Sacramento Bee reporter Dan Weintraub has a theory.

I think it's a good one. And by the way, if you want to stay in touch with what's going on with the recall, and California politics in general, you could do a lot worse than staying on top of Weintraub's blog.

It's nice to see the Bee on the cutting edge of journalism, by not being threatened by blogging on the part of their reporters.

I think the theory is sound as well. If Riordan runs then Arnold can make a big splash by stepping aside and committing himself to Riordan. Hopefully this would give Riordan a bit of a push.

I think Arnold is also wary of being in the center of a pack of Republicans, each splitting the conservative vote even further.

And not only about blogging in the "routine update" mode, but blogging in the "generous links" mode --- Weintraub gets it, big time.

Another factor is that he has a hit movie again with Terminator 3, which will probably lead to continued leading man work for him. (Rumor has it there is a King Conan script waiting for a green light based on the T3 box office.) If T3 had bombed, he might have been relegated to second-tier movies, and a backup career would have been more attractive.

I was a big fan of conan when I was younger. I don't think King Conan is the right move to relight his career. I think he should be doing True Lies 2 which is another film mentioned as a possibility.

Another consideration might be that the situation in CA has deteriorated well past the point of repair without some extremely unpleasant (and politically damaging) initiatives. Hence winning would be something of a poisoned chalice, as whoever does get the governor's office (Davis is toast) only get to acquire dominion over the wreckage.

Better to simply wait this out, and run in '06. Whoever is elected this time around will be ruined by then....