I'll note two things.

First, that they launched (Thanks to reader Ken Anthony for the link).

Second, that no one in the US ran live coverage.

So much for shock and awe among the American people over the magnificent achievement of the Chinese, in which they did something that we did forty+ years ago.

And so much for the new space race...

I'll have further thoughts in a column somewhere tomorrow.

Uh, they didnt run live coverage in China either. The authorities blocked the feed to prevent embarassment.
Plus I understand the launch time was not public anyway.

Not that I disagree with your sentiment. No Sputnik fever this October...

A very interesting article at spacedaily states that China may be very interested in space tourism.

http://www.spacedaily.com/news/oped-03zzn.html

I am boggled by the Chinese bureaucratic mind. A live broadcast would have had greater impact. There would have been no way to hide a failure of this launch so, why not go for the best presentation? I don't understand heroically sneaking into space.

Actually, the Chinese had pretty much live coverage.

They were scheduled to go aloft at 0906 local time. When the craft took off, they apparently interrupted local broadcasting, to televise it.

What they didn't have was the count-down (which I would guess was because they were worried about the possibility of it blowing up or otherwise failing).

Yes, it would've had much more impact if they'd had the drama of pre-launch countdown, etc., but then, the risk would've been greater too.

And AFAICT, they didn't even MENTION it on US news coverage 'til about half an hour later. Fer cryin' out loud, they didn't interrupt an interview w/ JESSICA SIMPSON.

I'm certain that the "Don't worry, be happy" reaction that some are expressing to Shenzhou 5 demonstrates more than a little complacency. The fact that the world is not going to go into a post Sputnik frenzy is no evidence that people are not concerned nor that they shouldn't be. What drove the post Sputnik shock was the surprise of it. We've been awaiting the first Chinese in space for several years.

There are a several things driving the complacency among some people.

First is the fallacy that the Chinese, being poverty stricken third world Asians, are not capable of challenging the West in space. I'm reminded of the pre World War II notions of the Japanese as near sighted, bucked tooth pygmies would couldn't fight. To people who hold this view, the Shenzhou 5 is "just a stunt" and "doesn't matter." And that any talk about space stations, space based weapons, or landings on the Moon is just--well--talk.

Second is the libertarian fallacy that somehow, by magic, the Chinese will fail because the state is involved in their effort. Coupled with this is the fear among the libertarians that should a response to the Chinese challenge be necessary, their dream of abolishing NASA would be put off forever. Indeed, the libertarian nightmare of an enhanced and envigorated NASA might come to pass. Some seem to be of the mind that they would rather cede the high frontier to the Chinese rather than see that happen.

Finally there's the liberal fallacy that suggests that China is not a threat at all. The same people who denied the Soviet threat before it and the Nazi threat before that choose not to see the government of China's tyrannical and imperialist nature. If one choses to be in denial of these facts, then naturally anything China does in space has to be benign.

I agree with Mark R. Whittington's statements above. However, I think it's also possible to be overly alarmed by this launch. I heard the Washington Times Bill Gertz on FoxNews talking about the danger the Chinese will use Shenzhou for espionage. Putting an occasional person in space with a camera is not an effective espionage technique, compared to satellites.

If the private sector in the US continues to grow at the current speed, this will be utterly irrelevant. The only danger I see is that the US will pump some more money to the established space players such as Lockheed and Boeing, which would have a negative effect on the real private launch market for e.g. spacex.

But given the track record of LockMart, I doubt that they would come up with something viable even if you gave them 10 billion $.

So the best thing to do is to congratulate the chinese on their achievement and otherwise just ignore them. The last thing we need is another politically motivated government space race.

A *single* *suborbital* launch that produces a profit would IMHO be more relevant than a government-sponsored flags and footprints mars mission.

Uh, I wish them a fair wind and God speed. This morning I symbolically wave my little Chinese flag.

Good for them and damn the naysayers!

As for the lack of live coverage, I saw reports indicating that no outside media, and only a few Chinese media reps, were allowed at the launch. Maybe they weren't able to get live coverage?

Boy, what a number of strawmen... Let's deal with them in isolation.

1) The Red Chinese are not capable of challenging the West in space? Well, we know their economic system (=communism) don't we? Chinese economic growth has occasionally been rapid, but I note there is considerable uncertainty regarding the true state of their economy. Among other things, their buildup in space has been decidedly unambitious -- just check their launchers, satellite/spacecraft programs launched since 1970 and it becomes fairly obvious that they are lagging behind. Anyone who believes this will change anytime soon is apparently assuming: a) the Chinese economy is about to grow by leaps and bounds so that it can support (in addition to more important military and social programs): b) a manned space program ambitious enough to send men to the Moon and beyond *or* they are working to vastly cheaper "disruptive" technologies. I cannot rule out the possibility of this happening, but I would like to see some solid evidence for it.

2) the Chinese will fail because the state is involved in their effort? When "the state" happens to be Communist, isn't this a fairly logical conclusion firmly based on empirical evidence dating back to 1917...? Of course, the Red Chinese monopoly on power may well end. A Chinese pluralistic society would presumably examine the supposed merits of human space exploration a lot more critically, e.g. versus unmanned scientific exploration. You don't have to be libertarian to believe this.

3) "Liberals" believe China is no threat at all? This particular liberal thinks it is quite likely the Chinese are pursuing military space projects, some of which may well pose a strategic risk to the West. What does Shenzhou have to do with this? Are the taikonauts supposed to drop nukes on American cities from orbit or what? On the contrary, it seems every dollar spent on Shenzhou is a dollar not invested in better ICBMs, military satellites etc.. Sure, there might be some minor technology spinoffs, but their man-in-space program will still detract from more useful efforts. I think those who are afraid of the Chinese should be very thankful for that.

MARCU$

"If the private sector in the US continues to grow at the current speed"
I presume you count a handful of dotcommers building hardware and making plans on ground as "growth of space industry". I'd say, its growth of ground activities, none of them has actually gone to space yet, and thats a very significant hurdle to cross.

And for god's sake, people, please stop reiterating that "something we did forty years ago" mantra. You are obviously forgetting that "we" cant do it right now, plus getting from first manned spacecraft to manned visits to certain celestial body didnt take all that long.

Yeah its not a race. How can you call it a race with only one runner ?

I believe that the Chinese do present a threat to United States. The Shenzhou most certainly doesn't, however. The current Chinese plans seem to represent an attempt to one-up the United States with respect to bragging rights and prestige. If the 'world' (Brazil, Europe, India, etc.) conducts its 'scientific research' (can flowers grow in space?) with the Chinese, the effect on the United States would be minimal. However, if the Chinese use their 'Skylab-era' technology to eventually visit the moon or asteroids, we are in trouble. I believe there is a point after which a certain amount of infrastructure in outer space will allow those who control this infrastructure to easily dominate anyone else who is developing in space. Certainly, a competing Chinese ISS would offer no significant threat to the US. However, a small (and it would only need to be small) lunar outpost that would provide China with the resources it needs to extensively develop its orbital infrastructure, would definitely threaten everyone else's orbital interests. In conclusion, Shenzhou is no Sputnik. However, recalling Japan in WWII, the Chinese plans for the future could give them the new aircraft carriers, while the United States is stuck with our old battleships. We must not allow that to happen, and therefore any steps the Chinese take in developing any orbital infrastructure must be taken seriously (a space train is essentially what the ISS is anyway).

One more thing:
Chinese _leaders_ have made statements about harnessing mineral and energy resources of outer space. Thats something quite different from endless blabbering about "science, exploration and future of humankind" you hear from western space powers.
They have stated a focus for their efforts. Yes, the first manned flight might be matter of simple national pride alone, but they talk about turning all this into very real, material benefit for their nation in future.

Von Brauns "EOR" looks like perfect fit for Shenzhou's ?

What people need to be looking at is not this flight, but the next one-- how soon will it be after this one? how long? how many on it, what will it do that's new. If as Rand points out, if they launch with the frequency of NASA shuttle launches of the past decade, then there's not much to be excited about. If they fly a repeat of this flight next spring, disguised with two men and lasting three days, again, big deal. Even a fast turnaround (say, a month) won't be that impressive if they keep reflying the same mission. (Even NASA figure out that two suborbitals was enough, even though original plans called for several more.) But what if, for example, they conduct an EVA (a real EVA, not a Leonov balloon float), or perform a rendevous or docking on the next flight? There's little excuse not to, if their plans are based on the US and Soviet experiences of the 1960s. So the second flight will show just how realistic their plans really are.

Note also that by not announcing concrete plans well in advance, they can pull off the old Soviet trick of claiming success from failure. As mentioned above with the Mercury suborbitals, canceling missions because they no longer serve a purpose can be important, too.

Only an idiot would imagine that a nation that has ICBMs cannot put a man into space, whether it's communist or not. The U.S. and the Soviet Union didn't start building rockets with the idea of putting men into space, they started building rockets to put weapons on top of. Even though the Chinese ICBMs are basically copies of Soviet models, our (and Russia's) early rockets were copies of the V-2 and evolved from there.

You are obviously forgetting that "we" cant do it right now, plus getting from first manned spacecraft to manned visits to certain celestial body didnt take all that long.

We can't? News to me. If you mean right this second, that's a true statement. It's also true for the Chinese, now that they've used up their flight asset.

And for god's sake, people, please stop reiterating that "something we did forty years ago" mantra. You are obviously forgetting that "we" cant do it right now, plus getting from first manned spacecraft to manned visits to certain celestial body didnt take all that long.

No, what has been forgotten is the difference between "can't" and "choose not to." We do not go to space right now by choice, not by lcak of ability, something you have obviously forgotten.

Dean is upset because U.S. media didn't break in to regular programming to announce the Chinese launch.

But, consider: If the nation of Grand Fenwick had managed to get a plane off the ground in 1945 -- 42 years after the Wright flight -- who would have cared?

The real story here is not the Chinese flight, but the fact that 42 years after the first human spaceflight a country can get good PR by duplicating it thanks failures of resolve and courage elsewhere.

"If you mean right this second, that's a true statement. It's also true for the Chinese, now that they've used up their flight asset."

I mean right this year. It may or may not be true for Chinese, i have no information on their spacecraft production capabilities. They could very easily have had backup unit standing by to cover up for botched launch even for this attempt, if their national prestige was really so important.

"We do not go to space right now by choice, not by lcak of ability, something you have obviously forgotten."
So "we" chose to commit us to inherently flawed STS for decades, and crash two of them just for kicks ? Thats quite an interesting position.

One thing to note is that time in this case is not linear. The Chinese are not forty years behind (they could be if they take the stupid detours we did, but they don't have to.) If they decide to do a shuttle, then I'd relax knowing they intend to make the same stupid mistakes we did and they certainly would be way behind.

Note that they didn't go suborbital, they went directly to 14 orbits in 20 hours. Skipping steps may mean more hazard, but fewer flights for the same achievements. Getting to orbit is the hard part, now they are half way to anywhere (paraphrasing Pournelle.)

Also, they seem to have a very pragmatic mindset, they are going to exploit the resources of space (my humble prediction.) Don't be fooled into thinking this is only a stunt for national pride. The Chinese have much more in mind than that... a claim for which I will be looking for evidence for and against in the next few weeks.

Ken Anthony:

I think your time-frame is too short. The Chinese, w/ Shenzhou-V, have shown themselves to be quite flexible about time-lines. The November 2000 Space White Paper placed a man in space (not the Moon, just space) sometime in this decade. As late as 2002, senior Chinese space officials were talking about a manned mission in 2005.

(Which raises the question, why the discrepancy?)

I think that the goals will be discussed (and have been), but the precise timelines will always be notional, at best, and outright fabrications (usually). It gives them the chance to save face, "beat" "deadlines" yet retain flexibility.

But I agree w/ you, they're in this for the long-haul, not simply for prestige.

Dean, do you think time discrepancy has anything to do with Loral? Six or seven years ago the Chinese were having a hell of a time getting anything to fly reliably where in the last five years things have gone just swimmingly.

Do not denigrate the Grand Duchy of Fenwick, they have had their own successful lunar program! Rocket was powered by their attempt at champagne. Dig out a copy or video of THE MOUSE ON THE MOON.

Lee,

Interesting question. I think Loral might have something to do w/ it (systems integration is a bitch until somebody shows you how to do it).

OTOH, I think the Chinese, in general, are very cagy about showing their hand. And it doesn't help that we've shown that we are WATCHING their hand.

Actually, Columbia is scheduled to go up in January. So unless someone has info to the contrary, we'll be back up in orbit within three months or so.

Actually, Columbia is scheduled to go up in January.

Ummm... that would be rather difficult wouldn't it.

Oop. Make that Atlantis, and next fall. Dunno where I got the January idea; can't find it now. Still, it's within a year. We could probably make it faster if we wanted to increase risk (which we don't).

Obviously I'm not in the spaceflight business. I'm going to shut up now.