Steven den Beste has been on a roll lately, as exemplified by this exposition on battle tactics and strategies and the value of wargaming.

While it's all good, this part jumped out at me:

...One of the interesting things about a lot of these principles is that when they happen some people not truly versed in the art of war will assume that they indicate failure. When a plan breaks down and the officers start to improvise, when things don't go the way they are expected to, when someone cannot say ahead of a battle exactly how it will come out, then they portray this as a failure of the command structure, and perhaps as an argument against fighting the war at all. For instance, one argument voiced by many about the prospect of our attacking Iraq is that by so doing we may throw the whole region into chaos.

Well, yes. We might. But while that's a factor to be taken into account, it isn't necessarily a fatal objection. When I'm playing Go against a player who is substantially inferior to me, who plays with a handicap, sometimes when I see a situation I don't like what I'll do is to make a series of moves which make the situation fantastically complicated even if I can't see where it will end up. What I'm relying on is the fact that as it develops I'll be able to use my superior understanding of the game and ability to analyze it to see my way through the situation before my less experienced opponent, and will have the situation in hand before he even realizes what I'm doing.

To some extent this happens in every war. No-one can ever predict at the beginning of the war the timetable for victory, or even where all the battles will take place. The Allies didn't decide on an attack on Sicily (nor where on Sicily) in WWII until after the combat in North Africa was largely finished. It wasn't the only possible choice, by any means. For instance, an attack on Sardinia might have provided well-placed airfields for heavy bombers which would have given them the ability to reach all of Italy and France and even southern Germany.

War is inherently chaotic, but you can use that against your enemy if you're better at it than he is...

This is one aspect of a couple of things that folks in the blogosphere (and other places) have been saying over the past few months.

One is that Foggy Bottom's (and Whitehall's) elevation of stability in the Middle East to the highest value is preventing us from doing what needs to be done (and was the cause of our failure to remove Saddam the last time, and our treachery toward the Kurds and others who wanted to, and probably could have, overthrown him then). A chaotic situation with prospects for improvement is superior to a disastrous status quo, which is what we have now.

The other thing that it reminds me of is one of Rumsfeld's laws. When a problem seems intractable, enlarge it. That's probably the only way out of the mess in Israel.

It seems that Mr. den Beste is describing the concept of "getting inside your opponent's decision loop". If battle is a repetitive process of "decide, initiate, evaluate", and one side is faster at this process than the other, the battle, and war, will eventually go their way.

Regards,

American military can do the job. It's the political will that seems to get hung up. We're not LBJ's America, anymore! And, the citizens have been ready since 9/11. HOWEVER, Bush is playing an interesting political game. Anti-LBJ. In other words, he's making it look that the arabs hold the aces, and he's at this poker table, faking a very bad hand. And, taking his time, to boot! I really think he's gonna put his cards on the table very soon. (Especially since he has developed a terrific relationship with Sharon in Israel. And, when "Sharon promises, he delivers." That's a quote out of our president's mouth. Sharon's restraint, after Sunday's terror attacks that looked like a military attempt to hit from "every direction" ... with things heating up and getting worse, may be due to Saddam playing his cards through the Palestinians. And, yes, I really think if Sharon had hit back hard then Syria and Lebanon would start throwing in big missile attacks at Israeli centers. Given that the media coverage would be there, then the stakes go up for covert activity that may be going on in Iraq as "we speak." Bush doesn't want this. Our military wants to stay focussed ... and, doesn't it seem to you that Sharon has given this approach his approval? SO? So, Saddam is holding back and not doing anything that would cause anyone to think he's taking the "first shot." Anyway, "speed" may be inconsequential ... once you pit the firepower of America and OUR ability to come in from every direction, including UP ABOVE (Air) and from far away (missiles). Tridents. Blu-118's. You name it. Speed? Well, what if we've been building our arsenal? Right now all the chiefs of staff are on board Bush's plans. And, things seem quiet before the storm. When was the last time you heard the UN or the EU, or the arabs, ask for the 3-years guarantee to a Palestinian State? You think those folks want us to belly up to the table with the cards I think our president has been holding in his very calm hands? (Some day that may be Bush's greatest moment. Laying the cards down. I mean. The gesture is perfect. Like a president in a wheelchair directing WW2 to a successful conclusion. Years and years of knowing how the citizens love to watch the skill of the "bluff.") Let's hope victory is swift once it's starts ... Why? Because the devastation belongs to the arabs and their sandy surroundings. Russia's gotta love the shot it takes at the thorns in their own backsides ... now that the Soviets can't control their own disparate populations. We may be a long way from home, but I think we're gonna pack a hell of a whallop ... and by Labor Day I think the American flags are gonna be flying again, from vehicles all over this country. Bush has got to recapture his momentum ... the one given to him by ALL the people across our Fruited Plain. Our Spacious SKies. And Purple Mountains Majestie. Sure will be nice to stop beating ourselves up. And, turning on the enemy.