I suspect that Arnold's announcement has triggered an inexorable sequence of events. Grayout's only hope now is for the courts to save him, and the prospects for that don't look good. The Dems realize this, and now know that they have to have someone on the ballot to save the governor's mansion in Sacramento.

KNX has just announced that Bustamante is running and will announce tomorrow. He makes the most sense for a Dem candidate--he's the guy who the voters already elected to take over if the governor could no longer carry out his duties. He's, in a sense, already acting governor, due to the recall situation, so he can plausibly run as the incumbent, or as close to one as can be had, other than Davis himself.

Only one problem. While he's not as corrupt or nauseating as Davis, he's probably about as dim, and most California Dems know it.

This thing is really a variation on the classic game-theory scenario called the Prisoner's Dilemma.

If you believe that the voters want to keep a Democrat in the governor's office (which, in most California Democrats' conceit, they do), it's in the interests of all the Democrats to cooperate, and not put another Democrat on the ballot. If they do, there will be an attractive alternative for the California electorate to get rid of Davis, because they get to not only toss out the disgusting Davis, who even they hate, but they also get to replace him with different one of their beloved Democrats (you know, the party that's driven the state into a muddy ditch in the past several years).

If a single Democrat breaks ranks, and runs, then he would have a good chance of winning, because the Republican vote will be split among Issa, Scharzenegger, and whatever other Elephant decides to run. But once a single Democrat defects, others will be encouraged to as well, because the game is up, and they can't keep Davis, and may miss their only chance at the governor's mansion (particularly those who've been salivating for it). If they all cooperate, they all win, but someone who defects gets a higher payoff than the prize for cooperating, so once Bustamante makes a formal announcement, expect a Donkey stampede between tomorrow and Saturday evening.

And also expect them to all be "terminated" in October.

[Update on Thursday afternoon]

Issa has announced that he's not running. He says he wants to stay in Congress to see the Middle East "peace process" continue to move forward. One wonders if the White House made him an offer he couldn't refuse (perhaps their support for a Senate run against Boxer next year?).

This is another devastating blow to Governor Low Beam. The Dem story line has been that Issa was just doing this to buy an election, and make himself governor. With Arnold entering, and Issa dropping out, their "Vast Right Wing Conspiracy" hysteria is looking ever more laughable.

The Donkeys have to be in full melt down at this point.

Bad link, Rand. Try here.

So, if Arnold runs as a Democrat, he wins?

On a serious note, Schwarzenegger made his first millions in real estate before he became an actor, so there's no doubt he understands business. He also understands messing with his opponent's head, if you've seen the documentary Pumping Iron. One serious potential pitfall is disillusionment once people realize he's a real person with his own opinions, not the larger-than-life persona they see in the movies.

D'oh!!!!

It wasn't a bad link, it was a non link.

Thanks, I decided to use yours.

Why will Arnold win? I just went over to the DemocraticUnderground discussion boards to see what the leftie tinfoil hat crowd had to say about Arnold.

The worst they've come up with is that he's inexperienced.

If the worst this crowd can come up with against a republican is that he's inexperienced, he'll win in a walk.

Bob

If his running helps increase the odds the recall will succeed, I say more power to Arnold..

He's pro immigrant. He's pro pot (at least he smoked it in Pumping Iron). I've heard he's pro-life and pro-gay. He hits a lot of the special interests without having to sell out to them.

He's also a Republican, but kind of outside the party so if he fails to clean up the CA mess the national party may not suffer much.

Plus he has greater name recognition than Grey Davis.

The other Republican candidates should step back and give Arnold some running room.

The problem is that most Republicans don't consider him any more of a Republican than they did Riordan, for all the reasons you mention (he's also not big on the Second Amendment), so there's going to continue to be pressure for a "real Republican" to run so that the Republicans have someone to vote for. Unfortunately, though, he may be the only kind of Republican that can get elected in twenty-first century California.

I think there are two real pressures over the next days. First, does the party go back to try to get DiFi back in to save things. Failing that, they then have to go to Gray and try to force a resignation, putting Bustamente in office until the next general election (and I think this is Cruz' calculation in getting involved). This election is Ah-nuld's best chance....remember what happened to Riordan in the primaries 18 mos. ago.

Rand I agree the same Republicans that helped torpedo Rierdon will probably be unwilling to vote for Arnold. I'd like to think they would have learned their lesson with Simon (pick a candidate that is electable, not just one that matches your opinions 100%) but I have doubts on that.

It's Arnold's cross-over appeal to center-right Republicans, independents and Democrats that makes him a solid candidate. If the Dems don't break ranks and pubt a Di-Fi or other big name up against him they'll get trounced (even if the Republicans split the vote 3 or 4 ways).

Which is exactly why the party elders are going have to get Davis to get out of Dodge.

As for the Republicans in this state, they've clearly demonstrated a propensity for snatching defeat from the jaws of victory.

Keep in mind the game theory may be going on on both sides of the aisle. If either Simon or McClintock opts out along with Issa, that may allow the surviving conservative to corner the 30% or so hardcore conservative vote, leaving roughly the same for Ahnuld. Meanwhile will the Dems be able to coalesce around Bustamante? We'll see how much impact the primary process really has. As for me, I'm with Ahnuld. He's a true Friedmanite on economics and is younger, smarter, and less of a loose cannon than Riordan was with a less objectionable demwife to boot. I'll sacrifice the social issues and enjoy the fireworks.

I do not believe there is an actual primary process in the recall election. It's everyone on the ballot at once. So even if Arnold loses 305 of the Republican vote he can win if he picks up the independents and some Democrats.

I don't think either Simon or McClintock can pull off many non-Republican votes.