Category Archives: Popular Culture

Mathematics, Media Criticism, Political Commentary, Popular Culture

Trump’s Empire State Victory

57 Comments

…changes nothing.

It’s still going to be very hard for that Democrat to win the Republican nomination.

[Update a few minutes later]

Don’t confuse primary success with general success:

Now, there’s no reason in principle why a candidate who wins “only” 12 or 13 million votes in the primaries (or even just five or six or seven million) could not win a general election. That depends entirely on the candidate and his campaign. But the point here is that even a terrific primary performance offers zero evidence that a candidate actually can win a general election. As all of the head-to-head polling illustrates, it isn’t even a sign that that said candidate would perform better in a general election than other candidates who got fewer votes in the primaries.

This is especially true in Trump’s case. His hard-core supporters fail to comprehend just how deeply unpopular he is with everybody else outside their relatively small group. According to the last eight polls taken on the question, Trump has an unfavorable rating of between 60 and 70 percent among the general population that will vote in the 2016 election. He is not that much more popular than the ebola virus. (Although no virus has ever tried to run for president, so we cannot be sure.)

Trump supporters seem to be quite delusional about this. There is no one who doesn’t have an opinion about him at this point — he has no up side. When someone as well known as him can’t beat someone as unpopular as Hillary Clinton, it would be insane to make him the nominee (particularly when it would be one Democrat versus another).

[Afternoon update]

Classless Crybaby Wants To Be America’s Complainer-in-Chief.

Rick Wilson is a cruel man, but fair.

[Thursday-morning update]

GOP delegates: Trump’s attacks may backfire on him.

You don’t say.

[Bumped]

[Update a while later]

D. C. McAllister agrees with me; Trump and his supporters don’t understand our system of government.

Media Criticism, Political Commentary, Popular Culture, Social Commentary

Russian Actors And Seminar Callers

11 Comments

An interesting theory about the Trump phenomenon:

No doubt some of the protestors at Trump events protesting against Trump were also paid protestors. But what if much of the social agitation online for Trump is manufactured?

On radio, I assure you it is. Last Tuesday night, my radio show saw a wave of callers calling in to complain about what I was saying that very night on radio. The callers assured my call screener they were listening. The calls were coming from area codes all over the nation and they were very angry about what I had just said on the radio that very night about Trump.

I was on vacation. The guest host had been talking about local matters and had not even mentioned Trump. Hello, seminar callers. Likewise, many of the calls to my radio station demanding I be fired or disciplined for insulting Trump have come from people making statements about my radio show that clearly indicate they have not listened to the show or the station.

Similarly, whenever I get a wave of emails attacking me for things about Trump, frequently the same IP address pops up. On Twitter, the waves come from people with rarely used or new Twitter accounts that are suddenly all in for Trump — every tweet an attack against someone or Trump propaganda. More often than not, the accounts have pictures of someone other than the the person tweeting and most do not use real names.

Certainly it could be people with low social connectedness, as Michael Barone has noted, but it sure seems odd to suddenly get a a wave of #whitegenocide tweets from accounts that are just suddenly active and all in to attack people who oppose Trump.

Donald Trump right now has support from about 35% of the smaller of the two American political parties. That is different from 35% of the nation as a whole. His polling is so terrible, Utah, Mississippi, Georgia, North Carolina, and other states become in play for Hillary Clinton in ways they would not with a different candidate.

But his supporters are convinced they are actually a majority because they have entered an echo chamber (and a cult) where everyone agrees with them, they are the loudest voices, and they don’t see anyone online who can stand up to the overwhelming presence of Trump support. Everywhere they turn there are more people just like them.

Given that Trump has only the support of a third of the smaller of the two American political parties, that level of support makes no sense unless there is more than meets the eye.

I think this is definitely a part of it.

Media Criticism, Political Commentary, Popular Culture

Trump’s Wisconsin Debacle

53 Comments

I agree with Ed Morrissey: Even ignoring what a terrible president he would be, I think it showed that he would be a disastrous candidate in the general election as a Republican.

It only took two weeks for Trump to demolish what looked like a lock in Wisconsin. His campaign spent weeks in Wisconsin, and yet did nothing to learn what voters there think or what they want in a nominee. Trump’s fortnight was a disaster of his own making, and a glimpse of the high risk a Trump general election candidacy would provide the GOP.

That risk might be tolerable if Trump gave an indication that he recognized the problem. In his statement after the loss, however, Trump instead railed about having to endure an “onslaught” of negative advertising and hostile media. Just what does Trump expect to find in the general election if he wins the nomination? If Trump folds only because of negative advertising and hostile media, that alone should have unbound delegates thinking twice about a Trump nomination, especially with Hillary Clinton and a mainstream media already hostile to Republicans waiting after the conventions.

He’s worse than ignorant. He’s incapable of learning.