikely event given the state of the economy and the polls that show her losing to Bush 50-42), I'm having trouble seeing a scenario in which Dean doesn't get the nomination at this point, because regardless of what national Democrats think, he's going to have all the momentum from the early primaries.