I’m back in California, for two or three days, prior to heading off to Missouri and Michigan for a week or so. Still recombobulating, but I’ll get some readable posts up a little later today. Trip back from San Juan was uneventful, except for a random wanding in Dallas. I retained the presence of mind not to tell them what I thought of the procedures. It wouldn’t have done any good anyway–they’re just doing their (stupid) job.

My email box is scorching over my inadvertent libel of bourbon and Kentucky. Several gentlemen (and at least one bellicose pistol-packin’ momma) have drawled into their keyboards, “Ah demand satisfaction, suh…”

Well, not that I would hesitate to die on the field of honor, but I fear that, being so well loved down here, it might set off another international incident that could result in a renewal of the tensions of the Recent Unpleasantness, except this time between Caribbean rum partisans and regional bourbon connoisseurs, and I wouldn’t want to be responsible for that!

So, I think I’ll go off to St. Thomas for the weekend until the passions of my beloved brethren from just below the Mason-Dixon line (instead of waaaaaaay below, like me) have had time to temper and cool.

This is a slightly-hyperbolic and apocryphal way of saying that my posts will be sparse or non-existent for the next three days, after which I’ll be back in California, whereupon I can once again become a partisan for wine…

Tony Andragna comments:

Unless you can convince me that an anti-missile defense system would be 100% effective in operation, then I’m not comfortable with it’s utility – even one missile getting through would result in deaths to numerous to write-off as an “acceptable failure rate”.

Even accepting your premise that we can’t make a leak-proof defense (we can, at least against anyone except Russia, and eventually, we can defend against them as well–it’s just a matter of building enough redundancy into the system), would you prefer that all missiles get through, instead of only one? That’s the consequence of having no defense, which is where we’re at right now.

I think that you’re assuming that if we don’t build a defense, they (any they) won’t build missiles. What is the basis for that assumption? In fact, building a missile defense reduces the utility of building missiles, since it minimizes or zeros their value.

There are obviously a lot of implicit assumptions in this statement, but debate over these issues has been going on for literally decades, and there is a vast literature available on it, including extensive game theory analysis. You (and many readers) may not be familiar with it, but it’s been argued into the ground, though there remains no consensus.

My experience is that ultimately (and I’m not accusing you of this), the most die-hard opponents oppose it not because it won’t work, but because it will, and the arguments are just rationalizations for their positions. They are uncomfortable with the United States being “too powerful.” Madeleine Albright herself fell into this camp, of guilt over being the only remaining superpower.

People have been saying that the Osama home video couldn’t have been done by Hollywood, because the quality is too poor. But that just proves how clever those Zionist film producers are–they knew that if they did it too well, that many would suspect that it was a forgery, so they deliberately did it badly…

By the way, I thought that that I’d seen the ultimate in pathetic koolaid drinkers during the OJ trial and Clinton impeachment, but these people they have to dredge up to defend Moussaoui et al raise the pathos to new heights. They just had a woman on Fox News being grilled by Linda Vester. “Anyone can take flying lessons–is that a crime?” “I have seen no proof that he was being sent money.” etc.

Reader Andy Freeman opines via email:

The phrase “northern CA” is geographically unfortunate. The real dividing line in CA runs north/south, between the coast and the rest. (SF is really just LA with hills and the smugness born

of inferiority and backwards-looking.)

Hmmmm… I suspect you’re in for a lot of angry hate email from the Bay-Area types. Lucky I didn’t provide your address…

Sacramento’s problem is that it is a capital of a state that includes LA, SF, SJ.

True, but that’s true of any state with both rural and big-city areas. You could say that Albany’s problem is that it is a capital of a state that includes NYC, or Lansing’s problem is that it is the capital of a state that includes Detroit. My point was just that–that people’s lives in the hinterlands are run by bureaucrats and legislators elected by the cities. My problem with doing an east-west split is that I like the northern coast (above Bodega Bay). Actually what would make the most sense to me is a southern coastal California (dominated by San Diego-LA metroplex), a Central Coastal California (managed by the Bay Area), an inland California (consisting of the deserts and the Sierra) and a true northern California. Then you’d have two city states, and two rural states.

Some great stuff at Andrew Hofer’s site today. I particularly enjoyed the social commentary on Winona Ryder. It’s Iowahawk class.

At some point, I was going to get around to commenting on Tony Andragna’s unjustified skepticism over our technical ability to defend ourselves against missiles, but Will Vehrs beat me to it in the same archive.

Many look at the test failures (and ignore the successes) so far and conclude that it’s Just Too Hard.

That’s extremely myopic. If we’d had the same attitude early in the missile program in the late fifties, we would have neither missiles nor a space program–launch failures were a regular and discouraging occurrence (remember post-Sputnik panic from the book, “The Right Stuff”? “Our rockets always blow up”).

Most technical arguments against missile defense (by people like Dick Garwin, Kosta Tsipis, et al) are of the form:

Here is how I think a missile defense would work (i.e., set up strawman).

I’m really smart, and if I can’t think up ways around these problems, neither can anyone else (thereby knocking the straw out of the man).

While there have been some sincere, and even good arguments against missile defense, most are of the disingenuous variety described above. Will’s right–if we can land a man on the moon, we can (eventually) defend ourselves against missiles. We can quickly come up with a defense against North Korean missiles. It would take a little longer to come up with a defense against Chinese, or even Russian missiles, but we can do it if we need to. The Soviets knew this, which is one of the primary reasons that they threw in the towel. Ultimately, defense is favored in economic terms for two reasons. The first is that for any intelligently-designed system, the kill vehicle is cheaper than the offensive warhead, on the margin. The second is that, even if this is not the case, and the marginal costs of defense are greater than the marginal costs of offense, we’re a lot richer than our adversaries, and will remain so for some time, so we can afford to outspend them–it’s still cheaper for us in terms of percentage GDP. Again, the Soviets recognized this.

It should also be noted (as Don Rumsfeld did the other day) that while there are game-theoretical arguments to be made for both cases (that defense will encourage an offensive arms race, and that defense will suppress one), the empirical evidence is in. For the thirty years that we had the ABM treaty, missile inventories were growing like mushrooms after a spring rain, unchecked by ABM treaties or (on the Soviet side) even by arms-control treaties. But in the past few years, and particularly in the past year, despite, or more likely because of, all the talk about scrapping the ABM treaty, we are reducing inventories.

But whether or not it will defend against a Russian onslaught is not a relevant issue to current decisions. Regardless of one’s view of its morality (mine is dim), an argument can be made that MAD is stable in a bi-polar world. Such an argument falls apart in a multi-polar world, and it just becomes a matter of time until some dictator with bin-Laden ethics and intelligence (re: intelligence–that’s not a compliment) flunks Game Theory 101 and decides to lob something at us. In such an event, just as with the gun-control debate in general, as an engineer, I’ll trust hardware over paper every time.

And Will, the actual expression, post Apollo, among space policy enthusiasts is “If we can put a man on the Moon, why can’t we put a man on the Moon?” Realistically, right now it would take us longer to put a man on the Moon than it did in 1960 (at least as a government effort). It’s not because we don’t have the technology…

More Afghan unhappiness over being colonized by Arabs is expressed in this article from the Boston Globe.

When Kandaharis first got used to seeing Arabs in their city several years ago, he said, ”we thought they were just mujahideen [anti-Soviet holy warriors], innocent people. Then when we heard our new government was called `The Islamic Emirate of Afghanistan,’ we knew it had become the country of Osama bin Laden.”

Shah Wali, a 21-year-old neighbor who memorizes the Koran at a religious seminary, shook his head when he was shown a paper calling for war by all Muslims against all non-Muslims. ”Even if they say this is a jihad [holy war], why didn’t they do it in their country, Saudi Arabia,” he asked, ”instead of ruining ours?”

I don’t recall an explanation of this in Osama’s video. I also didn’t hear him asking “Why do they hate us?”

The article also discusses a lot of evidence discovered of generalized plans for terrorist activities over here, along with an inventory of US naval assets and locations.

More Afghan unhappiness over being colonized by Arabs is expressed in this article from the Boston Globe.

When Kandaharis first got used to seeing Arabs in their city several years ago, he said, ”we thought they were just mujahideen [anti-Soviet holy warriors], innocent people. Then when we heard our new government was called `The Islamic Emirate of Afghanistan,’ we knew it had become the country of Osama bin Laden.”

Shah Wali, a 21-year-old neighbor who memorizes the Koran at a religious seminary, shook his head when he was shown a paper calling for war by all Muslims against all non-Muslims. ”Even if they say this is a jihad [holy war], why didn’t they do it in their country, Saudi Arabia,” he asked, ”instead of ruining ours?”

I don’t recall an explanation of this in Osama’s video. I also didn’t hear him asking “Why do they hate us?”

The article also discusses a lot of evidence discovered of generalized plans for terrorist activities over here, along with an inventory of US naval assets and locations.

More Afghan unhappiness over being colonized by Arabs is expressed in this article from the Boston Globe.

When Kandaharis first got used to seeing Arabs in their city several years ago, he said, ”we thought they were just mujahideen [anti-Soviet holy warriors], innocent people. Then when we heard our new government was called `The Islamic Emirate of Afghanistan,’ we knew it had become the country of Osama bin Laden.”

Shah Wali, a 21-year-old neighbor who memorizes the Koran at a religious seminary, shook his head when he was shown a paper calling for war by all Muslims against all non-Muslims. ”Even if they say this is a jihad [holy war], why didn’t they do it in their country, Saudi Arabia,” he asked, ”instead of ruining ours?”

I don’t recall an explanation of this in Osama’s video. I also didn’t hear him asking “Why do they hate us?”

The article also discusses a lot of evidence discovered of generalized plans for terrorist activities over here, along with an inventory of US naval assets and locations.