Category Archives: Space

We Don’t Know As Much As We Think We Do

One of the issues with building reusable space transports are those of maintenance and inspection. The Shuttle is a nightmare in terms of the things that have to be done to it between flights, and the question arises–is this intrinsic to reusable orbital launch systems, or was it a bad design? It’s some of both, but mostly the latter. The development budget for the Shuttle was severely constrained, resulting in a lot of design decisions that proved to be very costly down the road, when it came to operating it. And the technology at the time the design was frozen (early seventies) is three decades behind ours of today.

A major issue is inspecting structure for fatigue between flights. We have quite a bit of experience with aluminum and other metals, and their behavior after repeated stress, and we know how to inspect for it. But one of the ways that we hope to get launch costs down in the future is to shift from metal structure to composites, which are much lighter for a given level of strength. That’s an area that we understand much less well, as demonstrated by the fact that rudders are, apparently inexplicably, falling off of Airbuses:

Composites are made of hundreds of layers of carbon fibre sheeting stuck together with epoxy resin. Each layer is only strong along the grain of the fibre. Aircraft engineers need to work out from which directions loads will come, then lay the sheets in a complex, criss-cross pattern. If they get this wrong, a big or unexpected load might cause a plane part to fail.

It is vital there are no kinks or folds as the layers are laid, and no gaps in their resin coating. Holes between the layers can rapidly cause extensive “delamination” and a loss of stiffness and strength.

Airbus, together with aviation authorities on both sides of the Atlantic, insists that any deterioration of a composite part can be detected by external, visual inspection, a regular feature of Airbus maintenance programmes, but other experts disagree.

In an article published after the flight 587 crash, Professor James Williams of the Massachusetts Institute of Technology, one of the world’s leading authorities in this field, said that to rely on visual inspection was “a lamentably naive policy. It is analogous to assessing whether a woman has breast cancer by simply looking at her family portrait.”

Williams and other scientists have stated that composite parts in any aircraft should be tested frequently by methods such as ultrasound, allowing engineers to “see” beneath their surface. His research suggests that repeated journeys to and from the sub-zero temperatures found at cruising altitude causes a build-up of condensation inside composites, and separation of the carbon fibre layers as this moisture freezes and thaws. According to Williams, “like a pothole in a roadway in winter, over time these gaps may grow”.

Commenting on the vanishing rudder on flight 961, he pointed out that nothing was said about composite inspection in the NTSB’s report on flight 587. This was an “unfortunate calamity”, he said. Although the flight 961 rupture had yet be analysed, he continued to believe Airbus’s maintenance rules were “inadequate”, despite their official endorsement.

Barbara Crufts, an Airbus spokesperson, said visual inspections were “the normal procedure” and insisted Williams’s case was unproven. “You quote him as an expert. But there are more experts within the manufacturers and the certification authorities who agree with these procedures.” She disclosed that the aircraft used in flight 961 — which entered service in 1991 — had been inspected five days before the incident. She said did not know if the rudder had been examined.

How applicable is this cautionary tale to the design of space transports? Well somewhat, but not quite as much as one might think. Fatigue is (usually) a phenomenon that occurs as a result of a large number of cycles (assuming that the stress is reasonable–obviously, one can fatigue a paper clip to failure in just a few extreme twists back and forth with a pair of pliers). It’s a real concern for aircraft that are in the air a lot, with many takeoffs and landings, and continuous buffeting from the air.

A space transport has two things going for it. First of all, it spends little time in the atmosphere, which is where most of the structural stress occurs, at least that due to aerodynamics. In space, it’s actually a quite benign environment, from a structural standpoint. Second, if we ever get to the number of flights of a single space transport that even start to approach the cycle life of an air transport, we’ll have clearly solved the problem of space access, even if we occasionally (as in the aircraft industry) lose a vehicle to structural fatigue.

But regardless of what this means for spaceship design, I think that Airbus has some big problems, until they understand this issue better. And now that Boeing is also using composites for primary structure, they need to get on top of it as well.

A New NASA Administrator

It’s apparently going to be Mike Griffin. Mike is a sharp guy technically (probably the best in that regard in NASA history, if he’s confirmed), but I think that this is good news/bad news. I’ll explain why later, but I’m swamped right now.

Barrier To Entry

T/SPACE is finding the paperwork involved in performing a NASA contract too onerous:

“NASA wants 40 to 50 monthly reports on what you’re doing,” David Gump, president of the Transformational Space consortium told New Scientist on Monday. And while “we could build a great Crew Exploration Vehicle”, Gump says, the consortium cannot comply with the reports and studies NASA stipulates to monitor the project.

This is one of the reasons that space hardware costs so much. In order to perform a government contract, you have to bear the overhead of the contract specialists, accounting people, etc., above and beyond that necessary to just build the hardware. In addition, all of the status reports and reviews tend to chew up a lot of the time of the engineers and managers who are preparing them rather than doing engineering.

In theory, T/SPACE could hire the necessary additional staff in order to meet the contractual requirements, but it dramatically changes the corporate culture to do so. I can understand their reluctance. And as a result, it’s almost inevitable that the two CEV contracts will go to two of the usual suspects, with the usual high costs.

Thus shall it be until we develop a robust commercial space industry.

[Evening update]

Keith Cowing has a different take on it:

Yawn. When the going gets tough, blame it all on paperwork.

Visualization

Jack Benny used to say about a fellow comedian that “nobody knew what a cramp looked like until Fred Allen was born.” Well, along those lines, Jeff Foust can now point at a physical instantiation of a budgetary earmark.

“I Want A Moon Base”

Whatever the merits of the case, Walt would seem to have a novel defense for his tax avoidance:

He was going to use the money to change the world. To fight for arms control and human rights. To promote family planning and space exploration. He was going to give the money away, starting next year…

… Anderson was one of the driving forces behind MirCorp, which sought to privatize Russia’s decrepit Mir space station and arranged for an American financier to take an excursion in space. MirCorp’s ambitions were dashed with the station’s demise.

But Anderson has remained passionate about space. “I want to build my own space station since we lost the Mir,” he said. “I want to have a moon base.”

It also has some interesting quotes from Jeff Manber and Bob Werb.

I believe him. Unfortunately, the government doesn’t view that as a good reason to stash funds overseas.

It would be nice if we could get some philanthropy going in this area from some less flaky sources. One of the reasons that we’ve made so little progress is that the people with the money aren’t interested in space, and the people interested in space haven’t had the money, and when on the rare occasion you get someone with both, there’s some other problem. I hope that the Paul Allens and Jeff Bezos’ of the world will start to change that.

NASA Watch has links to this and related stories.

“I Want A Moon Base”

Whatever the merits of the case, Walt would seem to have a novel defense for his tax avoidance:

He was going to use the money to change the world. To fight for arms control and human rights. To promote family planning and space exploration. He was going to give the money away, starting next year…

… Anderson was one of the driving forces behind MirCorp, which sought to privatize Russia’s decrepit Mir space station and arranged for an American financier to take an excursion in space. MirCorp’s ambitions were dashed with the station’s demise.

But Anderson has remained passionate about space. “I want to build my own space station since we lost the Mir,” he said. “I want to have a moon base.”

It also has some interesting quotes from Jeff Manber and Bob Werb.

I believe him. Unfortunately, the government doesn’t view that as a good reason to stash funds overseas.

It would be nice if we could get some philanthropy going in this area from some less flaky sources. One of the reasons that we’ve made so little progress is that the people with the money aren’t interested in space, and the people interested in space haven’t had the money, and when on the rare occasion you get someone with both, there’s some other problem. I hope that the Paul Allens and Jeff Bezos’ of the world will start to change that.

NASA Watch has links to this and related stories.

“I Want A Moon Base”

Whatever the merits of the case, Walt would seem to have a novel defense for his tax avoidance:

He was going to use the money to change the world. To fight for arms control and human rights. To promote family planning and space exploration. He was going to give the money away, starting next year…

… Anderson was one of the driving forces behind MirCorp, which sought to privatize Russia’s decrepit Mir space station and arranged for an American financier to take an excursion in space. MirCorp’s ambitions were dashed with the station’s demise.

But Anderson has remained passionate about space. “I want to build my own space station since we lost the Mir,” he said. “I want to have a moon base.”

It also has some interesting quotes from Jeff Manber and Bob Werb.

I believe him. Unfortunately, the government doesn’t view that as a good reason to stash funds overseas.

It would be nice if we could get some philanthropy going in this area from some less flaky sources. One of the reasons that we’ve made so little progress is that the people with the money aren’t interested in space, and the people interested in space haven’t had the money, and when on the rare occasion you get someone with both, there’s some other problem. I hope that the Paul Allens and Jeff Bezos’ of the world will start to change that.

NASA Watch has links to this and related stories.

A Flawed Decision

Robert Zimmerman has a disturbing (though not surprising, at least to me) piece at Space Daily, which reports that NASA did no analysis in support of its original decision to cancel the planned Shuttle flight to repair Hubble, and ignored more viable options in favor of its misguided robotic gambit:

NASA historian Steven Dick gave a presentation at the American Association for the Advancement of Science annual meeting in Washington, in which he described the process by which that decision was made and revealed that, in fact, no formal risk analysis had been completed.

Dick had interviewed all of the NASA officials who had been involved in the decision to cancel the shuttle mission to the Hubble, a discussion that came to a head in December 2003 when those officials had been working on NASA’s fiscal year 2005 budget.

According to Dick’s interviews, risk was the major factor in the discussion, but the officials decided a formal risk analysis was unnecessary. Instead, Dick noted, “The decision was made (by O’Keefe) based on what he perceived was the risk.”

In other words, O’Keefe canceled the Hubble mission solely on his gut feeling of the situation. So, the only way NASA can provide the House Science Committee’s requested copy of that risk analysis from December 2003 is to recreate it after the fact.

I had always suspected this. I think that Sean O’Keefe was good for the agency, in terms of starting to get the books straightened out (a task that’s by no means complete), and starting to restructure it for the end of the Cold War, but I also think that he lost his nerve after having to stand on the tarmac and tell those families that their loved ones weren’t coming home two years ago. He simply didn’t want to have to risk doing that again. And that’s fine, but if so, he was no longer the man for the job, and perhaps didn’t step down soon enough, because it clearly adversely influenced the decision he made a year later. Spaceflight is inherently risky, and if we can’t accept that, as either a NASA administrator or a nation, then we have no business doing it.

And as Zimmerman concludes, that’s really what’s so disturbing about that decision, in terms of its potential implications for the future:

For NASA and the American space program, this increasingly untenable position is beginning to have a serious political cost. By refusing to reconsider their decision and reinstate the shuttle servicing mission to Hubble, NASA is undercutting its ability to persuade Congress to give it money to build spacecraft to fly humans back to the moon.

As Rep. Mark Udall, D-Colo., noted during those same science committee hearings, “If we’re unwilling to take the risks to go to Hubble, then what does that say about (our willingness to mount) a moon and eventual Mars mission?”

Or as Boehlert remarked, “In a budget as excruciatingly tight as this one, NASA probably should not get as much as the president has proposed.”

Unless President George W. Bush appoints a new NASA administrator with the courage to reverse the Hubble decision, he is going to find it increasingly difficult to persuade Congress – or anyone else, for that matter – that NASA has the wherewithal to handle his ambitious space initiative.

But it goes beyond the risk aversion. If the story is true, the changing stories and lack of data after the fact bring back memories of the Goldin years, in which some said that NASA stood for “Never A Straight Answer.” That was something that O’Keefe was supposed to fix, not contribute to, and it may take a further investigation with some mea culpas and credible recommendations for avoiding this sort of thing in the future, in order for NASA to gain the confidence needed, from both Congress and the public that still wonders why it’s about to lose one of the few NASA programs with genuine widespread support.