Mark Whittington is appropriately skeptical of the notion that obscure astrophysical discoveries will energize the public and maintain support for the Vision for Space Exploration:
As interesting as such things [as a magnetar explosion] are, I’m afraid that NASA need something else besides that to sustain public interest. I had never heard of this discovery before I read it in Blandford’s piece. It certainly did not supplant the death of the Pope, or Terri Schiavo or (please God) the Michael Jackson trial.
However, like the scientist he criticizes, he’s much too unobjective and overenthusiastic himself when he continues:
A human return to the Moon this year would have done all of those things.
Why?
What’s so exciting about NASA sending a few government employees back to the Moon? NASA’s been there, did that, got the hat, a third of a century ago. The public found it boring then. Why, in the twenty-first century, amidst the explosion of technological wonders that we’ve seen since, would they get jazzed about it now? What would make it so newsworthy as to knock the death of a great Pope off the headlines? Why is NASA astronauts walking around on the Moon any more fascinating to a modern, jaded public than NASA astronauts circling the earth in a can, something that is never in the news unless something goes wrong?
I can tell you that, as a die-hard space enthusiast, I sure can’t get excited about it. In fact, I don’t think that the current VSE, at least as put forth by some of the major contractors (and like the Shuttle and ISS), is worth the money. And I (unlike most of the public) actually know what a tiny percentage of the federal budget it constitutes. If Mark can’t sell me on it, why does he think that those who don’t have that much interest in space (the vast majority, at least when it comes to relative depth of interest), and think that NASA consumes half the federal budget, will be excited?
I will tell you what might have knocked those other things off the headlines, at least temporarily (at least based on the response to the SpaceShipOne flights)–if Paul Allen walked on the Moon, with his own money, and was selling tickets so that others could do so.
[Update at 11:20 AM EDT]
Mark replies with a post that’s mostly straw.
The way the Vision for Space Exploration is shaping up will make it a bit different than Apollo. It will not, ultimately, consists of just “a few government employees.”
That remains to be seen. My point (and my only point, really) is that contra Mark’s claim, NASA astronauts walking on the Moon per se will not excite the public much more than space science discoveries, or knock other stories out of the news. I think that most people are pretty jaded about technological advances, unless they can see how they’ll actually affect their own lives. If NASA can show how astronauts on the Moon will do that, then it may be sustainable. If they can’t, it will be Apollo redux.
I do think he sells people short, projecting his feelings and assuming that most people share them. I think (again) the polling data backs me up.
That’s pretty amusing, considering that I think that’s exactly what he’s doing. I’m not aware of any polling data that backs him up. He’ll have to show some, rather than simply asserting it, if he wants to convince me or (I would hope) my readers.
By the way, he also has a new column about the promise of Mike Griffin.
[One more update, at 11:55]
I should add that when Mark writes in comments that “It’s virtually certain that the first human return to the Moon will be the biggest story of the next decade,” he displays a paucity of imagination about potential stories of the next decade (and once again confuses his own interests and preferences for those of the masses).
Bigger than a cure for cancer? Or indefinite life extension? Or artificial intelligence, or artificial life? Or the opening of a major LEO space hotel by Disney? Or a major terrorist attack killing thousands or millions? Or a 9+ earthquake in Seattle? Things like that will be knocked out of contention simply by a repeat of something we already did a third of a century ago?
I seriously doubt it.