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« Toppling Dietary Gods | Main | Space Blogapalooza »

China In Space

Jim Oberg has a good analysis of their plans.

China has launched five Shenzhou vehicles in a period of four years, which is not an impressive launch rate. But each one was meticulously handcrafted with improvements based on previous flight experience. Now that the design has been validated and standardized, the same level of expenditure will probably be able to manufacture and launch at least twice as many vehicles in the same time period.

That means we should be able to expect two to four Chinese manned flights per year over the next five years, with mission durations of up to several weeks. Some flights will test new technologies and new flight techniques. Others will assemble and use the ?space train? of linked orbital modules. Depending on international negotiations, one or more may visit the space station as a symbolic demonstration. China may take representatives of its own space partners ? perhaps a Brazilian, perhaps a Pakistani, perhaps even a European ? into orbit.

Sorry, but it doesn't sound to me like anything likely to cause angst in the American psyche any time soon.

[Update on Tuesday]

Well, the comments section is on fire. I may have to reconsider my position, because Marcus Lindroos and I seem to be in agreement. ;-)

I've got some response to a lot of this, but I think that I'm going to put it in a column, either for Fox or National Review, so I'll just let the commenters continue for now. Suffice it to say that I continue to believe that this is much ado about, if not nothing, then very little, and that in fact people who fear, for whatever reason, China's space program should take great heart from the expensive (perhaps ultimately unaffordable) and unimaginative way in which they're going about it...

When they stop emulating the Russians (and NASA) and start taking their technical lead from the American entrepreneurs, then I'll start to worry.

Posted by Rand Simberg at October 13, 2003 03:22 PM

Comments

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Posted by Faludeh at October 13, 2003 05:14 PM

I guess I can't judge what attitudes the American people have towards this since I have a far higher degree of interest than the "average" person in space. Can't say that I'm beaming with pride though. We can't even get into LEO while they're making bold statements about putting bases on the moon. It seems like Americans might just feel a tinge of lost greatness before they gloss over it with the "been there done that" attitude.

Posted by B.Brewer at October 13, 2003 06:39 PM

We can't even get into LEO while they're making bold statements about putting bases on the moon.

Well, if "bold statements" are your criteria, then NASA has no shortage of those. I don't think that there's a "bold statement" gap.

It seems like Americans might just feel a tinge of lost greatness before they gloss over it with the "been there done that" attitude.

I doubt it. The reality is that we have "been there done that," and most of us are sensible enough to know it.

When they actually go somewhere else and do something else (something that even they make no "bold statements" about doing for years to come), then we might pay attention.

Posted by Rand Simberg at October 13, 2003 06:55 PM

Maybe, impressing the U.S. and Russia isn't the point. Maybe, China?s looking to impress their neighbors closer to home. Joining, the Manned Space Fight Club, may be a way to make a claim of technological superiority over its neighbors like Japan, South Korea, or India. Sputnik, wasn?t much more than a stunt, but the USSR used it to promote themselves as technologically equal, if not superior to the west.
Maybe the best we can hope to get out of this is that the Manned Space Flight Club will be the Nuclear Club of the early part of the 21st century, you are just not a WORLD PLAYER, if you can?t put a man in space.

Posted by Shawn at October 13, 2003 07:49 PM

Perhaps the Chinese will not do something that makes us less apathetic... it's hard to see how their economy can really support the type of effort that would make us sit up and take notice. OTOH, they are taking the first steps that could lead to some momentum. If they make a solid program in which intelligent decisions keep costs down... Who knows what they might accomplish? Who know what effects it will have on the character of their nation or ours?

Who are you more afraid of, Korea with an idiot and a few nukes, or China with a weapons platform or two in orbit? While we might play the blame game about where they got the technology, what happens if they do get into a position where they could apply pressure on some future administration that doesn't have the fortitude to handle it? The stakes are high and dismissing it out of hand may not be the right approach if you'll forgive me for saying so.

I'm of two minds. I like to see more activity in space and I'm worried about the potential fallout.

Posted by ken anthony at October 13, 2003 07:51 PM

Rand's last statement, if one judges the "American psyche" from the content of newspaper op-ed pages, is factually incorrect. Baring unforeseen trouble, this week the Chinese will accomplish something we are currently unable to--launch a human into space.

So, the new space race begins and, as with the last one, we start from behind.

Posted by Mark R. Whittington at October 13, 2003 10:51 PM

And so, Mark, so what? The American op-ed pages said that Gray Davis should remain governor and Arnold remain a movie actor.

Since when did you start interpreting American op-ed pages as representative of the American psyche?

You continue to indulge in wishful thinking.

Posted by Rand Simberg at October 13, 2003 10:54 PM

> And so, Mark, so what?

I'm with Rand on this one...Shenzhou is really a Chinese paper tiger in space. If they were proposing a reusable rapid-access military spaceplane, I certainly would be paying attention. But a warmed-up Soyuz developed by a bunch of Communists is no news at all.

Economically viable colonies or military outposts on Mars or the moon? Shenzhou, Apollo and Soyuz will be utterly useless for that purpose.

> You continue to indulge in wishful thinking.

I'd expect nothing more from him, but I am surprised intelligent people like Dale Amon also fall for the same trap. Wake up guys! Apollo and the Cold War philosophy are dead.

MARCU$

Posted by Marcus Lindroos at October 14, 2003 12:25 AM

I would not be complacent about China's emerging capabilities. They now have the second largest defence budget in the world. True - they can't challenge militarily yet. But it may come. In space they have to start somewhere and the Shenzhou vehicle looks like a well thought out and well designed beginning. They looked long and hard at foreign vehicles, learned from them and then designed their own ship. This is NOT a Soyuz copy - it is a new (and more capable) craft that has borrowed very heavily from Soyuz and the Russian 'simpler is safer' design philosophies. The only outright copied item is the crew's flightsuit. The Long March 2 launch vehicle is proven technology. China is too proud and now too rich and capable to go back out of boundary pushing manned spaceflight once started - as the USA has done. My prediction is that China will push its space programme further than we may think they are now able. Do not be surprised if there are manned lunar or Mars missions in the future.

Posted by Patrick W at October 14, 2003 03:53 AM

Ken Anthony says:

Perhaps the Chinese will not do something that makes us less apathetic... it's hard to see how their economy can really support the type of effort that would make us sit up and take notice. OTOH, they are taking the first steps that could lead to some momentum. If they make a solid program in which intelligent decisions keep costs down... Who knows what they might accomplish? Who know what effects it will have on the character of their nation or ours?

On the other hand, China's economy is considerably larger than Russia's ever was. That indicates to me that they can support quite a space presence even using current technology.

MARCU$ says:

I'm with Rand on this one...Shenzhou is really a Chinese paper tiger in space. If they were proposing a reusable rapid-access military spaceplane, I certainly would be paying attention. But a warmed-up Soyuz developed by a bunch of Communists is no news at all.

That seems pretty short sighted to me. The Soyuz designs are among the best manned vehicle designs out there right now and the Chinese had access to the technology and designs. I doubt the Soyuz designs are public domain unlike the designs for the AK 47 (an assault rifle), but one could do a whole lot worse than to recreate the Soyuz capsule.

Further, why would one start with a reusable military space plane? In today's world, military power isn't as valuable as economic power. For what it's worth, Russia, the US, and the EU have all developed an economic presence in space.

Posted by Karl Hallowell at October 14, 2003 04:38 AM

Rand - You're being silly. Gray Davis has nothing to do with the subject at hand. The Chinese "great leap outward" is a matter of great concern. The Chinese have grasped the fact that space power-economic and political as well as military-is the key to achieving super power dominance in this century. You should not let idealogy blind you to the facts that are in front of you. If we in the West do not act accordingly, then sooner or later we'll be in a great deal of trouble.

Fortunately, I think most people recognize this.

Posted by Mark R. Whittington at October 14, 2003 05:45 AM

Most people are quite effectively ignoring Indian developments too which I find quite amusing.

Posted by Dave at October 14, 2003 06:27 AM

MARCU$ says: "If they were proposing a reusable rapid-access military spaceplane, I certainly would be paying attention."

-especially if they had big headlights, the tail fins of a 57 cadillac, fuzzy dice and a whip antenna? Sorry, I couldn't resist. Respectfully, I think you're missing the big picture. The Chinese are in a position to make a serious and sustained effort. How they do it is just one of the details and I expect they will have some surprises for us.

We've lost our focus (and I'm not particularly suggesting any although I do have an opinion) when at the same time they seem to have developed an agenda and are following it. What is that agenda? Does anybody know? We do tend to play catch up and fortunately we're pretty good at it. But I wouldn't be too proud of our lack of vision (although there are many visions just below the radar.)

Why do we always seem to have to wait until after a disaster occurs before we act? I suspect the only reason China was not included in the Iraq,Iran, Korea speech was because they are the most dangerous of all and we are not in the -logistic- position to confront them at this point (even being a megapower.) But I suspect, sometime, somewhere... these dogs are going to scrap.

Posted by ken anthony at October 14, 2003 08:03 AM

> The Soyuz designs are among the best manned
> vehicle designs out there right now and the
> Chinese had access to the technology and
> designs.

Best manned? Maybe, but that is still beside the point. How will Shenzhou make China any stronger, militarily or economically? Sure, it's going to be a nice excuse for some flag-waving among the Reds but little else.
---
Government-financed spaceflight *is* important. For example, the Chinese might spend more money on surveillance satellites, space-based weapons, improved missiles, communications and navigation satellites. Any of this would be significant and it could have a tangible, adverse impact on U.S. interests in the Far East. But why would three guys studying zero G nausea onboard a space capsule somehow be "strategically important?" Even if they somehow manage to set foot on the Moon one day using similar expendable launchers and capsules, why should we expect it to be any more significant and less of a dead-end than Apollo was? Shouldn't we be grateful they are squandering scarce resources on this, rather than on unmanned military spacecraft?

> The Chinese are in a position to make a serious
> and sustained effort.

How do you know? You imply they have developed an "agenda" and are "following it", there is supposedly a "serious and sustained effort" etc.. Well, you can track their previous and current efforts at http://www.astronautix.com and other good websites. What I see is a relatively modest space program that has launched fewer satellites than ESA or even Japan!! They needed TEN LONG YEARS to develop a warmed-up Soyuz, which suggests they must be really strapped for cash. Heck, if memory serves, the *only* Chinese launch in 2001 was an unmanned Shenzhou. And they have been in the launch business since 1970 so they have a track record. It doesn't sound as if they are about to rule the galaxy.
---
Sorry folks, you can surmise whatever you want but it's all based on intuition, pure speculation and "gut feel" on your part (particularly the strange idea that a Communist economy can generate sufficient wealth and stability to support an ambitious long-term manned interplanetary space exploration program...the Soviets never even came close). If you check what the Chinese actually have accomplished to date and what they say they are about to do, there is nothing revolutionary in the works.

MARCU$

Posted by Marcus Lindroos at October 14, 2003 08:38 AM

Their space program may be a way to prove China is a great power. If so its a far superior method than invading Taiwan.

Does sound like their plans are a little lax if they expect to land on the moon on schedule though.

Posted by ruprecht at October 14, 2003 09:15 AM

MARCU$ says: "why should we expect it to be any more significant and less of a dead-end than Apollo was?"

Let's not ignore context. Apollo only became a dead end as a result of lack of vision or political will. It did the job well and could have lead to new vehicles (actually everything from Mercury on could be considered new vehicles incrementally.)

"...the strange idea that a Communist economy can generate sufficient wealth and stability to support an ambitious long-term manned interplanetary space exploration program..."

It's not strange when you consider that we are going to pay the bill...
Trade balance

You're right that flights of imagination should be avoided, but no imagination is how you lose WTCs. I expect we are much farther along on development of advanced engines, but how fast could you put together a nuclear drive if you aren't worried about government regulations preventing you from moving forward? That alone could put them way ahead of us.

Do we know what the Chinese are developing? Originally everyone assumed they would just copy the Russians outright, but they didn't. I think it's dangerous to get too complacent.

Posted by at October 14, 2003 12:17 PM

I have to admit that some of these "don't underrate the Chinese" comments are reminiscent, to me, of a lot of commentary from people who thought (happily and otherwise) that the victory of Communism over the West was inevitable because Communists were better organized and more committed.

I am no less likely to be in error in this impression than are those on whom I'm commenting, except that I've seen the "Communism will win" point of view proven wrong...

Posted by Kevin McGehee at October 14, 2003 12:18 PM

Maybe this will link to trade balance story

Posted by ken anthony at October 14, 2003 12:23 PM

Kevin makes a good point. My question would be, is it better to overestimate or underestimate?

Posted by ken anthony at October 14, 2003 03:19 PM

In orbit

Posted by ken anthony at October 14, 2003 08:08 PM

The Chinese space effort doesn't have to be totally revolutionary to threaten us. Think satellites that attack other satellites. That could really put a damper on US force projection worldwide, and such a beastie doesn't care how advanced the launch vehicle that lofted it is, so long as it get's to it's orbit.

And the Russians never had cheap CPU's to help out with things generally; the current Chinese technological baseline is much higher than during the Cold War with the Russians.

And don't forget that the nuclear secrets they got our of New Mexico in the last 10 years included W87 warhead data: the kind of stuff you'd want to build an Orion.

Paranoid? Maybe, but we're bankrolling them with trade, something that never happened with Russia. My personal feeling is that we should do much more to help India be a regional counterweight to China.

Posted by David Mercer at October 15, 2003 01:24 AM

> The Chinese space effort doesn't have to be
> totally revolutionary to threaten us. Think
> satellites that attack other satellites. That
> could really put a damper on US force
> projection worldwide, and such a beastie
> doesn't care how advanced the launch vehicle
> that lofted it is, so long as it get's to it's
> orbit.

That is certainly a good point, but I repeat my question: what does Shenzhou have to do with this? The capsule weighs eight tons and has a very limited maneuvering capability since it has to provide life support and return systems for a human crew.

MARCU$

Posted by Marcus Lindroos at October 15, 2003 07:15 AM

But the next series of Long March are claimed to have a LEO lift ability in line with Proton/Ariane5 etc...

If that is the case they will be well places over the 5-10 year timescale.

I don't necessarily see it like that myself, but they are playing a long game on this.

Posted by Dave at October 15, 2003 07:38 AM

When they stop emulating the Russians (and NASA) and start taking their technical lead from the American entrepreneurs, then I'll start to worry.

Given the way China works in other industries they are unlikely to do this until the American Entrepreneurs start showing interesting results.

Then it could be a re-run of the consumer electronics industry.

Although, I'd actually think India would be more likely to move on that technology first.

Posted by Dave at October 17, 2003 02:03 AM


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