Category Archives: Technology and Society

New IFT-7 Schedule

From SpaceX: “SpaceX is targeting Thursday, January 16 for the seventh flight test of Starship from Starbase in Cameron County, Texas. The 60-minute test window opens at 4:00 p.m. CT. “

[Thursday-afternoon update]

[Friday-morning update]

[Bumped]

Alternate Lunar Architectures

I just asked Grok how we could get back to the Moon if SLS/Orion were canceled. Its response:

If the Space Launch System (SLS) and Orion spacecraft were to be canceled, alternative architectures for getting Americans back to the Moon would need to leverage existing or soon-to-be-developed technology from both NASA and the private sector. Here are several conceptual architectures:
1. SpaceX Starship Architecture:

  • Launch Vehicle: Use SpaceX’s Starship, which is designed for full reusability and can carry significant payloads to the Moon.
    • Mission Profile: Direct to the Moon:
      • Starship would launch from Earth, perform a trans-lunar injection, and either land directly on the Moon or rendezvous with a lunar lander in lunar orbit.
      • For a direct landing, Starship would serve as both the orbiter and lander, potentially refueling in Earth orbit before departure or using in-situ resource utilization (ISRU) on the Moon for return fuel.
  • Benefits:
    • High payload capacity.
    • Reusability could significantly reduce costs per mission.
    • Potential for rapid mission tempo due to the frequent availability of Starship.
  • Challenges:
    • Development and operational risks associated with new technology.
    • Need for extensive on-orbit refueling capabilities.

2. NASA’s Commercial Lunar Payload Services (CLPS) with Crew:

  • Concept: Adapt CLPS for crewed missions by integrating human-rated systems into existing or future lunar landers.
    • Launch: Use multiple launches with existing or new commercial rockets like Falcon Heavy, Vulcan Centaur, or New Glenn to assemble components in Low Earth Orbit (LEO) or directly send to the Moon.
    • Lander: Use landers developed by companies like Blue Origin (Blue Moon), Dynetics, or others that could be adapted for human missions.
  • Benefits:
    • Leverages existing contracts and partnerships.
    • Encourages competition and innovation in the private sector.
  • Challenges:
    • Integrating human safety protocols into primarily cargo-focused designs.
    • Coordination of multiple launches and in-space assembly.

3. Modular Approach with Gateway or Lunar Orbit:

  • Gateway Station: Use a lunar Gateway as a staging point, which could be launched by existing or upcoming heavy-lift rockets.
    • Launch: Various rockets could lift parts of the Gateway, landers, and crew modules to LEO or directly to the Moon’s orbit.
    • Crew Transport: Crew could be sent to the Gateway via a human-rated commercial spacecraft (like Crew Dragon or Starliner), then transfer to a lunar lander for descent.
  • Benefits:
    • Reduces the need for a single massive rocket by using multiple launches.
    • Provides a platform for testing technologies for Mars missions.
  • Challenges:
    • Increased complexity with multiple vehicles and rendezvous operations in space.
    • Higher dependency on in-space assembly and refueling.

4. International Collaboration:

  • Partnership: Collaborate with international partners like ESA, JAXA, or Roscosmos, utilizing their launch capabilities or spacecraft technology.
    • Launch: Use Ariane, H-IIA/H-IIB, or Soyuz rockets for components, with American rockets for the crew module.
    • Lander: Potentially use or co-develop a lunar lander with international partners.
  • Benefits:
    • Shared costs and risks.
    • Enhanced international cooperation, potentially leading to broader space exploration initiatives.
  • Challenges:
    • Political and diplomatic complexities.
    • Technical integration of different national spacecraft systems.

5. Hybrid Approach:

  • Mixed Fleet: Use a combination of existing rockets for different mission segments. For instance, one rocket for the crew, another for the lander, and yet another for logistics.
    • Mission Profile: Crew could launch on a proven vehicle, dock with a lander in orbit (launched separately), and proceed to the Moon.
  • Benefits:
    • Flexibility in mission planning.
    • Utilizes the strengths of various commercial rocket providers.
  • Challenges:
    • Coordination and timing of multiple launches.
    • Increased operational complexity.

Each of these architectures would need to consider factors like cost, safety, timeline, and the strategic goals of returning to the Moon, such as establishing a sustainable presence, scientific research, or setting the stage for Mars missions. The choice would also depend on the evolution of technology and the political and budgetary environment at the time of decision-making.

New Glenn Delay

From Blue Origin: “Sea state conditions are still unfavorable for booster landing. We’re shifting our NG-1 launch date by one day to no earlier than January 13. Our three-hour window remains the same, opening Monday at 1 a.m. EST (0600 UTC).”

So that means that both New Glenn and Starship 7 could occur on the same day.

[Update late Sunday evening in CA]

Launch in 20 minutes.

Maybe. They keep moving the clock. But their window will expire in an hour or so, I think.

[Bumped]

Three Days?

There are people who don’t have three days of canned food? We could go a month, not because we’re survivalists, but because we shop at Costco. Maybe it’s a European thing?

Tech, And Immigration

Thoughts from Eric Raymond:

Merry Christmas To All

Sorry for the radio silence, but my computer was down, and most of the day was spent sorting it out. Some may recall that my second monitor stopped displaying a while ago, and I finally decided that there must have been some software change in a Fedora kernel that was causing the problem in an admittedly old video card. So I broke down and ordered a new one for about a hundred bucks.

So I replace the card, and on first starting the machine, I get three long beeps, which on MSI motherboards indicates a memory issue. I unseated and reseated the memory sticks, and that problem went away. But the machine wouldn’t boot, or even POST. I know there was power to the card because the fans were spinning, but no signal was going to the monitors. I tried removing and reseating the card, but no joy.

So I decided to put the old card back in and see if I’d done something new to the machine to make it not POST, but it booted fine. And not only that, but it woke up with both monitors. So I seem to have somehow unknowingly solved the problem, but now I’ll have to RMA the new card. Which is somewhat disappointing, because I was looking forward to a video upgrade. Though, to be honest, I’m not sure I would have seen any difference for anything I do, which is mostly write, spreadsheet, and web surf.

And of course, in the process of doing that, I’ve developed a new problem, in VirtualBox, which I need to run Windows for running my trading platform. When I try to boot Windows, I get:

“VirtualBox can’t enable the AMD-V extension. Please disable the KVM kernel extension, recompile your kernel and reboot (VERR_SVM_IN_USE).”

I did a search, but none of the offered solutions seem to do anything (No, I haven’t tried a complete uninstall/reinstall, or kernel recompile, because I was hoping for something that was less of a PITA).

We’re doing a rib roast with lobster tails for Christmas dinner, and I’m getting fatigued from the Christmas music, but it’s the only thing we can agree on to watch. There is a “A Christmas Story” marathon on one channel, and a “Die Hard” marathon on another one, so we may break down and watch one or both of them. Anyway, plenty of Christmas fare over at Glenn’s place.

[Thursday-afternoon update]

Interesting discussion in comments. The only reason I’m running a Windows virtual machine is to run ThinkorSwim. If I can do that on Fedora proper, that would be a vastly superior solution, so I wouldn’t have to mess with either VirtualBox or Windows. And according to this, it can be done. So maybe I’ll shift my efforts from fixing Vbox and instead making that happen.

[Update a few minutes later]

Wow, that was almost painless. I just installed it with flatpak, and it’s running on my second monitor. Bye bye VirtualBox and Windows.