In tomorrow’s New York Times, they call for the cancellation of Shuttle and ISS. I called for it last June. Seems like a long shot still.

Jeff Foust points to a memo that indicates agreement between NASA and the DoD on new launch systems. Read the comments, too (not just my continuing frustration with the man-rating myth, but the last one by Jim Muncy).

Rich Lowry says that it’s time to retire the Shuttle. He doesn’t really say anything new. Or wrong, as far as it goes.

But he hurts his case (at least with me) by citing Gregg Easterbrook. And there seems to be no recognition in his post of the potential for any non-NASA space activities, though it’s not possible to come up with any kind of sensible policy prescriptions without such a recognition. I also find it frustrating that these calls for ending the program are for the wrong reasons, when the best reason is (and always has been) that the program is a ghastly failure from the standpoint of cost and making spaceflight routine, which was its original goal.

Here are a couple of unprecedented views of an Orbiter in orbit.

Jim Oberg emails that Phil Klass has died:

Phil was a friend and colleague for more than thirty years, an award-winning technical journalist specializing in avionics, for ‘Aviation Week’ magazine. His iron will carried him through his last difficult years against physical hardships brought on by age and medical errors. He had a bulldog persistence in digging into stories most journalists considered too technical, too difficult, or even too un-researchable, both in military and civilian aviation and space systems, and in his pastime of ‘UFO stories’. He aroused fierce enmity in many circles, most of it a credit to his percing intellect and acerbic wit, and if one is best measured by the enemies one makes, Phil had even more reason to be proud. I was proud of him and proud to be his friend.

Nadya [Phil’s wife] went on to say that funeral services will be held at Mt. Lebanon Cemetery, plot 18-4, Section 8B, at 11:30 a.m. on Sunday, August 14. They will be in ‘Temple Micah Cemetery’, located at 2829 Wisconsin Avenue, interment at Mt. Lebanon Cemetery, which is located at 9500 Riggs Rd., Adelphi, MD (DC suburb).

My prediction was borne out. Except it was a day late. And on the other side of the country.

Taylor Dinerman has a new review of an old book. There seem to be only two copies available. With all of the Apollo nostalgia going around these days (especially at NASA) I’d bet there’s a market for a new printing. The proceeds would go to a brave and noble woman, who could use some legal (and sadly, medical) help.

Elon Musk seems to be planning an EELV killer. And I’ve added Jon Goff’s Selenian Boondocks to the blogroll, as well as an Air Force procurement officer’s blog (he’s stationed at Kirtland, but reports on Musk’s visit to Wright-Patt recently, where he seems to have been training) from which Jon got the story, and he seems at first glance to be interested in space procurement. In addition to the SpaceX story, Jon has a lot of good reportage of the recent Return to the Moon conference, and some appropriate criticism of NASA’s new lunar return architecture.

A few weeks ago, I solicited suggestions for additions to the space blogroll, and am embarrassed to admit that I never got around to doing the update, so here’s a second call. If you have a partial or fully space blog that you think that Transterrestrial readers will find interesting, point it out in comments (in other words, I’m actually inviting comment spammers to post here, as long as it’s the right flavor), and I’ll try to actually do an update this time, but if nothing else, you’ll get a little PR from the comments section.

“J. Random American” has a bit of fascinating deja vu from Aviation Week about Shuttle tile repair, and some good questions to which I don’t know the answers off the top of my head:

The similarity of the rest of the system to the original tps repair kit makes me curious about the circumstances under which the original tps repair system development was abandoned. Do we have some new 21st century technology that is essential to making it work which just wasn

Clark Lindsey touched some nerves at Hobbyspace with his post on flights at $100/lb.

I think we all agree that costs are high now and that in some rosy future with high demand, mass production, high utilization rates, R&D amortized over many units, continuous improvement from families of commercial rockets developed by the same team and other kinds of standard obtanium can get the price down to some single digit multiple of the fuel cost. It probably won’t be 3 like aircraft, but even if it’s 9, that’s only $180/lb at current fuel prices.

The questions are, “How?” and “How soon?” There are a variety of ways to increase utilization. The one economists favor is firms that can’t cover costs going out of business so that the ones that can increase their utilization. For that, we need to get all the governments out of the subsidized rocket business. Another is to really grow demand. I am working on that one.

For “How soon?”, we appear to be a factor of 20 away from $100/lb. If Elon makes $500/lb by 2010 then we will be a factor of 5 away. If improvements continue at that pace, we might see $100/lb in 2015. Others will say we won’t see those prices for 300 years. The latter seems moot to me. At $500/lb, that
is $100,000 to deliver 200lbs to orbit. That looks to me like a price point that would support millions of tourists even if no further improvements in technology are made. Of course, millions of tourists is inconsistent with low utilization and low flight rates that are required to justify high capital costs. (If you throw in ejections seats, non-recyclables and so on, you can still get a week in orbit for much less than the millions that is the current conventional wisdom for the early retail prices).

There is the possibility of a disruptive technology getting us to skip to an interesting future. E.g., a space elevator at $100/lb. would grow demand for rocket propulsion at geo-synch, on the Moon, in LEO, lunar orbit and lots of other places that become accessible for a cheap outgoing trip.