Mark Steyn, who's been observing from across the border in New Hampshire for years, says that Howard Dean (sadly, for those Bushophiles who'd love to see him as an opponent) won't survive the south.

Another one that makes you wonder just how Steyn does it. I love: "As for the man with the plain-spoken candour of John McCain and the electability of Bill Clinton, before it?s over it?ll be looking more like the electability of John McCain and the plain-spoken candour of Bill Clinton."

> To most people in Bush-voting states, Vermont is a province of Canada and, unlike the kinky maple fetishist Paul Robinson and his commissioning editors at The Spectator, they don?t mean that in a good way.

Steyn is wrong on this point. Americans mostly don't know, or care, about Vermont. The most commonly known Vermont factoid is that it has little/no state level gun control.

That factoid can be a huge plus for Dean with certain folks who Bush would like to take for granted, folks who Bush has annoyed recently without getting any benefit in return. Many of these folks will crawl over broken glass to vote. Not a few of these are looking for an excuse to vote Dem. (They're natural Dem voters, except for one issue.)

Remember why Gore lost Tennessee....

The most commonly known Vermont factoid is that it has little/no state level gun control.

Oh yes, that was ALL OVER the news channels within the living memory of people who'll be voting next year. I remember it well. </sarcasm>

No, Andy -- most people, especially in the Democratic Party, think "civil unions" when they think of Vermont. Dean is toast.

> Oh yes, that was ALL OVER the news channels within the living memory of people who'll be voting next year.

News channels aren't the only information source. Also, "living memory" isn't just the last year or two.

I've surveyed the subpopulation of interest - they're mostly unaware of civil unions. However, they're quite aware of Vermont's gun laws.

If Dean can keep the gun-control Dems quiet (or if he picks a fight with them, like Clinton and Sister Souljah), he's got a good chance of picking up a significant fraction of the pro-gun voters. That can make a huge difference in the South.