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Misleading Economic Indicators
Arnold Kling says that, contrary to official statistics, by unconventional (but probably more useful) measures, we've actually been in a deep recession for a while, and are not coming out soon.
Posted by Rand Simberg at August 08, 2003 12:11 PM
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Comments
Hmmm. Well, given that it's a measure he has come up with, I would like to see more detailed comparisons between the LCUI and other after-the-fact measures of historical economic performance.
I think he may be building his chart on erroneous assumptions.
Posted by Kevin McGehee at August 8, 2003 03:17 PM
Yeah, I'd completely echo Kevin's comment above. This looks like some random made-up indicator with no particular validity or history. I'm no economist, so maybe it's not as bad as it looks, but without seeing a deeper explanation of why this indicator is meaningful or useful, I'd say this guy is just making stuff up.
Posted by Brent M Krupp at August 8, 2003 03:21 PM
It does seem to imply that the economy's at its best during a bubble.
Posted by Mike at August 8, 2003 04:37 PM
Good Point! Saying it's at its best during a bubble is like saying locomotion is easiest immeadiately after stepping over a cliff.
Posted by Mike Puckett at August 9, 2003 07:55 AM
I think the point of the article is to question whether we should measure the health of the economy by the amount of goods produced or by the percentage of people fully employed vs unemployed or under-employed. It's just a new twist on the classic people vs things debate.
Posted by Shawn at August 9, 2003 12:31 PM
Isn't full employment the battle cry of Workd Socialsim?
Did not the mighty U.S.S.R. claim its workers enjoyed full employment even if they could not buy a roll of toilet paper?
Posted by Mike Puckett at August 9, 2003 05:56 PM
Isn't full employment the battle cry of Workd Socialsim?
Did not the mighty U.S.S.R. claim its workers enjoyed full employment even if they could not buy a roll of toilet paper?
Posted by Mike Puckett at August 9, 2003 05:56 PM
If it's this hard to tell if we're in recession, why do we care?
Posted by Bob Hawkins at August 9, 2003 06:49 PM
How long have people been arguing that automation was going to be the death of the working class? The name "Ludd" comes to mind.
Still, this isn't a case of pure people vs. things -- Kling does at least try to meld the two values together in his chart. He's a long, long, long way from coming up with the ideal measure that he seems to want, and he may even be trying to address a lack that doesn't exist.
Posted by Kevin McGehee at August 10, 2003 05:02 AM
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