Category Archives: Uncategorized

Overreach

Airbus made a dumb bet. It thought that what the world’s airlines wanted was bigger airplanes. What they’d really like, of course, is economic supersonic aircraft, but none (or, should I say, neither?) of the major aircraft manufacturers understand the problem well enough to go after that market.

Now, it turns out that, for some strange reason, their customers (and their customers’ customers, the actual passengers) didn’t want airplanes that took a humungous amount of time to board and unboard, and wouldn’t fit in many of the existing terminal gates. Not to mention how attractive a target a 900-passenger aircraft would be to a terrorist…

Somehow, while Boeing hasn’t been impressive in the commercial air industry as of late, I don’t think that they would have made a marketing blunder like this, if for no other reason than, well…they haven’t. They’ve been looking into more economical smaller planes instead (though they still don’t understand the supersonic issues). Only a quasi-government aircraft company like Airbus could get way with a dumb decision like this one, and I suspect that they’ll be bailed out of any negative consequences.

RLV Potpourri

Clark Lindsey has a lot of good stuff today over at RLV news, including SpaceShipOne’s first in-flight test of their rocket engine, the SpaceX extravaganza in Washington, and some promising developments by the Japanese (perhaps I was a little too hasty in dissing them–we’ll see if they allow this effort to flower).

I do want to clarify one point, though.

…I’m sure that Elon would agree with Rand Simberg and others who say that man-rating is an obsolete term. All vehicles should be built to the highest degree to not fail, regardless of whether the payload includes people or not.

To be precise, all reusable vehicles should be built to the highest degree not to fail. Optimal reliability for an expendable is an economic trade based on payload value and insurance rates, so it may still make sense to talk about man or (to use the current PC NASA term) human rating of the Delta IV and Atlas V for OSP. It’s pretty clear, at least to me, that for a number of reasons, neither of those vehicles are going to be usable off the shelf for that mission, despite public impressions to the contrary.