Den Beste has a great post on how willing we should be to delude ourselves.

There's one other point, that he hints at but doesn't quite make explicitly.

People who say "I never gamble" are also deluding themselves. We all gamble, every day, indeed, every second. The decision to get out of bed, or even take the next breath, is a gamble.

The risk is that there's some toxic substance in the air. The payoff is oxygen, so you can continue to make new wagers.

The goal is not to figure out how to avoid gambling--that's not going to happen this side of the grave. The goal should be to make sure that the odds aren't stacked against you, as they are in almost all explicit "gambling," as practiced in Indian casinos and Las Vegas.

Actually, this is the link:

http://denbeste.nu/cd_log_entries/2002/06/Thecriticalquestion.shtml

Doh!

I always get that confused on your site. I don't know if it's the site design, or just me. (Most likely a combination).

It should be correct now.