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« Delusions, Optimism And Gambling | Main | Basketball And Astronauts »

Human Extinction

Instantman points out a link to the Voluntary Human Extinction movement.

The funny thing is, that these folks seem to be getting their wish. Current demographic trends indicate that the global human population will peak a little later this century, and then start to shrink. This is because industrialized societies tend to have fewer children--reduced infant and child mortality, and the diminished need of them for subsistence labor, act to reduce optimal family size. This trend will accelerate if we bring the third world into the second and first.

Much of Europe and Japan are already below replacement rate, which is a major problem for their government pension systems.

Of course, it only takes one group, like the Mormons, who decide that it's their religious duty to procreate, to cause an expansion of that group, whether on world, or off. But the next century could also bring transhumans of various varieties, which may have much longer lifespans, or be effectively immortal.

Neither the UN, or the Voluntary Extincters take this possibility (probability?) into consideration.

Posted by Rand Simberg at June 05, 2002 01:53 PM
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Game theory suggests that "Voluntary Human Extinction" as a political movement has a big problem, which was best addressed by the classic Warner Bros cartoon characters the Goofy Gophers, or "Mac" and "Tosh."

http://members.tripod.com/~Nymh/goph.html

"After you."

"No, I insist, after_you._"

"Tut, tut. Wouldn't hear of it... After you."

Posted by Ken Barnes at June 6, 2002 05:13 AM

My answer to such types has always been, "You go first and let us know how it works out."

It comes as no surprise that most of the leaders of groups like PETA and Earth First! who've spoken positively of this idea are childless. It's easy to favor a biosphere over people when your line ends with yourself. This dovetails well with the evidence that hunters are more genuinely concerned and proactive about conservation than any vegan.

Parenthood: the truest source of concern for the biosphere.

Posted by Eric Pobirs at June 9, 2002 12:49 AM


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