I was thinking this last night as well. It’s not as strong as it looked:
We won’t know the exact numbers until Wednesday, but it looks as though Trump will, by some estimates, finish with somewhere in the neighborhood of 245 delegates. A week ago, that would have been a worst-case scenario for his Super Tuesday. It gets worse: Cruz won resounding victories in Texas and Oklahoma. He trails Trump in the delegate haul for the night by only about 60 delegates. And when you put together the not-Trump share, Rubio and Cruz (and Kasich) will top out around 320 delegates to Trump’s 245 (or so). He’s still falling way short of half the delegates.
There’s more evidence of Trump weakness if you look closely: Why did he lose Oklahoma? Because it’s the only state where the vote was restricted to actual Republicans. Which further bolsters the case that Trump is not leading a revolt from within the party, but staging a hostile takeover of it.
Yes. The RNC’s primary process is idiotic, in that it’s set up to allow non-Republicans select their nominee.
The single most shocking number from Super Tuesday might have been this poll showing voter awareness about various aspects of Trump: Only 27 percent had heard about his reluctance to denounce David Duke and the KKK; 20 percent about Trump University and the fraud lawsuit; 13 percent about the failure of Trump Mortgage.
At some point, those numbers will all be at 90 percent because someone will spend a lot of money putting ads about them all over television in battleground states. The only question is whether it will be conservatives or Hillary Clinton who expose voters to this information. Either way, it suggests that Trump still has the potential for downward mobility if conservative donors are serious about stopping him.
Of course, you can spend your life flyspecking trend lines. And Trump could continue to lose momentum over the next four weeks and still grind his way to the nomination. Winning is what matters.
But if you believe that stopping Trump matters too, then Super Tuesday offered evidence this goal is achievable.
We opened with Sly Stallone but we’ll close with Arnold and a great line Predator: “If it bleeds, we can kill it.” That’s true of Trumpism. Maybe Trump will be the nominee. That’s where you’d put your money if forced to bet on it. But it’s not a foregone conclusion. And if anything, Super Tuesday proved both Trump’s strength and his vulnerability.
Yes. It isn’t too late to stop him, but it would sure help if the non-Trumpers could coalesce. Kasich almost certainly gave Virginia to Trump.
[Late-morning update]
Aaaaand Carson is out. So, is Kasich cutting a deal with Trump, or staying in under the delusion that an Ohio win will somehow propel him to ultimate victory?
[Thursday-morning update]
The Trump tipping point. What strikes me about the Trump supporters is how utterly ideologically incoherent they are. Just like him. If you could go with either Trump or Sanders, you have no political principles, other than “the guy who will give me stuff I want.”
[Update Thursday afternoon]
Trump wants to make America great again. Like Denmark.
And the GOP establishment had it coming. No question about that.